#CommoditiesCycle The commodity cycle is here and no one is positioned for it.
- The last commodity cycle peaked at 12 percent commodity allocation
- Currently we are sitting at ~3 percent
- That’s ~75 percent lower
Meanwhile, conditions for the current cycle are far more favorable.
The US and the West by extension is slowly waking up to the fact that offshoring their industrial base to China in the pursuit higher margins, led to a loss of sovereignty.
The oil crisis in the 70s was not a shortage of supply, but rather the unavailability of supply... OPEC embargoed the US.
Similarly, today China is dominating the natural resource space:
- Defense
- EVs
- Mobile phones
You name it, all of it requires Chinese mining or processing.
The US can print all the money in the world, but it’s worthless if China refuses to sell.
Trump’s reintroduction of the Monroe Doctrine, reshoring, and the critical minerals stockpile was a desperate attempt to address that problem.
To regain independence, massive amounts of money have to be spent on the grid, factories, and processing facilities, all of which consume huge amounts of resources.
There is no new economy without the old one… China understands it.
Control downstream and you rule all upstream industries.
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