Shoutout to @PermabullNino for this angle — been chewing on it for a while.
Look at Thermo-price (the all-time-average production cost for mined coins, that lowest red line). Each cycle, the bear market bottom lands higher relative to it. That's your monetary premium expanding.
2011? Bottomed right on production cost — 1x multiple. 2015 bear? 2x above cost. 2018 and 2022? Around 6x-7x. This cycle's low? 12x. Now we're sitting at 16x.
Another thing: the area under that oscillator curve keeps growing. Basically, $BTC is holding a bigger and bigger premium over its production cost for longer stretches. The monetary premium isn't just spiking and crashing — it's *sticking*.
Tops have historically pushed toward a 32x multiple (which today would be around $313k). But here's the fun part: if these rising floors keep climbing and eventually meet the historical top multiple... then what? The whole structure changes. No more violent resets to cost basis. Just a sustained, elevated premium.
That's when things get properly strange. We're not there yet, but the trend is undeniable. The floor keeps rising. The premium keeps compounding. And the gap between 'cheap' and 'expensive' keeps shrinking.
Still early to call it, but worth watching. This isn't speculation — it's just math and time doing their thing.
Look at Thermo-price (the all-time-average production cost for mined coins, that lowest red line). Each cycle, the bear market bottom lands higher relative to it. That's your monetary premium expanding.
2011? Bottomed right on production cost — 1x multiple. 2015 bear? 2x above cost. 2018 and 2022? Around 6x-7x. This cycle's low? 12x. Now we're sitting at 16x.
Another thing: the area under that oscillator curve keeps growing. Basically, $BTC is holding a bigger and bigger premium over its production cost for longer stretches. The monetary premium isn't just spiking and crashing — it's *sticking*.
Tops have historically pushed toward a 32x multiple (which today would be around $313k). But here's the fun part: if these rising floors keep climbing and eventually meet the historical top multiple... then what? The whole structure changes. No more violent resets to cost basis. Just a sustained, elevated premium.
That's when things get properly strange. We're not there yet, but the trend is undeniable. The floor keeps rising. The premium keeps compounding. And the gap between 'cheap' and 'expensive' keeps shrinking.
Still early to call it, but worth watching. This isn't speculation — it's just math and time doing their thing.
