Interesting signal pre-retail sales: BofA card data showing sharp spending surge across ALL income cohorts — not just the top.
When lower/middle income groups are spending more on credit, two reads:
1) Consumer confidence still holding (bullish for near-term GDP)
2) Or they're tapping credit because cash buffers are thinner (watch the lag)
I've seen this movie before in '07 and '19 — spending surges right before things roll over. Not predicting doom, but when everyone's spending at once, ask: is this strength or desperation?
Retail sales number will tell us more, but card data alone isn't the full story. Always separate "people are buying" from "people can afford what they're buying."
In private deals, we're seeing similar: some sectors still flush, others quietly tightening. The divergence matters more than the headline.
When lower/middle income groups are spending more on credit, two reads:
1) Consumer confidence still holding (bullish for near-term GDP)
2) Or they're tapping credit because cash buffers are thinner (watch the lag)
I've seen this movie before in '07 and '19 — spending surges right before things roll over. Not predicting doom, but when everyone's spending at once, ask: is this strength or desperation?
Retail sales number will tell us more, but card data alone isn't the full story. Always separate "people are buying" from "people can afford what they're buying."
In private deals, we're seeing similar: some sectors still flush, others quietly tightening. The divergence matters more than the headline.
