I opened a position with exposure to $MU . My bet is that AI changes Micron's earnings power, not that record profits last forever.
Micron delivered extraordinary FY2026 results:
• $133.19B revenue
• $74.33 GAAP EPS
• $62.31B adjusted free cash flow
But here's why I'm not blindly bullish.
Micron lost $5.34 per share in FY2023. Just three years later, its gross margin reached 80.7%.
That's the opportunity and the risk.
AI, especially HBM and data-center memory, could support stronger demand and profitability for years.
But memory remains cyclical. High prices encourage new capacity, and today's exceptional margins may not survive the next supply expansion.
Record earnings don't automatically mean a stock is cheap.
I'm watching whether Micron can maintain strong margins and generate cash after capex as new supply arrives.
If pricing weakens and cash generation deteriorates, my thesis weakens too.
I'm not betting that Micron's record earnings repeat forever. I'm betting its earnings power through the next cycle will be stronger than before.
Micron delivered extraordinary FY2026 results:
• $133.19B revenue
• $74.33 GAAP EPS
• $62.31B adjusted free cash flow
But here's why I'm not blindly bullish.
Micron lost $5.34 per share in FY2023. Just three years later, its gross margin reached 80.7%.
That's the opportunity and the risk.
AI, especially HBM and data-center memory, could support stronger demand and profitability for years.
But memory remains cyclical. High prices encourage new capacity, and today's exceptional margins may not survive the next supply expansion.
Record earnings don't automatically mean a stock is cheap.
I'm watching whether Micron can maintain strong margins and generate cash after capex as new supply arrives.
If pricing weakens and cash generation deteriorates, my thesis weakens too.
I'm not betting that Micron's record earnings repeat forever. I'm betting its earnings power through the next cycle will be stronger than before.