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Revenue is only one-sixth of Tesla's, why does SpaceX demand $800 billion?
Revenue is only one-sixth of Tesla's, why does SpaceX demand $800 billion?
If there is a company with revenue only about one-sixth of Tesla's, but its valuation is set to match more than half of Tesla's, you might first ask: Is this reasonable? Now, Elon Musk's SpaceX is in this position. Recent news shows that SpaceX is selling shares to investors in the secondary market at a valuation of about $800 billion, an amount that has already exceeded half of Tesla's market value and is expected to surpass OpenAI, becoming the most valuable private company in the U.S. The problem is, SpaceX's expected revenue is only about $15.5 billion, while Tesla's expected revenue in 2025 is about $95.2 billion. This contrast of 'one level of income, one level of valuation' sharply reflects the so-called 'Musk premium.'
If there is a company with revenue only about one-sixth of Tesla's, but its valuation is set to match more than half of Tesla's, you might first ask: Is this reasonable? Now, Elon Musk's SpaceX is in this position. Recent news shows that SpaceX is selling shares to investors in the secondary market at a valuation of about $800 billion, an amount that has already exceeded half of Tesla's market value and is expected to surpass OpenAI, becoming the most valuable private company in the U.S. The problem is, SpaceX's expected revenue is only about $15.5 billion, while Tesla's expected revenue in 2025 is about $95.2 billion. This contrast of 'one level of income, one level of valuation' sharply reflects the so-called 'Musk premium.'
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后ChatGPT时代的估值重排：中国互联网和美股巨头，已经拉开“两倍速”差距
后ChatGPT时代的估值重排：中国互联网和美股巨头，已经拉开“两倍速”差距
ChatGPT在2022年底点燃了新一轮AI浪潮后，全球互联网公司的估值逻辑，实际上已经悄悄换了一套剧本。短短不到三年，纳斯达克那边的大型互联网公司，市值和盈利增长像踩了油门；港股这边的中概互联网龙头也在修复，但整体节奏明显慢半拍。表面看是估值打折，往里看是一整张利润表和成本结构的“系统性差距”。
这篇文章做的事情很简单：拿最新的三季度财报做窗口，各选一篮子典型互联网龙头，纳斯达克一边、港股“东方纳斯达克”一边，剔除英伟达、AMD、小米这种更偏上游硬件的公司，统一换算成美元口径，逐项对比市值、估值、营收、利润率和成本开支，然后看一眼：后ChatGPT时代的估值重构，究竟重构在了哪里。
一、估值层面：市值拉开大跨度，估值水平也在分化
先看体量。AI纪元刚启动的2023年初，港股互联网前十家龙头公司的总市值大约在10500亿美元附近，如今涨到了约15000亿美元，年复合增速在19%左右，属于温和修复。
纳斯达克那边，同一时期前十大互联网龙头的总市值，从约66000亿美元拉到大约169000亿美元，差不多翻了一倍多，年复合增速在60%左右。简单粗暴地说，同样在AI逻辑加持之下，美股龙头市值扩张的速度，大约是中概互联的三倍。
2023年初，港股前十和纳斯达克前十之间，总市值的比例大约是1：6.7，这个倍数当时大致还能用人民币对美元的汇率差做个类比。到了最新时点，同口径对比，这个差距已经拉到了1：11以上，说明“东方纳斯达克”和纳斯达克之间，在龙头体量上越走越开。
