Bitcoin's weekly close near $86.5K on October 4 was its highest in eight months, since the last week of January. That January close landed at about the same price, then BTC slid toward $60K in early February, roughly 30%. That's the comparison behind the "trap" call.
The case for something different is real. #BTC has now closed above the May high near $82.8K on the weekly, and Q3 gained about 43%, one of its best third quarters on record. Crypto Rover has already called the bear market over.
Benjamin Cowen's objection deserves weight, though. After BTC reclaims the 50-week average it usually runs 20% to 30%, and this time it hasn't. This was also its fourth attempt to break higher since September 21, with the $87,570 yearly open still overhead.
Under the surface, momentum looks thinner than the headline. Glassnode flagged lower buyer dominance than mid-September, and one weekly outlook noted the push was carried by leverage, with open interest up 10% while spot ETFs bought $82.9M against $2.4B the week before.
Now the test has arrived. BTC closed Friday at $82,123, down 2.8% from the prior Friday as oil, rate-hike expectations and Middle East tension weighed, just under that $82.8K level. This weekend's weekly close shows whether it was a breakout retest or a failed one.
My read is that neither label fits yet. A hold above $82.8K keeps the breakout case alive. A close back below it makes January's analog look a lot more relevant.
$BTC #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Altcoin Season#
The case for something different is real. #BTC has now closed above the May high near $82.8K on the weekly, and Q3 gained about 43%, one of its best third quarters on record. Crypto Rover has already called the bear market over.
Benjamin Cowen's objection deserves weight, though. After BTC reclaims the 50-week average it usually runs 20% to 30%, and this time it hasn't. This was also its fourth attempt to break higher since September 21, with the $87,570 yearly open still overhead.
Under the surface, momentum looks thinner than the headline. Glassnode flagged lower buyer dominance than mid-September, and one weekly outlook noted the push was carried by leverage, with open interest up 10% while spot ETFs bought $82.9M against $2.4B the week before.
Now the test has arrived. BTC closed Friday at $82,123, down 2.8% from the prior Friday as oil, rate-hike expectations and Middle East tension weighed, just under that $82.8K level. This weekend's weekly close shows whether it was a breakout retest or a failed one.
My read is that neither label fits yet. A hold above $82.8K keeps the breakout case alive. A close back below it makes January's analog look a lot more relevant.
$BTC #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Altcoin Season#