tradersentiment

📊 $TSLA — How Traders Were Positioned (Pre & Post-Earnings Study)

Looking at options market activity and short-seller positioning before/after earnings shows just how divided traders were:
📌 Short Interest:
• Right before earnings, short interest climbed to 79 million shares — meaning a large number of traders were already betting on margin pressure
📌 Options Positioning (pre-earnings):
• Options market was pricing in a move of up to ~7% (higher than the 4.4% average move over the prior 4 quarters)
• Net short delta exposure was ~$550 million — a mild bearish tilt overall
• For the September expiry, the put/call volume ratio was 3.12 (puts outnumbered calls 3-to-1) — a defensive setup
• One notable trade: a September 400/300 put spread, ~6,000 contracts
📌 But not all signals were bearish:
• For the July 24 expiry, the put/call ratio was just 0.54 — a bullish skew in the short term
• Some traders, encouraged by the record delivery numbers (480K+), took bull call spread-style positions
• Implied volatility was 93%(+ —) traders were paying up for a big move in either direction
🎯 Takeaways:
• The market knew a big move was coming (IV 93%+), but there was no consensus on direction
• Many professional/institutional traders were hedged or leaning bearish (elevated short interest + defensive put positioning)
• A chunk of retail traders bet both ways (far OTM puts + far OTM calls) — a clear sign of uncertainty
• Traders who went bullish purely off the delivery beat got caught off guard by the margin/cash flow miss — a reminder that trading off top-line numbers alone is risky
⚠️ This is a summary of historical positioning data, not a trade signal. Options positioning is not a guarantee of future price action. DYOR.
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