再看估值倍数。AI浪潮前，港股中概互联网整体已经进入成熟期，情绪偏冷，前十大企业市盈率中位数只有15倍上下。三年走下来，这个中位数抬到了18–19倍，算是从历史低位回到正常偏上的区间，但没有出现大幅重估。
纳斯达克互联网龙头的节奏完全不同。2023年初前十大市盈率中位数在26倍左右，如今已经爬到约34倍，估值抬升的幅度远高于港股。指数层面也能印证同样的故事：纳斯达克100当前TTM市盈率在34倍附近，恒生科技指数在21倍左右，差距背后，既有流动性价差，也有投资者对成长性的不同预期。
从历史分位数看，两边龙头的估值都不算离谱，十年区间大致在40%–50%一带，属于“被上修，但还没狂热”的状态。但如果把视野从龙头放到更“腰部”的公司，差异就很明显：纳斯达克100整体估值分位数大概在75%，恒生科技只有约15%。这意味着，在美国市场，投资者对那些盈利还不稳定、业务还在开荒期的中腰部互联网企业，更愿意付出高溢价；在港股，资金显然更加偏爱现金流稳定的成熟龙头，对讲故事的中腰部公司兴趣有限。
二、营收与利润：财报里的“二倍速世界”
估值差距最终会不会被弥补，得看生意本身的增长。把时间拉回到2023年第一季度，中概互联网前十大企业单季合计营收大约1130亿美元，过去三年表现最好的一季也就1440亿美元左右，增长有但并不惊艳。
纳斯达克前十大互联网公司同期单季营收大约3900亿美元，如今最佳季度已经做到5500亿美元以上。以今年三季度对比两年前同一季度，中概互联前十的营收增速在19%左右，纳斯达克互联网龙头则接近30%，增速差不再是一个小数点，而是在肉眼可见地拉开。
利润率的差异更能解释估值的“打折”。过去三年，纳斯达克互联网龙头整体毛利率从约60.7%抬到了接近64.9%，在原本就很高的基数上又提高了四个多百分点，规模优势越滚越明显。中概互联网这边，同期毛利率从大约43.5%挪到45.6%，略有改善，却谈不上质变。
净利率的变化则呈现出更清晰的“二倍速”：2023年初，两边的净利率差距其实不大，中概前十大约14.5%，纳斯达克前十大约16.9%。到了最新三季度，中概互联网整体净利率抬到了19.6%，已经不算低，但纳斯达克那边却抬到了27.4%，直接甩出一个肉眼可见的台阶。
把净利率的抬升幅度换算成百分点，中概这边三年间大约提升了5个多百分点，纳斯达克巨头则提升了超过10个百分点，同样接近“两倍”的差距。
于是，一个简单却经常被情绪掩盖的事实就浮出水面：不论在港股还是美股，最终回到同一维度，投资者给的估值溢价，很大程度上仍旧对标的是利润表的质量和成长速度。AI浪潮并没有把“讲故事”变成主菜，而是把业绩更扎实、利润更厚的那一批公司抬得更高。
三、成本结构：销售费高企，资本开支却仍在“轻装上阵”
利润表看完，再翻到费用端。这里同样能看出中美互联网巨头的路线分叉。
销售费用率是最刺眼的一项。港股互联网龙头原本营销开支就不低，外卖、本地生活等赛道竞争升级后，销售费用几乎是肉眼可见地往上冲：从2023年第一季度的约8.4%，一路抬到2025年第三季度接近15.7%。也就是说，本来应该逐步享受“成熟期红利”的龙头，反而在销售端越花越多。
纳斯达克互联网巨头的画风则完全相反。同期它们的销售费用率大致从7.4%一路降到5.6%，不但没有被竞争拖累，反而在边际上越做越“省力”，更多依赖品牌和生态惯性，而不是砸钱买流量。
管理费用率方面，两边都相对平稳，但港股互联网龙头长期高于美股同行。硅谷这边虽然因为AI人才抢夺，管理费用上有一定上升，但分摊到更大的营收盘子上，整体费率大致还稳在3%左右；港股龙头则长期在5%–6%区间打转。
研发费用率的对比稍微复杂一点。纳斯达克互联网巨头因为人才成本高，研发费用率常年维持在8%–9%，而且今年已经连续几个季度稳定在9%的高位。港股互联网巨头长期大致在6%一带，今年三季度因为加大AI投入，研发费率明显抬头，突破了7%，和美股之间的差距在缩窄，但绝对投入仍然存在明显距离。
真正拉开维度差距的，是资本开支。
如果用现金流量表中的资本性支出或投资性现金流净流出做口径，哪怕全部折算成美元，港股互联网巨头和纳斯达克互联网巨头之间，在单季度资本开支规模上根本不在同一条线上。AI浪潮以来，港股前十单季资本开支从大约22亿美元提升到约88亿美元，这个增幅并不小，但纳斯达克互联网巨头的同期资本开支则从大约360亿美元冲到接近1000亿美元——不是多了几个百分点，而是绝对额整块往上抬。
更关键的是参与广度。港股互联网里，资本开支明显放大的主要集中在靠前的三四家公司，更多是个别巨头“冲在前面”；纳斯达克互联网公司则有七八家同时明显加大资本开支，AI相关的基础设施和算力投入，在整个板块层面形成“集团军作战”。
一句话概括这一段：在成本结构里，港股互联网龙头把更多钱花在了当期费用（尤其是销售费用）上，美股互联网巨头则更愿意把钱扔进未来的“能力建设”里，利润表看上去更厚，资产端的AI基础设施也在快速堆高。
四、结语：中国互联网的“反内卷”，得动真格了
把估值、市值、营收、利润率和成本结构几块拼起来看，中概互联网龙头和纳斯达克互联网龙头之间，大概是这样一幅图景：
港股这边，估值水平大致只有美股的一半，AI纪元以来市值增速只有对方的三分之一；利润表上，无论是营收增速、毛利率抬升幅度，还是净利率的改善，都大致呈现接近“两倍”的差距；费用结构里，销售和管理端更重、更“卷”，资本开支和AI相关的长期投入则明显轻一些。
造成这种结构性分化的原因，一方面确实有外部宏观环境。美国三年多的高通胀周期，把很多本来就具备规模优势、定价权充足的成熟科技公司，推到了利润释放的甜蜜期；中国这边则更多承受需求疲弱、消费降档、监管调整的多重压力，互联网企业不得不通过更多补贴、营销去抢存量。
另一方面，更关键的是商业边界和战略选择。美国几家头部科技公司普遍在主业上已经非常清晰，AI出来之后，它们几乎同时做了一个类似的动作：用更高的研发强度和资本开支，把AI变成自家业务的“底层操作系统”，把现金流真金白银砸向未来。
