Peter Schiff just said "Endgame" and warned a Fed rate hike that sends gold higher anyway would signal investors finally understand how serious this is. The man who called Bitcoin worthless for 15 years might be right about this one.
Put aside the Bitcoin takes for a moment.
On inflation and monetary policy, Schiff has been consistently accurate about the structural problem even when he has been wrong about the timeline and the vehicles.
His argument today is specific and worth taking seriously.
Any real attempt to rein in inflation will crush markets and the economy.
That is not a fringe position. That is basic arithmetic.
The US stock market cap to GDP ratio just hit 238%. The highest in 135 years of data. Housing affordability just hit its worst reading since 1890. Americans are holding record cash at the 100th percentile of historical data. Corporate debt was issued at cheap rates for a decade. Every leveraged position in the system priced in low rates staying manageable.
Now Iran attacked a US base in Jordan. Oil spiked 5%. WTI is already up 21% in July. ISM Services Prices are at a 4 year high. CPI is heading toward 5%.
The Fed faces a genuine impossible choice. Fight inflation and break markets. Or let inflation run and break the currency.
Schiff's gold signal thesis is the most interesting part. If the Fed hikes and gold goes up instead of down, the market is saying it does not believe the Fed can actually control inflation anymore. That is a loss of central bank credibility signal. The most dangerous thing that can happen in modern monetary systems.
The FOMC decision lands today.
36% odds of a hike were priced yesterday.
Peter Schiff just said Endgame.
The next few hours will tell us how much of that is hyperbole.
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