My FIL plan: LONG around 1.1720–1.1730. I’m buying the pullback on paper, not claiming an executed trade.
MY VIEW
I lean higher over four hours, with low confidence. Below 1.1584, the idea is wrong. This is an active entry; an early stop-out is possible.
CONTEXT
Hourly and 4h trends point up. Price sits above session VWAP at 1.1676 but below the 15m EMA20: momentum has cooled. Support at 1.1600 gives the plan its invalidation area. I’m not treating the bounce as guaranteed.
4-HOUR SCENARIOS
Close above 1.18922: 26%; between 1.15598 and 1.18922: 52%; below 1.15598: 22%. Historical, uncalibrated frequencies from 120 non-overlapping samples. Respective 95% intervals: 19–34%, 44–61%, 15–30%. These are not win rates; range remains the most frequent outcome.
THE TRADE
LONG 1.1720–1.1730. Hard stop 1.1584. TP1 1.2046; TP2 1.2110, prior hourly highs. Worst-entry net R:R: 1.80/2.19 after 0.16% costs. Risk 0.5%; no high leverage.
DATA NOTE
Binance candles through October 6, 17:59 UTC+7; live quote checked separately.
$FIL #FIL #TradingPlan #molang
Not financial advice.
MY VIEW
I lean higher over four hours, with low confidence. Below 1.1584, the idea is wrong. This is an active entry; an early stop-out is possible.
CONTEXT
Hourly and 4h trends point up. Price sits above session VWAP at 1.1676 but below the 15m EMA20: momentum has cooled. Support at 1.1600 gives the plan its invalidation area. I’m not treating the bounce as guaranteed.
4-HOUR SCENARIOS
Close above 1.18922: 26%; between 1.15598 and 1.18922: 52%; below 1.15598: 22%. Historical, uncalibrated frequencies from 120 non-overlapping samples. Respective 95% intervals: 19–34%, 44–61%, 15–30%. These are not win rates; range remains the most frequent outcome.
THE TRADE
LONG 1.1720–1.1730. Hard stop 1.1584. TP1 1.2046; TP2 1.2110, prior hourly highs. Worst-entry net R:R: 1.80/2.19 after 0.16% costs. Risk 0.5%; no high leverage.
DATA NOTE
Binance candles through October 6, 17:59 UTC+7; live quote checked separately.
$FIL #FIL #TradingPlan #molang
Not financial advice.