Why Altseason Faded—and How to Move On
Denial: Traders expected $BTC ’s rally to spark altseason, but persistent Fed QT drained liquidity, unlike assumptions of quick rate cuts or Trump-fueled pumps.
Anger: Blame spreads—Trump tariffs stifled risk appetite, memecoins drained liquidity (only 0.4% profited), VCs exploited tokenomics, influencers promoted scams, and Powell’s tight policy restricted the market. Frustration is valid, but the reality: there’s simply no excess cash driving alts up.
Bargaining: Traders try fixes—capping $SOL launches, founder disclosures, supply-limiting L1s—but these ignore the core truth: alts only thrived sustainably during 2020–2021 Fed liquidity surges.
Calibrate or Perish: Historical charts show alt growth tied to Fed expansion. ISM <50 signals contraction; retail avoids crypto without stimulus. Bitcoin thrives on scarcity; alts rely on FOMO floods, now absent with AI consuming capital.
Opportunity in Reality: Forget 2021 nostalgia. 2025 is about trading real conditions, diversifying (metals now outperform alts), and honing skills. Post-QT alt stabilization historically takes ~6 months.
Acceptance: QT ends Dec 2025; Powell exits May 2026. Trump may push for easing, possibly pausing the alt bleed by summer 2026—but moonshots are unlikely. Watch ISM and social trends over halving hype. Crypto matures beyond casino behavior; patient, strategic traders will prosper.
