bond

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10) is approaching one of the most important technical zones on the daily chart. Since bond yields often influence global liquidity, their next move could have a significant impact on $BTC , $ETH , $XAU , and the S&P 500.
Technical Outlook
US10Y is currently trading inside a strong support zone between 4.10% and 4.24%, where a fake breakdown has formed.
Historically, fake breakdowns are often followed by strong moves in the opposite direction, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal.
In addition, the chart shows a Falling Wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish continuation setup. If the upper trendline is confirmed as broken, Elliott Wave analysis also supports the beginning of a new impulsive wave.
Target
🎯 Resistance Zone: 4.50%–4.64%
🛑 Invalidation Level (SL): 4.35%
Why Does US10Y Matter?
A rising 10-Year Treasury Yield usually tightens financial conditions and reduces market liquidity.
This often creates pressure on risk assets, including:
BTC and the broader crypto marketETH and major altcoinsXAUUSD (Gold)SPX (S&P 500)
If yields continue climbing, investors may rotate capital toward fixed-income assets, reducing demand for higher-risk investments.
What Could Drive the Next Move?
The upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29, along with new U.S. economic data and future comments from Warsh, could become key catalysts for Treasury yields and determine the next major trend across financial markets.
Bottom Line
As long as US10Y holds above the current support area, I expect the yield to continue moving toward the 4.50%–4.64% resistance zone. If that scenario plays out, risk assets such as Bitcoin, Gold, and U.S. equities may experience additional downside pressure.
Do you think US10Y will continue higher, or is a reversal more likely? How could that affect BTC and the broader crypto market?

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