warshraiserate

🎙️ jackson hole — warsh's first keynote, hawkish tone
The most important event of the week — and the market didn't love it. Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday August 28 with the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." But the message on inflation was clear and hawkish 👇
Warsh said the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7%, while the six-month change has reached 4.1% — describing the 2% inflation target as a "firm, fixed target." He noted that 54% of the 199 goods and services in the PCE basket recorded price increases above 3% during the past 12 months — still far above the pre-pandemic average of 32%. 😬
Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,200 after trading above $80,000 earlier in the day. Polymarket traders raised the probability of a 2026 rate hike to 68% after the speech. The market was hoping for a dovish pivot — instead it got a clear inflation-fighter. 👁️
🎙️ Warsh: PCE at 3.7% — "firm, fixed" 2% target, no compromise
🌡️ 6-month PCE: 4.1% — trending in wrong direction
📉 $BTC : fell from $80K+ to $79,200 after the speech
🚨 Rate hike probability September: jumped to 68% on Polymarket
⚠️ No rate cut signal — price stability is the Fed's "predominant focus"

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