$XAU bounced off a 6-week low and people are already calling it a safe-haven bid.
Facts first. Fed hiked 25bp yesterday to 3.75-4.00, first lift in three years, 12-0. Sixteen of eighteen dots still want another hike this year. Spot flushed to about 4235 on that print, then ripped back through 4300 as DXY slipped off a 7-week high and oil eased. On Binance the perp did about $4.1B of volume against ~$420M of OI, funding sitting at 0. That is turnover, not a fresh long build.
My read: this is shorts covering a hike that was already priced, not gold flipping bullish. The 20-day is still overhead near 4415. A bounce that cannot hold above 4380 is just noise.
If 4235 goes, the squeeze is done. Check where last price is sitting versus that 20-day right now.
NFA.
Facts first. Fed hiked 25bp yesterday to 3.75-4.00, first lift in three years, 12-0. Sixteen of eighteen dots still want another hike this year. Spot flushed to about 4235 on that print, then ripped back through 4300 as DXY slipped off a 7-week high and oil eased. On Binance the perp did about $4.1B of volume against ~$420M of OI, funding sitting at 0. That is turnover, not a fresh long build.
My read: this is shorts covering a hike that was already priced, not gold flipping bullish. The 20-day is still overhead near 4415. A bounce that cannot hold above 4380 is just noise.
If 4235 goes, the squeeze is done. Check where last price is sitting versus that 20-day right now.
NFA.