Market News | Gold Falls to $4,296 on 89% Hike Odds While Bitcoin Gains on the Same Data
Gold prices slipped Monday as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike strengthened following hot inflation data and rallying oil prices.
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,296.68 an ounce by 1216 GMT, after posting a third straight weekly decline Friday. US gold futures dropped 1.7% to $4,335.40.
The dollar firmed to an over one-week high, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Two Non-Yielding Assets, Opposite Reactions
Bitcoin gained about 1% to $77,800 over the same window.
Both assets face the identical mechanical headwind. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holdings that generate no yield, which is the standard argument against gold in a tightening cycle and the standard argument against Bitcoin.
The correlation data explains the split. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield sits at −0.17 against gold's −0.41 — meaning gold responds more than twice as strongly to the same rate move.
That gap is why a session driven purely by rate repricing separates them. Gold trades against the rate channel directly. Bitcoin's sensitivity is weak enough that other factors dominate.
Gold has now fallen roughly 23% from its January record of $5,600.
Hike Odds Moved From 67% t
Gold prices slipped Monday as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike strengthened following hot inflation data and rallying oil prices.
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,296.68 an ounce by 1216 GMT, after posting a third straight weekly decline Friday. US gold futures dropped 1.7% to $4,335.40.
The dollar firmed to an over one-week high, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Two Non-Yielding Assets, Opposite Reactions
Bitcoin gained about 1% to $77,800 over the same window.
Both assets face the identical mechanical headwind. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holdings that generate no yield, which is the standard argument against gold in a tightening cycle and the standard argument against Bitcoin.
The correlation data explains the split. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield sits at −0.17 against gold's −0.41 — meaning gold responds more than twice as strongly to the same rate move.
That gap is why a session driven purely by rate repricing separates them. Gold trades against the rate channel directly. Bitcoin's sensitivity is weak enough that other factors dominate.
Gold has now fallen roughly 23% from its January record of $5,600.
Hike Odds Moved From 67% t
