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On Nov 18th 2025 I suggested that Btc was headed for a bottom at $84K (+/-2K).

I expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below $81K. On Nov 21st that low $80s target was hit. Only later to be violated to the downside.

On Nov 30th I suggested that $BTC had bottomed at $80K & would bounce up to $98-99K and get rejected. On Jan 14th 2026 my target of $98K was hit with strange accuracy...and rejected as anticipated.

Once BTC was rejected at $98K, I suggested the recent lows at $80K would be swiped. I once again expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below this local low.
Once the $80K low was swiped (T1), I suggested (on Jan 31st) that the next bearish target would be hit at $60K (+/-2K).

On Feb 6th, my $60K target was hit, and the anticipated significant bounce to follow (20%)

On Feb 6th, I outlined the typical bottoming structures and targets based on my studies of historical price action and statistical analysis. This lead me to expect a bounce from $60K to $71K (+/-1K)...and then a minimum retrace to $62-$65K

On Feb 6th my bullish target at $71K was hit and I suggested that it had met resistance and would be rejected down to my next bearish target ($62K-$65K).

That target of $65K was hit yesterday, as seen in today's chart.

Those that follow me know that I was warning of this significant drop since I mentioned the "three red week down rule" since Sept 2025. I said not only would btc soon crash, but also top alts would follow (ie xrp). This chart called the top for $XRP :

This chart called the top for BTC:

TA works! It works on all assests, in all time frames, across all markets. The question is how? How can someone like me be so "strangely accurate"? After all I don't have a crystal ball. Please know I'm not boasting, I've just been doing this a long time and I want to show you how predicatable it can be. Hopefully this will encourage you to learn TA. Also, I post here to keep track of my calls and to share my trading ideas (I want us all to succeed). Hopefully this offers some insights as to how effective technical analysis can be. I encourage you all to become students of this trade. Education is the only way we can gain any competitve edge in these fast moving markets.

Congratulations to everyone that has taken these trades and are in significant profit.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #Xrp🔥🔥

Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
$BTC $66,988 may recover from its ongoing slump and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, according to a recent Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw $BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting $BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop

Bitcoin bulls enjoyed a relief rally to $69,000 on the back of soft US CPI inflation data amid hopes of $BTC price action making a "higher low."
Bitcoin $69,695 gained at Friday’s Wall Street open as a fresh US inflation surprise boosted the mood.
Key points:
Bitcoin price action heads toward key resistance after US CPI inflation data cools beyond expectations.Crypto becomes a standout on the day as macro assets see a cool reaction to slowing inflation.Traders stay wary on overall BTC price strength.
Bitcoin spikes on soft January CPI data
Data from TradingView showed up to 4% daily BTC price gains at the time of writing, with BTC/USD reaching $69,682 on Binance.

The renewed upside came after the January print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of expectations.
As confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), core CPI matched estimates of 2.5%, while the broader reading was 2.4% — 0.1% lower than anticipated.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that CPI inflation was now at multiyear lows.
“Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021,” it wrote in a post on X. 
“Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise.”

Kobeissi referred to the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next meeting in March. Market expectations of such an outcome were previously at rock bottom, not helped by strong labor-market performance.
After the CPI release, odds of a minimal 0.25% cut remained at less than 10%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Continuing, I argue that when viewed through the lens of Truflation, an alternative measure of inflation, the decline in the CPI "is actually not surprising."

Elsewhere on macro, gold attempted to reclaim the $5,000 per ounce mark, while the US dollar index (DXY) sought a recovery after an initial CPI drop to 96.8.
US stocks, on the other hand, failed to copy Bitcoin’s enthusiasm, trading modestly down on the day at the time of writing.
Analyst eyes current range for BTC price higher low
Considering the outlook for $BTC price action, market participants had little reason to alter their cautious positions.
“$BTC Still consolidating in this falling wedge,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X update. 
“Attempted a break out yesterday but got slammed back down at the $68K level. That's the area to watch if this wants to see another leg up at some point.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the significance of the $68,000-$69,000 zone, which plays host to both the old 2021 all-time high and Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“Whether you like it or not: Bitcoin remains to be in an area where I think that we'll see a higher low come in,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted in his own forecast. 
“It's fragile, for sure, but it doesn't mean that we're not going to be seeing some momentum coming in from the markets.”

