$746M left spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept 15 and 16. $BTC is up ~7% since.
That is the entire argument against news-based forecasting, in two lines.
What those two days actually looked like ↓
- Sept 15: CLARITY Act cloture fails 49-50, 60 needed. $BTC -4.2%
- Sept 15 ETF flow: -$450.4M
- Sept 16: Fed hikes 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, first since July 2023, unanimous
- Sept 16 ETF flow: -$295.9M
- Sept 16 low: $74,913
Then it reversed ↓
- Sept 17-18 ETF flow: +$484.1M
- 24h liquidations: $547M, $469M of it shorts, 107K traders
- $BTC now: ~$81,100, +25% on the month
- $ETH : +37% on the month
Backdrop: the US 10Y just tagged 5%, highest since July 2007. Rates at a 19 year high, the industry's main bill dead, and crypto up 25%.
The analogs said the opposite. March 2022, Fed's first hike, $BTC sitting 40% under its ATH, rallied 18% over 12 days and then fell 50%. That is the exact chart everyone posted this week.
Jan 2024 was the mirror image. Most bullish headline crypto has ever had, spot ETFs approved, and $BTC lost 16.6% over the next 12 days.
Imo the analogs are worse than useless now, because they are public. If you and I can both pull up the 2022 overlay, so can the funding rate. It gets positioned into before it resolves.
The single biggest day of this month proves it. Aug 20, $BTC +8%, $2.74B of shorts liquidated, a record. Not new demand. Forced buying.
What still works: measuring the gap between what is priced and what prints.
Polymarket had CLARITY at 12% in early September, ~30% the day before it died. The outcome was already known. That 4.2% drop was positioning unwinding, not information.
News plus history gives you a volatility map, not a price target. Different products.
Change my mind.
That is the entire argument against news-based forecasting, in two lines.
What those two days actually looked like ↓
- Sept 15: CLARITY Act cloture fails 49-50, 60 needed. $BTC -4.2%
- Sept 15 ETF flow: -$450.4M
- Sept 16: Fed hikes 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, first since July 2023, unanimous
- Sept 16 ETF flow: -$295.9M
- Sept 16 low: $74,913
Then it reversed ↓
- Sept 17-18 ETF flow: +$484.1M
- 24h liquidations: $547M, $469M of it shorts, 107K traders
- $BTC now: ~$81,100, +25% on the month
- $ETH : +37% on the month
Backdrop: the US 10Y just tagged 5%, highest since July 2007. Rates at a 19 year high, the industry's main bill dead, and crypto up 25%.
The analogs said the opposite. March 2022, Fed's first hike, $BTC sitting 40% under its ATH, rallied 18% over 12 days and then fell 50%. That is the exact chart everyone posted this week.
Jan 2024 was the mirror image. Most bullish headline crypto has ever had, spot ETFs approved, and $BTC lost 16.6% over the next 12 days.
Imo the analogs are worse than useless now, because they are public. If you and I can both pull up the 2022 overlay, so can the funding rate. It gets positioned into before it resolves.
The single biggest day of this month proves it. Aug 20, $BTC +8%, $2.74B of shorts liquidated, a record. Not new demand. Forced buying.
What still works: measuring the gap between what is priced and what prints.
Polymarket had CLARITY at 12% in early September, ~30% the day before it died. The outcome was already known. That 4.2% drop was positioning unwinding, not information.
News plus history gives you a volatility map, not a price target. Different products.
Change my mind.