中国互联网龙头这边，很多公司这几年还停留在“到处插一脚”“边界越做越大”的扩张模式里，本该进入成熟期、释放高质量利润的阶段，却被反复拉回到价格战、补贴战、拉新大战这样的旧战场上。结果就是利润表被拉扯，销售费用压在头上，真正面向未来的AI基础设施建设，投入节奏被挤压，估值自然很难同步抬升。
如果说后ChatGPT时代给互联网企业出了一个新考题，那考的就两件事：一个是有没有勇气给自己的业务划边界，停止无休止的内卷；另一个是有没有魄力把资源往未来沉淀，而不仅仅是花在今天的“份额焦虑”上。
潮水的方向已经变了。留在旧战场里，继续烧钱抢存量，短期可能还能维持一阵热闹；真正想在新周期里赢回估值和话语权，就得把算盘重新打过：少一点同质化内耗，多一点面对AI时代基础设施和长期能力的“重投入”。这一轮，讲故事的时间差不多过去了，谁肯动真格，谁就有资格在新的估值体系里占回属于自己的那一席。
ChatGPT在2022年底点燃了新一轮AI浪潮后，全球互联网公司的估值逻辑，实际上已经悄悄换了一套剧本。短短不到三年，纳斯达克那边的大型互联网公司，市值和盈利增长像踩了油门；港股这边的中概互联网龙头也在修复，但整体节奏明显慢半拍。表面看是估值打折，往里看是一整张利润表和成本结构的“系统性差距”。
这篇文章做的事情很简单：拿最新的三季度财报做窗口，各选一篮子典型互联网龙头，纳斯达克一边、港股“东方纳斯达克”一边，剔除英伟达、AMD、小米这种更偏上游硬件的公司，统一换算成美元口径，逐项对比市值、估值、营收、利润率和成本开支，然后看一眼：后ChatGPT时代的估值重构，究竟重构在了哪里。
一、估值层面：市值拉开大跨度，估值水平也在分化
先看体量。AI纪元刚启动的2023年初，港股互联网前十家龙头公司的总市值大约在10500亿美元附近，如今涨到了约15000亿美元，年复合增速在19%左右，属于温和修复。
纳斯达克那边，同一时期前十大互联网龙头的总市值，从约66000亿美元拉到大约169000亿美元，差不多翻了一倍多，年复合增速在60%左右。简单粗暴地说，同样在AI逻辑加持之下，美股龙头市值扩张的速度，大约是中概互联的三倍。
2023年初，港股前十和纳斯达克前十之间，总市值的比例大约是1：6.7，这个倍数当时大致还能用人民币对美元的汇率差做个类比。到了最新时点，同口径对比，这个差距已经拉到了1：11以上，说明“东方纳斯达克”和纳斯达克之间，在龙头体量上越走越开。
再看估值倍数。AI浪潮前，港股中概互联网整体已经进入成熟期，情绪偏冷，前十大企业市盈率中位数只有15倍上下。三年走下来，这个中位数抬到了18–19倍，算是从历史低位回到正常偏上的区间，但没有出现大幅重估。
纳斯达克互联网龙头的节奏完全不同。2023年初前十大市盈率中位数在26倍左右，如今已经爬到约34倍，估值抬升的幅度远高于港股。指数层面也能印证同样的故事：纳斯达克100当前TTM市盈率在34倍附近，恒生科技指数在21倍左右，差距背后，既有流动性价差，也有投资者对成长性的不同预期。
从历史分位数看，两边龙头的估值都不算离谱，十年区间大致在40%–50%一带，属于“被上修，但还没狂热”的状态。但如果把视野从龙头放到更“腰部”的公司，差异就很明显：纳斯达克100整体估值分位数大概在75%，恒生科技只有约15%。这意味着，在美国市场，投资者对那些盈利还不稳定、业务还在开荒期的中腰部互联网企业，更愿意付出高溢价；在港股，资金显然更加偏爱现金流稳定的成熟龙头，对讲故事的中腰部公司兴趣有限。
二、营收与利润：财报里的“二倍速世界”
估值差距最终会不会被弥补，得看生意本身的增长。把时间拉回到2023年第一季度，中概互联网前十大企业单季合计营收大约1130亿美元，过去三年表现最好的一季也就1440亿美元左右，增长有但并不惊艳。
纳斯达克前十大互联网公司同期单季营收大约3900亿美元，如今最佳季度已经做到5500亿美元以上。以今年三季度对比两年前同一季度，中概互联前十的营收增速在19%左右，纳斯达克互联网龙头则接近30%，增速差不再是一个小数点，而是在肉眼可见地拉开。
利润率的差异更能解释估值的“打折”。过去三年，纳斯达克互联网龙头整体毛利率从约60.7%抬到了接近64.9%，在原本就很高的基数上又提高了四个多百分点，规模优势越滚越明显。中概互联网这边，同期毛利率从大约43.5%挪到45.6%，略有改善，却谈不上质变。
净利率的变化则呈现出更清晰的“二倍速”：2023年初，两边的净利率差距其实不大，中概前十大约14.5%，纳斯达克前十大约16.9%。到了最新三季度，中概互联网整体净利率抬到了19.6%，已经不算低，但纳斯达克那边却抬到了27.4%，直接甩出一个肉眼可见的台阶。
把净利率的抬升幅度换算成百分点，中概这边三年间大约提升了5个多百分点，纳斯达克巨头则提升了超过10个百分点，同样接近“两倍”的差距。
于是，一个简单却经常被情绪掩盖的事实就浮出水面：不论在港股还是美股，最终回到同一维度，投资者给的估值溢价，很大程度上仍旧对标的是利润表的质量和成长速度。AI浪潮并没有把“讲故事”变成主菜，而是把业绩更扎实、利润更厚的那一批公司抬得更高。
三、成本结构：销售费高企，资本开支却仍在“轻装上阵”
利润表看完，再翻到费用端。这里同样能看出中美互联网巨头的路线分叉。
销售费用率是最刺眼的一项。港股互联网龙头原本营销开支就不低，外卖、本地生活等赛道竞争升级后，销售费用几乎是肉眼可见地往上冲：从2023年第一季度的约8.4%，一路抬到2025年第三季度接近15.7%。也就是说，本来应该逐步享受“成熟期红利”的龙头，反而在销售端越花越多。
纳斯达克互联网巨头的画风则完全相反。同期它们的销售费用率大致从7.4%一路降到5.6%，不但没有被竞争拖累，反而在边际上越做越“省力”，更多依赖品牌和生态惯性，而不是砸钱买流量。
管理费用率方面，两边都相对平稳，但港股互联网龙头长期高于美股同行。硅谷这边虽然因为AI人才抢夺，管理费用上有一定上升，但分摊到更大的营收盘子上，整体费率大致还稳在3%左右；港股龙头则长期在5%–6%区间打转。
