The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release July personal consumption expenditures inflation data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. According to ChainCatcher, economists expect headline PCE to rise 0.1% month over month, with the annual rate easing to 3.6% from 3.7% in June; core PCE is seen rising 0.2% month over month and holding at 3.3% year over year, marking the 65th straight month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Rising prices across the AI supply chain, higher portfolio management fees tied to elevated stock valuations, and increased energy costs from Middle East tensions could all add to core inflation. Goldman Sachs estimated that valuation effects alone may contribute about 0.11 percentage point to July core PCE month-over-month growth.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis also plans a full overhaul of its PCE methodology at the end of September, which could change how prices are calculated for categories including computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may lead to retroactive revisions of historical data.

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September decision have become more divided. CME FedWatch shows a 59.9% probability that rates will be left unchanged and a 40.1% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Investors are also awaiting this week's Jackson Hole symposium for the latest signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and future rate policy.