Twice in five days, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% — and each time, gold surged sharply higher instead of pulling back. Then yields retreated from that threshold.
Counter-intuitive price action. Gold typically weakens when real yields rise, but here it's rallying *into* the 5% test. Market's signaling something: either inflation expectations are re-accelerating, or there's underlying concern about Treasury supply/demand dynamics at these levels.
Watching this closely. If 5% becomes a ceiling for $TNX because gold bids every time we approach it, that's a meaningful shift in how risk assets and rates interact. Could be early signs of fiscal dominance fears or a repricing of long-term inflation risk.
Chart worth monitoring. 🤔
Counter-intuitive price action. Gold typically weakens when real yields rise, but here it's rallying *into* the 5% test. Market's signaling something: either inflation expectations are re-accelerating, or there's underlying concern about Treasury supply/demand dynamics at these levels.
Watching this closely. If 5% becomes a ceiling for $TNX because gold bids every time we approach it, that's a meaningful shift in how risk assets and rates interact. Could be early signs of fiscal dominance fears or a repricing of long-term inflation risk.
Chart worth monitoring. 🤔
