Retail investors appear to be reassessing their earlier optimism amid news of oil-price volatility and persistently rising U.S. Treasury yields. According to Sina Finance, Vanda Research data showed that over the past 20 trading days, retail net buying of individual stocks totaled just $1 billion, the lowest level in at least two years for that 20-day period.

By comparison, retail buying of individual stocks in the 20 trading days through April 2025 was slightly above $20 billion. The measure has trended lower since then, with only temporary rebounds, and has weakened again recently. Over the past 20 trading days, total retail stock purchases fell to about $10 billion, near the lowest level since October 2024.

A strategist at The Kobeissi Letter said retail investors are becoming increasingly cautious. At the same time, institutional funds are betting the market can withstand the latest wave of economic concerns without suffering a major setback.

Despite elevated oil prices and surging U.S. Treasury yields, the S&P 500 remains near record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings growth this year. Analysts expect third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise nearly 29% year over year. Strong fundamentals have helped offset pressure from higher discount rates.

AI optimism has also reignited market sentiment, bringing back the trading logic around the “Magnificent Seven” and drawing renewed buying into shares such as Meta and Nvidia. Matt Maley, chief strategist at Miller Tabak, said technology will continue to lead the stock market in the foreseeable future, and that whether the Magnificent Seven can hold recent gains, especially whether chip stocks can regain strong upward momentum, will be key to the market’s direction for the rest of this year and beyond.