The Fed can make money more expensive. It can’t make oil shipments safer.
Disruption around Middle Eastern shipping routes and energy facilities can keep fuel expensive. That squeezes household budgets and raises costs for businesses. Some oil producers may benefit, while airlines face bigger fuel bills.
August’s data adds to the problem: 162,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.1%, and CPI up 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually. Core CPI rose 0.3% for the month. Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%.
I still expect a 0.25 percentage-point Fed hike in September. Employment is holding up, and monthly inflation has picked up again. The decision hasn’t been announced.
For gold, I’m watching how those pressures play out. A stronger dollar could hurt, but worries about the conflict could also bring in buyers looking for protection.
My XAUT/USDT position remains open. I’m cautiously bullish for the next week, though continued selling and a stronger dollar would make me rethink the rebound.
What happens to oil next matters. Safer shipping and cheaper crude could ease inflation pressure. More disruption could leave the Fed considering further hikes after September.
#CPIWatch
Disruption around Middle Eastern shipping routes and energy facilities can keep fuel expensive. That squeezes household budgets and raises costs for businesses. Some oil producers may benefit, while airlines face bigger fuel bills.
August’s data adds to the problem: 162,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.1%, and CPI up 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually. Core CPI rose 0.3% for the month. Gasoline prices jumped 3.9%.
I still expect a 0.25 percentage-point Fed hike in September. Employment is holding up, and monthly inflation has picked up again. The decision hasn’t been announced.
For gold, I’m watching how those pressures play out. A stronger dollar could hurt, but worries about the conflict could also bring in buyers looking for protection.
My XAUT/USDT position remains open. I’m cautiously bullish for the next week, though continued selling and a stronger dollar would make me rethink the rebound.
What happens to oil next matters. Safer shipping and cheaper crude could ease inflation pressure. More disruption could leave the Fed considering further hikes after September.
#CPIWatch