#BTC #WhaleDeRiskETH #TrendingTopic #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop

On chain data shows nearly 49,000 BTC moved from miner wallets in two days, but public disclosures suggest the transfers do not reflect broad capitulation.
Bitcoin miner outflows jumped to 28,605 BTC, worth about $1.8 billion, on Feb. 5, one of the largest single-day transfers since November 2024, as prices swung sharply during a volatile trading session.
Another 20,169 Bitcoin 
$BTC $68,876, worth about $1.4 billion, left miner-linked wallets on Feb. 6, according to data from CryptoQuant. The last comparable spike occurred on Nov. 12, 2024, when outflows reached 30,187 BTC.
The spike coincided with sharp price swings, with BTC trading at about $62,809 on Feb. 5 before rebounding to $70,544 a day later. Large miner wallet transfers during volatile sessions often draw scrutiny because they can signal potential selling pressure. 
Eight miners disclosed January figures so far: CleanSpark, Bitdeer, Hive Digital Technologies, BitFuFu, Canaan, LM Funding America, Cango and DMG Blockchain Solutions. They reported a combined production of roughly 2,377 BTC for the month. That total is far below the 28,605 BTC transferred in a single day on Feb. 5.
Outflows likely reflect broader ecosystem flows
The scale of the Feb. 5 and Feb. 6 outflows exceeds the January production of the publicly reporting firms reviewed by Cointelegraph. 
Even combining disclosed January sales from CleanSpark, Cango and DMG, confirmed selling amounts remain a fraction of the 28,605 BTC transferred in a single day. 
However, miner outflows do not automatically equate to capitulation or immediate spot-market selling.
Miner outflow includes transfers to exchanges as well as internal wallet movements and transfers to other entities, meaning the metric does not by itself confirm that coins were sold on the open market.
Given the scale of the transfers relative to disclosed public miner sales, the movements may reflect activity beyond large, listed firms.

Public miner disclosures show mixed treasury moves
CleanSpark reported mining 573 BTC and selling 158.63 BTC during the month, ending January with 13,513 BTC on its balance sheet. 
Cango mined 496.35 BTC and disclosed selling 550.03 BTC, stating it would continue to sell newly mined Bitcoin to support the expansion of its artificial intelligence and inference platform.
On Feb. 9, the company sold an additional 4,451 BTC for about $305 million to partially repay a Bitcoin-collateralized loan and fund its AI pivot.
Other firms took a different approach. Canaan mined 83 BTC and increased its reserves to 1,778 BTC and 3,951 ETH. LM Funding mined 7.8 BTC and reported no sales, lifting its treasury to 364.1 $BTC . 
Meanwhile, Hive used structured pledge mechanics tied to 480 BTC to preserve liquidity while maintaining operations.
While some miners report monthly production results consistently, others only report intermittently or have shifted to quarterly disclosures. 

Winter storms affect US miner hashrates
Network hashrate also fluctuated sharply in late January as severe winter storms hit parts of the United States. On Jan. 27, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell to 663 exahashes per second over two days, marking a more than 40% drop.

The temporary decline came as miners curtailed operations to stabilize regional power grids during extreme cold and surging energy demand. US-based firms reported reduced uptime, including Marathon Digital Holdings and Iren, which saw sharp short-term drops in daily production.
Data showed that hashrate recovered in early February after the drop during the last week of January. 
#BTC #bitcoin #miningpool #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin’s rejection at $70,000 and the large liquidity void below leave $60,000 vulnerable, a move analysts see as likely in the coming days.
$BTC $66,989 price fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping back below key intraday trend lines and raising concerns that last week’s drop to $60,000 may not have been the final bottom. Now, analysts say the possibility of another drop to the yearly low ($59,800) is increasing due to a growing liquidity gap between $66,000 and $60,000. 
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs after repeated rejections near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone.The relative strength index (RSI) is trending toward oversold levels as the price trades below key moving averages.The liquidation heatmap indicated an absence of liquidity up to $60,500, keeping the risk of a downside price move open.
Failure to hold $70,000 weakens Bitcoin’s short-term prospects
Bitcoin’s one-hour chart shows multiple failed attempts to hold above $70,000. Each rejection has led to lower price highs and steady selling pressure.
BTC’s price briefly pushed into intraday highs of $69,800 before reversing sharply during the New York session on Wednesday, forming a classic swing failure pattern. The move trapped breakout longs and accelerated downside momentum.

$BTC also traded below both the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages, confirming short-term bearish control. The RSI remained below 50, indicating limited buying pressure.
A 15-minute order block sits near the $60,800–$61,000 region, an area where strong buying pressure previously stepped in after BTC printed a yearly bottom at $59,800. This region remains a liquidity target if $64,000 fails to hold.
Heatmap data shows $60,000 is a liquidity magnet
Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmaps reveal stacked orders above $72,000, but it also highlights a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500. This “liquidity void” may act as a magnet, as price tends to move quickly through low-liquidity areas to tap concentrated stop clusters below.

Despite more visible liquidity being higher, the downside remains open as a final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million is still positioned near $60,500.
Bitcoin trader Husky said Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) drawn from last week’s lows at $59,800, a level that is acting as a short-term fair value. 
With the overall market structure starting to weaken, a lack of a swift recovery above $68,000 increases the risk of further downside toward lower support levels near $65,000. For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range, according to the trader.

Likewise, market analyst EliZ noted that $BTC is consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break below this level may send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support zone, increasing the odds of a revisit to $60,000.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic