Richmond Fed manufacturing still hanging on above 50 in September. Barely.
When you adjust for ISM methodology it comes in at 50.8. That's technically expansion but feels more like treading water than real momentum.
Manufacturing has been the canary in the coal mine for months now. These readings that hover right around the breakeven line tell you businesses aren't panicking but they're not exactly confident either. They're waiting. Watching. Conserving capital.
The gap between what the data says (slight expansion) and what it feels like (stagnation) is where the real story lives. This is what late cycle looks like before anyone wants to admit it's late cycle.
When you adjust for ISM methodology it comes in at 50.8. That's technically expansion but feels more like treading water than real momentum.
Manufacturing has been the canary in the coal mine for months now. These readings that hover right around the breakeven line tell you businesses aren't panicking but they're not exactly confident either. They're waiting. Watching. Conserving capital.
The gap between what the data says (slight expansion) and what it feels like (stagnation) is where the real story lives. This is what late cycle looks like before anyone wants to admit it's late cycle.
