Okay!! I’m watching September CPI closely and it’s mostly because of oil.
Crude has been jumpy with the Middle East situation and US energy costs are creeping up again. My read is that oil can still go higher but it really depends on whether there are actual supply problems or whether demand is strong enough to hold prices up. Those are different stories.
The part I care about is the Fed. If energy pushes CPI above what people expect the market may start asking whether another hike is back on the table this year. That would likely push Treasury yields up and hit existing bond prices. A soft print or calmer headlines could easily reverse that.
So here’s what I’m watching:
Where Brent goes, and whether the supply news is real
Actual September CPI vs. consensus
How yields and Fed pricing move in the hours after the release
I’m not chasing oil here and I’m not going big on bonds before the data. I’d rather wait for the print see how the market reacts and look for confirmation. Protecting capital matters more to me than calling every move.
The question I’m really asking is whether this CPI surprises enough to change the Fed outlook not just whether it comes in hot.
What’s your take? Do you think oil pushes inflation higher and do yields follow?
#CPIWatch
#MooDCirCuiT #Aeri
Crude has been jumpy with the Middle East situation and US energy costs are creeping up again. My read is that oil can still go higher but it really depends on whether there are actual supply problems or whether demand is strong enough to hold prices up. Those are different stories.
The part I care about is the Fed. If energy pushes CPI above what people expect the market may start asking whether another hike is back on the table this year. That would likely push Treasury yields up and hit existing bond prices. A soft print or calmer headlines could easily reverse that.
So here’s what I’m watching:
Where Brent goes, and whether the supply news is real
Actual September CPI vs. consensus
How yields and Fed pricing move in the hours after the release
I’m not chasing oil here and I’m not going big on bonds before the data. I’d rather wait for the print see how the market reacts and look for confirmation. Protecting capital matters more to me than calling every move.
The question I’m really asking is whether this CPI surprises enough to change the Fed outlook not just whether it comes in hot.
What’s your take? Do you think oil pushes inflation higher and do yields follow?
#CPIWatch
#MooDCirCuiT #Aeri