研发费用率的对比稍微复杂一点。纳斯达克互联网巨头因为人才成本高，研发费用率常年维持在8%–9%，而且今年已经连续几个季度稳定在9%的高位。港股互联网巨头长期大致在6%一带，今年三季度因为加大AI投入，研发费率明显抬头，突破了7%，和美股之间的差距在缩窄，但绝对投入仍然存在明显距离。
真正拉开维度差距的，是资本开支。
如果用现金流量表中的资本性支出或投资性现金流净流出做口径，哪怕全部折算成美元，港股互联网巨头和纳斯达克互联网巨头之间，在单季度资本开支规模上根本不在同一条线上。AI浪潮以来，港股前十单季资本开支从大约22亿美元提升到约88亿美元，这个增幅并不小，但纳斯达克互联网巨头的同期资本开支则从大约360亿美元冲到接近1000亿美元——不是多了几个百分点，而是绝对额整块往上抬。
更关键的是参与广度。港股互联网里，资本开支明显放大的主要集中在靠前的三四家公司，更多是个别巨头“冲在前面”；纳斯达克互联网公司则有七八家同时明显加大资本开支，AI相关的基础设施和算力投入，在整个板块层面形成“集团军作战”。
一句话概括这一段：在成本结构里，港股互联网龙头把更多钱花在了当期费用（尤其是销售费用）上，美股互联网巨头则更愿意把钱扔进未来的“能力建设”里，利润表看上去更厚，资产端的AI基础设施也在快速堆高。
四、结语：中国互联网的“反内卷”，得动真格了
把估值、市值、营收、利润率和成本结构几块拼起来看，中概互联网龙头和纳斯达克互联网龙头之间，大概是这样一幅图景：
港股这边，估值水平大致只有美股的一半，AI纪元以来市值增速只有对方的三分之一；利润表上，无论是营收增速、毛利率抬升幅度，还是净利率的改善，都大致呈现接近“两倍”的差距；费用结构里，销售和管理端更重、更“卷”，资本开支和AI相关的长期投入则明显轻一些。
造成这种结构性分化的原因，一方面确实有外部宏观环境。美国三年多的高通胀周期，把很多本来就具备规模优势、定价权充足的成熟科技公司，推到了利润释放的甜蜜期；中国这边则更多承受需求疲弱、消费降档、监管调整的多重压力，互联网企业不得不通过更多补贴、营销去抢存量。
另一方面，更关键的是商业边界和战略选择。美国几家头部科技公司普遍在主业上已经非常清晰，AI出来之后，它们几乎同时做了一个类似的动作：用更高的研发强度和资本开支，把AI变成自家业务的“底层操作系统”，把现金流真金白银砸向未来。
中国互联网龙头这边，很多公司这几年还停留在“到处插一脚”“边界越做越大”的扩张模式里，本该进入成熟期、释放高质量利润的阶段，却被反复拉回到价格战、补贴战、拉新大战这样的旧战场上。结果就是利润表被拉扯，销售费用压在头上，真正面向未来的AI基础设施建设，投入节奏被挤压，估值自然很难同步抬升。
如果说后ChatGPT时代给互联网企业出了一个新考题，那考的就两件事：一个是有没有勇气给自己的业务划边界，停止无休止的内卷；另一个是有没有魄力把资源往未来沉淀，而不仅仅是花在今天的“份额焦虑”上。
潮水的方向已经变了。留在旧战场里，继续烧钱抢存量，短期可能还能维持一阵热闹；真正想在新周期里赢回估值和话语权，就得把算盘重新打过：少一点同质化内耗，多一点面对AI时代基础设施和长期能力的“重投入”。这一轮，讲故事的时间差不多过去了，谁肯动真格，谁就有资格在新的估值体系里占回属于自己的那一席。
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#Old Cow's Midnight Contemplation# Nine Investment Maps Spanning a Century: What Top Masters Teach You is Not Stock Trading Skills, but 'How to Live'
#Old Cow's Midnight Contemplation# Nine Investment Maps Spanning a Century: What Top Masters Teach You is Not Stock Trading Skills, but 'How to Live'
In the investment world, there is a particularly heart-wrenching saying: Whatever you believe in, that's what you'll do in the market. Making money or losing money often depends not on how many indicators you know or how many famous quotes you've memorized, but on whether you have a stable, formed, and resilient underlying logic that can withstand the ups and downs - that is, 'investment philosophy.' The capital market superficially involves price fluctuations and the transfer of chips, but behind it is a long-term battle between different investment beliefs. Without your own philosophical beliefs and relying solely on emotions and 'this time for sure,' you will eventually be washed out in major fluctuations.
