Two strategies can produce the same annual return and still deserve completely different amounts of capital.
Why?
Because return alone does not tell you how reliable the edge is.
Imagine Strategy A has 2,000 historical observations across multiple market regimes.
Strategy B has 40 trades, with most of its profit coming from one unusually strong month.
Both show +18%.
But the confidence you should place in those numbers is not equal.
This is estimation risk: the possibility that what looks like an edge is partly the result of a small or favorable sample.
Known costs are easier to manage. For example, an eligible new user can use BTC2026 to reduce qualifying Binance Spot trading fees by 20%.
Uncertainty around the edge itself is harder.
The less evidence you have, the less aggressively you should trust the estimate.
Capital should scale with confidence in the process—not excitement about the result.
A strong number deserves attention.
A strong number backed by strong evidence deserves capital.
Why?
Because return alone does not tell you how reliable the edge is.
Imagine Strategy A has 2,000 historical observations across multiple market regimes.
Strategy B has 40 trades, with most of its profit coming from one unusually strong month.
Both show +18%.
But the confidence you should place in those numbers is not equal.
This is estimation risk: the possibility that what looks like an edge is partly the result of a small or favorable sample.
Known costs are easier to manage. For example, an eligible new user can use BTC2026 to reduce qualifying Binance Spot trading fees by 20%.
Uncertainty around the edge itself is harder.
The less evidence you have, the less aggressively you should trust the estimate.
Capital should scale with confidence in the process—not excitement about the result.
A strong number deserves attention.
A strong number backed by strong evidence deserves capital.