$2Z ’s October 2 unlock is being sold as a simple 47.7% supply shock. The number is real only against the old float.

About 1.65 billion $2Z is scheduled to unlock at 00:00 UTC, with the largest tranches going to Jump Crypto, Malbec Labs, institutions and the team. #CoinMarketCap. still shows 3.47 billion tokens circulating, which makes the event nearly 48% of float. #DeFiLlama and Tokenomist already show roughly 5.11 billion, effectively counting the post-unlock supply; on that base, the same event is about 32%.

That accounting gap matters more than the headline. $2Z is already down roughly 9% over 24 hours, but funding is mixed across venues rather than showing one clean crowded short.

The useful confirmation comes after the unlock: watch whether recipient wallets send tokens to exchanges and whether spot volume can absorb them. No deposits, no automatic dump. Heavy deposits with weak bids would validate the bearish thesis.