In the investment world, there is a particularly heart-wrenching saying: Whatever you believe in, that's what you'll do in the market. Making money or losing money often depends not on how many indicators you know or how many famous quotes you've memorized, but on whether you have a stable, formed, and resilient underlying logic that can withstand the ups and downs - that is, 'investment philosophy.' The capital market superficially involves price fluctuations and the transfer of chips, but behind it is a long-term battle between different investment beliefs. Without your own philosophical beliefs and relying solely on emotions and 'this time for sure,' you will eventually be washed out in major fluctuations.
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#A股为何突然大涨#两大利好点燃大金融：谁在推着A股往上走？
#A股为何突然大涨#两大利好点燃大金融：谁在推着A股往上走？
On December 5th in the afternoon, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which were originally somewhat dull, were forcibly pulled out of an emotional high point by the large financial sector. The main players leading the trend were still the two familiar sectors: insurance and brokerage.
First, let's look at the market performance. After the afternoon opening, insurance stocks took the lead in launching an offensive, with China Pacific Insurance rising more than 6%, Ping An H shares soaring over 6%, and A-shares also increasing by over 5%. China Life, China Re, and others followed suit, and the entire insurance sector strengthened collectively. Soon after, brokerage stocks took over the charge, with Shenwan Hongyuan Hong Kong and Hongye Futures rising over 4%, and Dongfang Securities and GF Securities increasing by more than 3%. Zhongzhou Securities and Everbright Securities also saw increases of over 2%. Along with the A50 index futures rising over 1% in the afternoon, the sentiment rapidly spread to a wider range of heavyweight sectors.
On December 5th in the afternoon, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which were originally somewhat dull, were forcibly pulled out of an emotional high point by the large financial sector. The main players leading the trend were still the two familiar sectors: insurance and brokerage.
First, let's look at the market performance. After the afternoon opening, insurance stocks took the lead in launching an offensive, with China Pacific Insurance rising more than 6%, Ping An H shares soaring over 6%, and A-shares also increasing by over 5%. China Life, China Re, and others followed suit, and the entire insurance sector strengthened collectively. Soon after, brokerage stocks took over the charge, with Shenwan Hongyuan Hong Kong and Hongye Futures rising over 4%, and Dongfang Securities and GF Securities increasing by more than 3%. Zhongzhou Securities and Everbright Securities also saw increases of over 2%. Along with the A50 index futures rising over 1% in the afternoon, the sentiment rapidly spread to a wider range of heavyweight sectors.
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Recently, Musk left a rather sharp remark on X: War is inevitable, in 5 years, at most 10 years. Standing at the top of the global industrial chain and the flow of capital, what he sees is not the mortgages and car loans of ordinary families, but military orders, energy patterns, and a reshuffling of technological hegemony. When a person who commands rockets, satellites, AI, and the discourse power of social platforms regards 'great war' as a matter of time, is this a pessimistic prophecy or a way to hype a certain trend?
What we should really be concerned about may not be which year he guessed the war would start, but whether we have already become accustomed to defaulting to the direction of this world with the notion that 'conflict is inevitable'—the more advanced the technology, the more precise the weapons, yet people's hearts are easily incited. What is perhaps most unsettling is not that someone is predicting an impending great war, but that when we hear such words, our first reaction is only left with 'how to arrange assets, how to avoid risks,' and rarely do we ask again: Who is actually pushing this world in that direction?
What we should really be concerned about may not be which year he guessed the war would start, but whether we have already become accustomed to defaulting to the direction of this world with the notion that 'conflict is inevitable'—the more advanced the technology, the more precise the weapons, yet people's hearts are easily incited. What is perhaps most unsettling is not that someone is predicting an impending great war, but that when we hear such words, our first reaction is only left with 'how to arrange assets, how to avoid risks,' and rarely do we ask again: Who is actually pushing this world in that direction?
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Delayed September PCE: The Last Life-or-Death Question Before the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates
Delayed September PCE: The Last Life-or-Death Question Before the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates
After a severe turbulence in November, the US stock market has once again returned to near historical highs. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are consolidating at high levels, while the Dow has slightly retraced. Global stock indices are generally rising, with Asian and European stock index futures up by 0.2%-0.4% on Friday. The MSCI global index is only about 0.5% away from the historic closing record set in October. The US dollar index has been weakening, facing its fourth weekly decline within five weeks. From a superficial price perspective, the market seems to be prematurely celebrating the 'Federal Reserve is going to cut rates,' but those truly involved in the market understand that the underlying tone of this rebound is not easy: on one hand, there is persistent inflation that cannot be suppressed, and on the other hand, there is gradually weakening employment. Macro signals are contradictory, and the sentiment is filled with hesitation.
