Bitcoin’s chart has improved enough that technicians are no longer treating the rebound as a dead-cat bounce, but the next test is still $83,000–$84,000. Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies says Bitcoin is no longer oversold and not yet overbought.

In her reading, a basing phase began in June, July supplied the retest, and the market now looks like a base breakout after Bitcoin cleared its 200-day moving average, the same hurdle that capped the tape in May. Immediate follow-through is what she wants if the move is going to stick. A clean push through $83,000–$84,000 would confirm a more durable reversal. Until then, the structure is better, not finished.

The tape matches that description more closely than it did in midsummer. As of August 31, Bitcoin was trading around $78,000–$78,700 after briefly printing above $81,000.

The August high was near $81,200–$81,350 and the low near $62,200. From about $64,000 in mid-August, that is a rebound of more than 25 percent. The longer view is less flattering: Bitcoin is still down roughly 27–28 percent from about $108,000 a year earlier and well below the 52-week high above $126,000. The market has repaired a washed-out base; it has not recaptured the prior peak.

Institutional flows have given the rebound more weight. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold about 1.26 million BTC, worth nearly $99 billion, or roughly 6 percent of supply. August net inflows ran near $3.3 billion, the strongest month since October 2025, even after a late outflow of about $202 million ended a nine-day inflow streak. Seven-day net inflows were still around $1.8 billion.

U.S. equities tell a parallel story. The S&P 500 ended August near 7,677–7,712, up about 2.4 percent. The Nasdaq was near 26,400, up about 3.5 percent. The Dow was near 53,200–53,560, up about 1.4 percent. Those were the first up months since May for the S&P and Nasdaq, and both the S&P and Dow tagged records during the month.

Monday, August 31, was weaker after U.S. strikes on Iranian targets lifted oil and raised September rate-hike odds. Tesla cushioned the Nasdaq; several megacaps, including Alphabet, lagged. Bitcoin has been trading in that same risk channel.

The late-August lift was not only a chart event. Reports tied the surge to Treasury plans to expand repo liquidity support, a softer dollar, and a simultaneous bid in gold. The dollar index was still around 99.4 at month-end. Gold was near $4,430–$4,460 after trading as high as the mid-$4,600s and remaining up roughly 27–29 percent year over year.

Stockton remains constructive on gold but treats its latest advance as a counter-trend relief rally. Bitcoin spent longer in a deeper oversold condition, which she argues could make its uptrend more durable if the breakout holds.

Policy is still the constraint. The federal funds rate remains 3.50–3.75 percent. Chair Kevin Warsh has been explicit that the inflation target is 2 percent. Midyear Fed projections put 2026 PCE inflation around 3.6 percent and core PCE around 3.3 percent.

The 10-year yield was near 4.67–4.76 percent. Markets have been pricing a meaningful chance of a 25 basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting after July’s hold, Iran-related energy shocks, and doubts about inflation credibility. A hike would not automatically kill the breakout, but it would raise the cost of capital. The Clarity Act’s delay into September adds another policy overhang.

Bitcoin has earned the right to be treated as a base-breakout candidate after reclaiming the 200-day average and attracting billions in August ETF demand. U.S. stocks can finish a month higher and still leave risk assets exposed if the Fed decides credibility requires another hike. Near-term supply sits just above $81,000. Confirmation still lives at $83,000–$84,000. The technicals have improved. The macro has not gotten out of the way.