Bitcoin recovered from around $79,000 toward $81,000 just before one of the most important macro events of the week.
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BTC is recovering, but today the Fed could completely change the story.
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Markets largely expect rates to remain unchanged, so my focus is more on Kevin Warsh’s tone and what he signals about a possible December rate hike.
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A patient tone could help Bitcoin continue higher. A hawkish message could strengthen the U.S. Dollar and quickly bring sellers back.
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I also wouldn’t rule out False Breakouts in both directions before the market chooses its real direction.
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Technical Analysis
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Bitcoin is now approaching a major resistance cluster:
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Resistance Zone: ($81,950-$83,000)
PRZ: ($81,780-$82,180)
Short Liquidation: ($82,170-$82,720)
Monthly Pivot: $81,995
Key Level: $81,740
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BTC has broken above a Symmetrical Triangle, supporting the short-term recovery.
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However, Elliott Wave also suggests the Double Three Correction (W-X-Y) may be approaching completion.
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My current scenario is for $BTC to first attack this resistance structure, but I still expect a bearish correction afterward toward the Support Zone ($80,680-$81,100) and potentially the CME Gap ($80,715-$80,840).
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If Warsh is more hawkish than expected, the correction could become much sharper.
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Trade Setup
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TP1: $81,230
TP2: $80,770
SL: $82,820
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Key Levels: $80,250 | $80,620 | $81,740
Long Liquidation: ($80,000-$80,250)
Long Liquidation: ($78,580-$79,420)
CME Gap: ($80,715-$80,840)
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Educational Note:
The first move during FOMC can easily be a trap. I prefer to wait for volatility to settle and see whether Bitcoin can actually hold above or below the key levels.
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Another event to watch is the October 30 Bitcoin options expiration, which could add more volatility later this week.
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Today, risk management matters more than prediction.
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Which comes first?
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🔴 $80,770
🟢 $82,820