After a severe turbulence in November, the US stock market has once again returned to near historical highs. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are consolidating at high levels, while the Dow has slightly retraced. Global stock indices are generally rising, with Asian and European stock index futures up by 0.2%-0.4% on Friday. The MSCI global index is only about 0.5% away from the historic closing record set in October. The US dollar index has been weakening, facing its fourth weekly decline within five weeks. From a superficial price perspective, the market seems to be prematurely celebrating the 'Federal Reserve is going to cut rates,' but those truly involved in the market understand that the underlying tone of this rebound is not easy: on one hand, there is persistent inflation that cannot be suppressed, and on the other hand, there is gradually weakening employment. Macro signals are contradictory, and the sentiment is filled with hesitation.
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Robot Takes Over AI: Trump Bets on 'Steel Workers' While Hollowing Out America's Innovative Soil
Robot Takes Over AI: Trump Bets on 'Steel Workers' While Hollowing Out America's Innovative Soil
After placing artificial intelligence at the forefront of national strategy, the United States is further turning its attention to AI's 'physical form'—robots. The latest news indicates that the Trump administration is quietly shifting the focus of its technology policy from pure software AI to the 'integrated software and hardware' robotics industry, attempting to place robots at the center of America's technological strategy.
1. From AI to Robots: The White House Shifts Policy Focus Again
After taking intensive action in the AI field through executive orders and industry guidelines, the U.S. government plans to replicate the same approach for robots: first launching a national-level executive order, followed by a cross-departmental task force to implement it, with accompanying tax reductions, simplified regulations, and federal funding support, aiming to promote robot technology alongside advanced manufacturing.
After placing artificial intelligence at the forefront of national strategy, the United States is further turning its attention to AI's 'physical form'—robots. The latest news indicates that the Trump administration is quietly shifting the focus of its technology policy from pure software AI to the 'integrated software and hardware' robotics industry, attempting to place robots at the center of America's technological strategy.
1. From AI to Robots: The White House Shifts Policy Focus Again
After taking intensive action in the AI field through executive orders and industry guidelines, the U.S. government plans to replicate the same approach for robots: first launching a national-level executive order, followed by a cross-departmental task force to implement it, with accompanying tax reductions, simplified regulations, and federal funding support, aiming to promote robot technology alongside advanced manufacturing.
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Morgan Stanley whistleblower: Is the "long money era" of 50-60 trillion yuan coming?
Morgan Stanley whistleblower: Is the "long money era" of 50-60 trillion yuan coming?
On the afternoon of December 5th, China Ping An suddenly surged in volume, with both A and H shares jumping sharply, making it look like "someone is blowing the whistle inside." Following the money to find the reason, we discover that the behind-the-scenes driver is Morgan Stanley — an investment bank known as the "whistleblower" in the A-share market. In their latest research report, they not only re-included China Ping An in their key focus list but also raised the target price significantly: A shares from 70 yuan to 85 yuan, and H shares from 70 Hong Kong dollars to 89 Hong Kong dollars, continuing to position it as a "preferred target," effectively publicly announcing to global funds that they are most optimistic about Ping An in the financial + healthcare sector in China.
On the afternoon of December 5th, China Ping An suddenly surged in volume, with both A and H shares jumping sharply, making it look like "someone is blowing the whistle inside." Following the money to find the reason, we discover that the behind-the-scenes driver is Morgan Stanley — an investment bank known as the "whistleblower" in the A-share market. In their latest research report, they not only re-included China Ping An in their key focus list but also raised the target price significantly: A shares from 70 yuan to 85 yuan, and H shares from 70 Hong Kong dollars to 89 Hong Kong dollars, continuing to position it as a "preferred target," effectively publicly announcing to global funds that they are most optimistic about Ping An in the financial + healthcare sector in China.
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After 13:40, with the support of finance and institutions, coupled with the market that has already shown a weak to strong trend in the morning, the index will rise in sync. At this time, reading the evening articles from this Wednesday and Thursday again, doesn't it resonate more? Especially the title of Wednesday evening's article, "Double Happiness", although it did not materialize on Thursday, the opportunity remains due to the afternoon index being controlled as if frozen. The suspense is still there.
Remember what was said in last night's article, no matter how they control and select here, once the rebound happens, the probability will soar to the 70% mentioned in Wednesday night's article.
Remember what was said in last night's article, no matter how they control and select here, once the rebound happens, the probability will soar to the 70% mentioned in Wednesday night's article.
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Hassett signals a 25 basis point rate cut: The Trump version of the Federal Reserve is taking shape.
Hassett signals a 25 basis point rate cut: The Trump version of the Federal Reserve is taking shape.
Against the backdrop of the three major U.S. stock index futures maintaining high volatility, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stepped back into the spotlight, igniting the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week. In an interview with Fox News, he clearly stated that the Fed is currently leaning towards a rate cut, and he believes action should be taken next week, with a 25 basis point cut being most appropriate. His remarks essentially clarify the market's expectation of 'a cut first'.
