$MU FY2026 Q4 Earnings — Bullish, But the Guidance Is the Real Test
My take: BULLISH on MU post-earnings — with one condition: Micron must prove the AI memory cycle is still expanding, not peaking at record margins.
Q4 setup: Micron guided for $50B ± $1B revenue and ~86% gross margin, versus 84.9% non-GAAP GM in Q3. The market is already pricing in a major step-up.
Can GM break 86%? I think 86% can be exceeded if DRAM pricing and high-value AI products remain tight. Goldman Sachs reportedly modeled 87.3% for Q4. The bigger question is whether margins can stay elevated into FY2027 as supply expands.
Memory supercycle: Micron expects DRAM and NAND supply-demand conditions to remain tight beyond 2027, pointing to a longer AI-driven memory cycle.
HBM4 race: Micron is already shipping HBM4 at high volume and says its HBM4 12-high ramp is 2× faster than HBM3E, with >$1B HBM4 revenue shipped.
The competition remains intense: Q2 HBM revenue share was approximately SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33%, Micron 18%.
Bottom line:
The bullish thesis strengthens if Micron delivers >86% GM + strong FY2027 commentary + accelerating HBM4 capacity. The biggest risk isn't a weak quarter—it’s strong numbers followed by weaker forward expectations.
Are you trading the earnings volatility, holding MU through the report, or waiting for guidance first?
#EarningsSeason #MU
My take: BULLISH on MU post-earnings — with one condition: Micron must prove the AI memory cycle is still expanding, not peaking at record margins.
Q4 setup: Micron guided for $50B ± $1B revenue and ~86% gross margin, versus 84.9% non-GAAP GM in Q3. The market is already pricing in a major step-up.
Can GM break 86%? I think 86% can be exceeded if DRAM pricing and high-value AI products remain tight. Goldman Sachs reportedly modeled 87.3% for Q4. The bigger question is whether margins can stay elevated into FY2027 as supply expands.
Memory supercycle: Micron expects DRAM and NAND supply-demand conditions to remain tight beyond 2027, pointing to a longer AI-driven memory cycle.
HBM4 race: Micron is already shipping HBM4 at high volume and says its HBM4 12-high ramp is 2× faster than HBM3E, with >$1B HBM4 revenue shipped.
The competition remains intense: Q2 HBM revenue share was approximately SK hynix 50%, Samsung 33%, Micron 18%.
Bottom line:
The bullish thesis strengthens if Micron delivers >86% GM + strong FY2027 commentary + accelerating HBM4 capacity. The biggest risk isn't a weak quarter—it’s strong numbers followed by weaker forward expectations.
Are you trading the earnings volatility, holding MU through the report, or waiting for guidance first?
#EarningsSeason #MU
