commoditycycle

瑞银最新报告：商品超级周期已开始！电气化、AI基建狂潮、电力需求暴增加上供应瓶颈，完美风暴正在形成。这波商品上涨不仅仅是暂时的，而是将持续数年的大周期。

通胀预期升温，比特币作为数字黄金将直接受益。AI基础设施需求暴涨，利好AI相关加密资产。在美联储可能转向宽松的背景下，商品+加密双市场有望迎来同步上涨。

记住Jeff Currie的话："做多并系好安全带"！商品牛市的开始往往是加密牛市的先导信号。

#CommodityCycle #Inflation #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH

This Is NOT A 1970s-Style Commodity Supercycle

The current inflation scare has two parts:

1. Strait of Hormuz risk

This is a supply shock. If Hormuz opens and shipping normalizes, the panic premium in crude, LNG, freight and insurance can cool quickly.

Hormuz handles nearly 20% of global oil flows, so any disruption creates fear. But fear premium is not the same as a structural supercycle.

2. AI infrastructure demand

This is the structural part.

AI data centres need:
power,
copper,
transformers,
cables,
cooling,
gas backup,
grid expansion.

That demand will not disappear even if oil cools.

So this is not like the 1970s, where oil shock + wage-price spiral + weak central banks created a broad inflation regime.

Today looks more like:

Temporary energy shock + structural power infrastructure boom.

Crude may be tactical.

Copper, grid, transformers, cables and power equipment may be structural.

The real bull market may not be in “all commodities”.
It may be in companies enabling electricity, grids and AI infrastructure.

#CommodityCycle
#AIInfrastructure
#GlobalMacro
$AIA $TA $BSB