quick fundamental breakdown because this matters more than any chart right now
august's rally from 63k to 81k wasn't organic
it was triggered by the treasury's august 19 bond buyback announcement roughly 80% of that month's etf inflows landed in the two weeks right after that single news item
since then the backdrop flipped
oil back above 95 a barrel after renewed us iran strikes near the strait of hormuz
pce inflation running at 3.7% annually 4.1% over six months both well above the fed's 2% target
fed hike odds for the september 16 meeting jumped from 37% to 70% in about a week
barclays now expects two hikes before year end bnp paribas is calling for three starting december reversing every cut made in 2025
etf flows are already reacting nine straight days of inflows just turned into a 236 million dollar single day outflow
my honest read
the buyback bought a real rally not a fixed inflation problem
hike on the 16th that's genuine pressure higher rates compete directly with holding a non yielding asset
hold despite the pressure that's actually more bullish than people think
either way september 16 matters more than any level on any chart right now
$BTC
#ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #BTCTops$80K #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast
august's rally from 63k to 81k wasn't organic
it was triggered by the treasury's august 19 bond buyback announcement roughly 80% of that month's etf inflows landed in the two weeks right after that single news item
since then the backdrop flipped
oil back above 95 a barrel after renewed us iran strikes near the strait of hormuz
pce inflation running at 3.7% annually 4.1% over six months both well above the fed's 2% target
fed hike odds for the september 16 meeting jumped from 37% to 70% in about a week
barclays now expects two hikes before year end bnp paribas is calling for three starting december reversing every cut made in 2025
etf flows are already reacting nine straight days of inflows just turned into a 236 million dollar single day outflow
my honest read
the buyback bought a real rally not a fixed inflation problem
hike on the 16th that's genuine pressure higher rates compete directly with holding a non yielding asset
hold despite the pressure that's actually more bullish than people think
either way september 16 matters more than any level on any chart right now
$BTC
#ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #BTCTops$80K #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast
