#FedWatch 🚨 MONEY MARKETS NOW SEE AN 81% CHANCE THE FED HIKES AGAIN IN DECEMBER, AND GOLD IS FIGHTING FOR $4,000.
Here's what hit this morning:
Q3 GDP (FXStreet): 3.4%. Forecast: 3.2%.
Core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge (FXStreet): 3.1%. Right on forecast.
Jobless claims (FXStreet): 194K. Forecast: 199K.
Odds of a December rate HIKE (Prime Terminal, via FXStreet): 84% this morning. 81% now.
That's money betting the Fed hikes AGAIN. Not cuts. Hikes.
A hot economy AND sticky inflation in the same morning.
The Fed held yesterday at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10 to 2. BOTH dissents wanted a HIKE.
The Fed already hiked once this year, on September 16. The first hike since 2023.
Now the tape:
Gold (CNBC): $4,009. DOWN $58.
Today's high: $4,069. Today's low: $4,007.
That's $73 off yesterday's Fed day high of $4,083, and about 11% under the 200 day average.
Silver (CNBC): DOWN 3.5%.
The S&P 500 (CNBC): DOWN 0.6%.
The dollar index (CNBC): 101.99. DOWN 0.2%.
The 10 year Treasury yield (CNBC): 4.99%. DOWN 5 basis points.
WTI crude (CNBC): $101.99. Brent: $114.78.
The 2 year (CNBC): 4.66%. The VIX: 16.96.
The yen (CNBC): 157.87 per dollar.
Gold is snapping a 3 day winning streak. And it now sits about $1,589 under January's $5,598 record.
A weaker dollar should HELP gold.
Lower yields should HELP gold.
Yet gold is DOWN $58 and fighting for $4,000.
Here's why gold is falling anyway:
A 3.4% economy with core inflation stuck at 3.1% is exactly what keeps a Fed hiking.
Every hike makes a metal that pays ZERO more expensive to hold.
And when stocks drop, big money sells what it can sell fastest. Gold and silver are first in line.
Silver down 3.5% is the tell. This is selling for cash, not a dollar story.
Here's what the last hike did to gold:
September 16. The Fed hiked at 2 PM New York.
Gold dropped $48 in the first 15 minutes.
It never bounced. It fell another $46 by the close. $94 gone in one afternoon.
That day gold started near $4,356. Today it's sitting near $4,000.
$PARTI $BLESS $BEAT
Here's what hit this morning:
Q3 GDP (FXStreet): 3.4%. Forecast: 3.2%.
Core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge (FXStreet): 3.1%. Right on forecast.
Jobless claims (FXStreet): 194K. Forecast: 199K.
Odds of a December rate HIKE (Prime Terminal, via FXStreet): 84% this morning. 81% now.
That's money betting the Fed hikes AGAIN. Not cuts. Hikes.
A hot economy AND sticky inflation in the same morning.
The Fed held yesterday at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10 to 2. BOTH dissents wanted a HIKE.
The Fed already hiked once this year, on September 16. The first hike since 2023.
Now the tape:
Gold (CNBC): $4,009. DOWN $58.
Today's high: $4,069. Today's low: $4,007.
That's $73 off yesterday's Fed day high of $4,083, and about 11% under the 200 day average.
Silver (CNBC): DOWN 3.5%.
The S&P 500 (CNBC): DOWN 0.6%.
The dollar index (CNBC): 101.99. DOWN 0.2%.
The 10 year Treasury yield (CNBC): 4.99%. DOWN 5 basis points.
WTI crude (CNBC): $101.99. Brent: $114.78.
The 2 year (CNBC): 4.66%. The VIX: 16.96.
The yen (CNBC): 157.87 per dollar.
Gold is snapping a 3 day winning streak. And it now sits about $1,589 under January's $5,598 record.
A weaker dollar should HELP gold.
Lower yields should HELP gold.
Yet gold is DOWN $58 and fighting for $4,000.
Here's why gold is falling anyway:
A 3.4% economy with core inflation stuck at 3.1% is exactly what keeps a Fed hiking.
Every hike makes a metal that pays ZERO more expensive to hold.
And when stocks drop, big money sells what it can sell fastest. Gold and silver are first in line.
Silver down 3.5% is the tell. This is selling for cash, not a dollar story.
Here's what the last hike did to gold:
September 16. The Fed hiked at 2 PM New York.
Gold dropped $48 in the first 15 minutes.
It never bounced. It fell another $46 by the close. $94 gone in one afternoon.
That day gold started near $4,356. Today it's sitting near $4,000.
$PARTI $BLESS $BEAT
