$UNH reports Tuesday premarket. Street wants EPS $4.12 (+41% YoY), revenue $111.3B (slight YoY dip). They've beaten four straight quarters — last one crushed by 29%. FY guide sits at $19.50-20, already raised.
The number itself? Probably fine. Real trade is the 2027 Medicare Advantage guide. That's where the stock moves. If they sound cautious on MA reimbursement or enrollment trends, you'll see vol spike and downside pressure. If they hold firm or raise confidence, call spreads print.
I'm watching options flow into the close Monday. If put skew gets heavy, I'm selling a bull put spread below $500 (assuming current price near $520s). If calls load up, I'll grab a $530/$540 call spread for the guide pop. Invalidation is a guide cut or weak MA commentary — out same day if that hits.
This isn't a blind earnings lottery. It's a guide read on a $500B healthcare giant with regulatory risk baked in. Size accordingly. What's your setup?
The number itself? Probably fine. Real trade is the 2027 Medicare Advantage guide. That's where the stock moves. If they sound cautious on MA reimbursement or enrollment trends, you'll see vol spike and downside pressure. If they hold firm or raise confidence, call spreads print.
I'm watching options flow into the close Monday. If put skew gets heavy, I'm selling a bull put spread below $500 (assuming current price near $520s). If calls load up, I'll grab a $530/$540 call spread for the guide pop. Invalidation is a guide cut or weak MA commentary — out same day if that hits.
This isn't a blind earnings lottery. It's a guide read on a $500B healthcare giant with regulatory risk baked in. Size accordingly. What's your setup?