Hassett's judgment does not come from nowhere. He emphasized that recently, whether it is members of the Federal Reserve Board or regional Fed presidents, their public speeches have been moving in a 'more accommodative' direction. In his view, this has already constituted a collective bias. He has long advocated for lowering U.S. interest rates to a more sustainable level, believing that low rates are beneficial for economic growth and fiscal sustainability. However, on an operational level, he is willing to accept the gradually formed consensus within the FOMC for a 25 basis point cut, using a moderate starting point to open the door for a rate cut cycle.
Against the backdrop of the three major U.S. stock index futures maintaining high volatility, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stepped back into the spotlight, igniting the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week. In an interview with Fox News, he clearly stated that the Fed is currently leaning towards a rate cut, and he believes action should be taken next week, with a 25 basis point cut being most appropriate. His remarks essentially clarify the market's expectation of 'a cut first'.
Hassett's judgment does not come from nowhere. He emphasized that recently, whether it is members of the Federal Reserve Board or regional Fed presidents, their public speeches have been moving in a 'more accommodative' direction. In his view, this has already constituted a collective bias. He has long advocated for lowering U.S. interest rates to a more sustainable level, believing that low rates are beneficial for economic growth and fiscal sustainability. However, on an operational level, he is willing to accept the gradually formed consensus within the FOMC for a 25 basis point cut, using a moderate starting point to open the door for a rate cut cycle.
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From the morning's false alarm to the gradual strengthening of market sentiment, it can basically be confirmed that the ideal expectations proposed on Wednesday evening will be fulfilled by Friday after being unfulfilled yesterday. Do you remember the probability mentioned on Wednesday evening? What does the shift from weak to strong market sentiment mean here? If it's unclear, read the evening articles from Wednesday and Thursday again. #A股#
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The early market may throw many people off guard, leading to confusion and even a breakdown. Remember what was said in last night's article: patiently wait for the weak turn in the next couple of days. If it doesn't happen, like yesterday, then hold the first line of defense. If you have the ability, quickly break through; don't let it come back. As long as it comes back, it means someone is intentionally controlling it. Since it's being controlled, then wait patiently for the weak turn. #A股#
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#Old Cow's Midnight Reflection# Treat life as a machine that can be debugged
#Old Cow's Midnight Reflection# Treat life as a machine that can be debugged
If I had to summarize Ray Dalio's philosophy of life in one sentence, it would be: The most worthwhile thing to do in this life is called 'Fail - Learn - Improve.' In his view, the greatest achievement in life is not how much money one makes, but in continuously experimenting, reflecting, and iterating, contributing a little brick to the 'evolution of humanity,' which itself is the highest reward life offers.
1. A Fund Manager Who Emerged from 'Principles'
Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, managing one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Many people only see his vast assets but are unaware that his influence has another side: he is someone who treats 'principles' as hardcore productivity.
If I had to summarize Ray Dalio's philosophy of life in one sentence, it would be: The most worthwhile thing to do in this life is called 'Fail - Learn - Improve.' In his view, the greatest achievement in life is not how much money one makes, but in continuously experimenting, reflecting, and iterating, contributing a little brick to the 'evolution of humanity,' which itself is the highest reward life offers.
1. A Fund Manager Who Emerged from 'Principles'
Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, managing one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Many people only see his vast assets but are unaware that his influence has another side: he is someone who treats 'principles' as hardcore productivity.
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62% of companies bet on humanoid robots: enthusiasm comes first, mass production is still on the way
62% of companies bet on humanoid robots: enthusiasm comes first, mass production is still on the way
Morgan Stanley's latest survey has dropped an 'efficiency bomb' in the market: among the Chinese companies surveyed, more than 60% of management stated that it is 'very likely' they will introduce humanoid robots in the next three years. This number is stimulating enough and astonishing enough, implying that a technology originally belonging in laboratories is being drawn into the corporate management timeline, becoming a new option for cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and process restructuring.
However, behind the enthusiasm lies calmness. Companies are not blindly buying in just because they are 'optimistic.' The survey shows that currently, only a little over 20% truly feel 'satisfied' with humanoid robots, and most executives frankly state that the products are still immature, with shortcomings concentrated in operational flexibility, functionality completeness, and stability. A more realistic issue comes from pricing: over 90% of respondents have set a 'passing line' — the single machine price must drop below 200,000 yuan to talk about large-scale promotion. In other words, technology must cross the hurdle of 'usable' and also strive for 'good and cheap.'
Morgan Stanley's latest survey has dropped an 'efficiency bomb' in the market: among the Chinese companies surveyed, more than 60% of management stated that it is 'very likely' they will introduce humanoid robots in the next three years. This number is stimulating enough and astonishing enough, implying that a technology originally belonging in laboratories is being drawn into the corporate management timeline, becoming a new option for cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and process restructuring.
However, behind the enthusiasm lies calmness. Companies are not blindly buying in just because they are 'optimistic.' The survey shows that currently, only a little over 20% truly feel 'satisfied' with humanoid robots, and most executives frankly state that the products are still immature, with shortcomings concentrated in operational flexibility, functionality completeness, and stability. A more realistic issue comes from pricing: over 90% of respondents have set a 'passing line' — the single machine price must drop below 200,000 yuan to talk about large-scale promotion. In other words, technology must cross the hurdle of 'usable' and also strive for 'good and cheap.'
