๐จ BREAKING: ๐บ๐ธ Americans Say the Economy Feels Worse Than Ever Recorded
The University of Michigan's gauge of current economic conditions reportedly plunged 12.2% this month to 44.7, the lowest reading on record. That's gloomier than the depths of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID crash.
But notice the key word: feels. This survey measures how households perceive the economy, not GDP, and the gap between the two is the real story.
On paper, the US economy isn't collapsing. September's flash PMI showed business activity at a five-year high, and unemployment sits at 4.2%. What's crushing the mood is prices. Diesel hit a record this fall, everyday costs stayed sticky, and pay growth just slowed to its weakest pace since 2021. When paychecks lag prices, people feel poorer even when headline data looks fine.
Sentiment has also been stuck near historic lows since 2022 while spending kept going, so a record low isn't an automatic recession signal.
For crypto, this cuts both ways. Gloomy consumers plus a soft jobs report make it harder for the Fed to keep hiking, which helps risk assets. But a squeezed consumer eventually spends less, and that can drag on everything.
Watch September CPI on October 14 and the Fed's October 28 decision. If inflation cools, the gloom could turn into rate relief.
Not financial advice. $BTC
$CL
$XAU
The University of Michigan's gauge of current economic conditions reportedly plunged 12.2% this month to 44.7, the lowest reading on record. That's gloomier than the depths of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID crash.
But notice the key word: feels. This survey measures how households perceive the economy, not GDP, and the gap between the two is the real story.
On paper, the US economy isn't collapsing. September's flash PMI showed business activity at a five-year high, and unemployment sits at 4.2%. What's crushing the mood is prices. Diesel hit a record this fall, everyday costs stayed sticky, and pay growth just slowed to its weakest pace since 2021. When paychecks lag prices, people feel poorer even when headline data looks fine.
Sentiment has also been stuck near historic lows since 2022 while spending kept going, so a record low isn't an automatic recession signal.
For crypto, this cuts both ways. Gloomy consumers plus a soft jobs report make it harder for the Fed to keep hiking, which helps risk assets. But a squeezed consumer eventually spends less, and that can drag on everything.
Watch September CPI on October 14 and the Fed's October 28 decision. If inflation cools, the gloom could turn into rate relief.
Not financial advice. $BTC
$CL
$XAU