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The afternoon index seems frozen, controlled to the point of having nothing to say. Don't be deceived by these appearances; the weak state of market sentiment says it all. Patiently wait for the market sentiment to shift from weak to strong; before that, all appearances cannot change the fact that the market adjustment has not ended.
But what kind of impact will repeated pulls cause? Especially the repeated pulls near the first support point of 3867, I have already explained this very very very in detail in last night's article.
But what kind of impact will repeated pulls cause? Especially the repeated pulls near the first support point of 3867, I have already explained this very very very in detail in last night's article.
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Loyal Hassett takes office, will the Federal Reserve really unleash a flood of liquidity? Deutsche Bank's answer is very calm.
Loyal Hassett takes office, will the Federal Reserve really unleash a flood of liquidity? Deutsche Bank's answer is very calm.
In the market narrative, 'Loyal Hassett' is almost synonymous with 'guaranteed low interest rates'. With Trump seen as the next president, the current Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, is the frontrunner for the Fed chair position. According to the latest data from the Kalshi prediction market, his odds of taking the Fed chair have exceeded 80%, and asset markets are beginning to bet on a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. However, Deutsche Bank poured a bucket of cold water in its latest research report: even if Hassett successfully takes office, the actual monetary policy path is likely to be more moderate and neutral than the market imagines, and investors need to be wary of overly optimistic 'dovish fantasies'.
In the market narrative, 'Loyal Hassett' is almost synonymous with 'guaranteed low interest rates'. With Trump seen as the next president, the current Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, is the frontrunner for the Fed chair position. According to the latest data from the Kalshi prediction market, his odds of taking the Fed chair have exceeded 80%, and asset markets are beginning to bet on a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. However, Deutsche Bank poured a bucket of cold water in its latest research report: even if Hassett successfully takes office, the actual monetary policy path is likely to be more moderate and neutral than the market imagines, and investors need to be wary of overly optimistic 'dovish fantasies'.
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After a slight dip in the morning index, a rebound occurred under the influence of institutions, similar in meaning and nature to the slight pull-up at the end of yesterday. The market sentiment has remained relatively weak throughout this process. The adjustment here is not over, but seeing such fluctuations near the first support level of 3867 is a good thing, as it ensures the safety of the second support level to a certain extent.
Continue to closely monitor the changes in market sentiment; there is still hope for a weak turnaround here.
Continue to closely monitor the changes in market sentiment; there is still hope for a weak turnaround here.
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Copper prices reach a new historical high, Wall Street bets that the 'super copper bull market' has just begun
Copper prices reach a new historical high, Wall Street bets that the 'super copper bull market' has just begun
The current round of international copper price increases has already crossed a milestone. From last Friday to this Monday, London copper futures continuously broke historical highs, reaching $11,197.5 per ton at the time of writing, with a cumulative increase of 27.5% for the year, peaking at one point at $11,480. For Wall Street, this is not an ordinary rebound but a signal that the new round of the 'copper bull cycle' is entering an acceleration phase. The conclusions from several top institutions are very simple: copper prices are set to rise further, and this will be a systemic increase over the medium to long term.
The current round of international copper price increases has already crossed a milestone. From last Friday to this Monday, London copper futures continuously broke historical highs, reaching $11,197.5 per ton at the time of writing, with a cumulative increase of 27.5% for the year, peaking at one point at $11,480. For Wall Street, this is not an ordinary rebound but a signal that the new round of the 'copper bull cycle' is entering an acceleration phase. The conclusions from several top institutions are very simple: copper prices are set to rise further, and this will be a systemic increase over the medium to long term.
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Morning opening, unfortunately, we were unable to see signs of weakness in the market's sentiment, which means that even though we saw "a slight increase in the index with no substantial meaning" yesterday, the adjustment will continue. Next, we will repeatedly focus on the two support points below, and we are currently briefly breaking the first support point.
Continue to closely monitor the changes in the market's sentiment. The significance behind the second support point has been analyzed in detail by me again last night.
Continue to closely monitor the changes in the market's sentiment. The significance behind the second support point has been analyzed in detail by me again last night.
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#Old Bull's Midnight Contemplation# The First Rule of Fishing: The True Skills Left by Charlie Munger for Investors
#Old Bull's Midnight Contemplation# The First Rule of Fishing: The True Skills Left by Charlie Munger for Investors
Throughout his life, Charlie Munger has actually been doing a few simple things repeatedly: learning to think correctly, being honest in conduct and work, and patiently fishing in places where there are fish. Many people see him as 'the man behind Buffett,' but if you string together the thoughts he left behind, you will find that this elderly man's life itself is the best illustration of 'what wisdom really means.'
1. What is 'wisdom': Grasping a few good ways of thinking in youth
Munger said that his success is simply because he grasped a few thinking methods in his youth and then used them for a lifetime.
Throughout his life, Charlie Munger has actually been doing a few simple things repeatedly: learning to think correctly, being honest in conduct and work, and patiently fishing in places where there are fish. Many people see him as 'the man behind Buffett,' but if you string together the thoughts he left behind, you will find that this elderly man's life itself is the best illustration of 'what wisdom really means.'
1. What is 'wisdom': Grasping a few good ways of thinking in youth
Munger said that his success is simply because he grasped a few thinking methods in his youth and then used them for a lifetime.
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