祁菲-F
加密指导，盘面分析，日内短线，波段长线合约，围脖 祁菲-F
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Important events and data forecast for next week - Federal Reserve, Australia, Switzerland, and Canada's interest rate decisions are coming up; China will release November CPI and social financing data.
Monday: ① Data: Japan's October trade balance; Germany's October seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month; Switzerland's November consumer confidence index; Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index; China's November trade balance. ② Event: Domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment window.
Tuesday: ① Data: U.S. November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Germany's October seasonally adjusted trade balance; U.S. November NFIB small business confidence index; U.S. October JOLTs job openings.
② Event: Australia's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia on December 9; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will hold a monetary policy press conference.
Tuesday: ① Data: U.S. November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Germany's October seasonally adjusted trade balance; U.S. November NFIB small business confidence index; U.S. October JOLTs job openings.
② Event: Australia's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia on December 9; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will hold a monetary policy press conference.
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Gold Market Trend Outlook and Analysis for Next Week
Next week, gold will continue to fluctuate at high levels waiting for a breakthrough. The game between bulls and bears will intensify ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with 4200-4260 USD being the core contested range. The medium to long-term upward trend remains unchanged, but in the short term, caution is needed regarding the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' market response.
1. Core Driving Factors Analysis
1. Bullish Support: Interest Rate Cut Expectations + Central Bank Gold Purchases Solidifying the Bottom
- The market's pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has reached 87.6%. Combined with a moderate decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, the US dollar index is fluctuating weakly, providing core liquidity support for gold prices.
- The long-term trend of global central banks continuing to purchase gold remains unchanged, with official reserve demand creating a 'floor price' effect. Combined with potential premiums from geopolitical risks, this limits the space for gold price corrections.
1. Core Driving Factors Analysis
1. Bullish Support: Interest Rate Cut Expectations + Central Bank Gold Purchases Solidifying the Bottom
- The market's pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has reached 87.6%. Combined with a moderate decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, the US dollar index is fluctuating weakly, providing core liquidity support for gold prices.
- The long-term trend of global central banks continuing to purchase gold remains unchanged, with official reserve demand creating a 'floor price' effect. Combined with potential premiums from geopolitical risks, this limits the space for gold price corrections.
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Gold's December 11th Showdown with the Federal Reserve: The Decision Night Will Set the Trend for the Year
Gold is currently at a critical turning point of high volatility, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision released on December 11th at 3:00 (issued by the Federal Reserve, 8 times a year, five-star importance) will become the core event to break the sideways pattern and define the subsequent trend.
From the perspective of event attributes, this decision is one of the regular policy meetings of the Federal Reserve, held once every 7 weeks, with quarterly sessions simultaneously announcing economic forecasts. Its policy signals have a decisive impact on global asset pricing—this decision's "special weight" lies in the fact that the market has already fully digested the baseline expectation of a "25 basis point rate cut," and the true volatility driver will focus on the wording of the decision statement and Powell's press conference statements.
From the perspective of gold's impact logic, the core contradiction of the current gold price is the "directional choice after the realization of rate cut expectations":
If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals (such as emphasizing in the statement that "the decline in inflation supports further easing" or Powell hinting that "there is still room for rate cuts in 2026"), then the market's expectation of liquidity easing will further heat up, and gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset will increase, likely testing the key resistance at 4264 upwards, or even breaking the previous high to open up new upward space;
If the Federal Reserve shifts to hawkish statements (such as mentioning in the statement that "sticky inflation still needs to be monitored" or Powell clearly stating "pausing rate cuts to observe data"), then the previously priced-in benefits of rate cuts will face "realization and correction" pressure, and gold prices may quickly fall back, with the primary test at the support level of 4185. If it fails to hold, it will further test the key support at 4163!
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储官员集体发声
Gold is currently at a critical turning point of high volatility, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision released on December 11th at 3:00 (issued by the Federal Reserve, 8 times a year, five-star importance) will become the core event to break the sideways pattern and define the subsequent trend.
From the perspective of event attributes, this decision is one of the regular policy meetings of the Federal Reserve, held once every 7 weeks, with quarterly sessions simultaneously announcing economic forecasts. Its policy signals have a decisive impact on global asset pricing—this decision's "special weight" lies in the fact that the market has already fully digested the baseline expectation of a "25 basis point rate cut," and the true volatility driver will focus on the wording of the decision statement and Powell's press conference statements.
From the perspective of gold's impact logic, the core contradiction of the current gold price is the "directional choice after the realization of rate cut expectations":
If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals (such as emphasizing in the statement that "the decline in inflation supports further easing" or Powell hinting that "there is still room for rate cuts in 2026"), then the market's expectation of liquidity easing will further heat up, and gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset will increase, likely testing the key resistance at 4264 upwards, or even breaking the previous high to open up new upward space;
If the Federal Reserve shifts to hawkish statements (such as mentioning in the statement that "sticky inflation still needs to be monitored" or Powell clearly stating "pausing rate cuts to observe data"), then the previously priced-in benefits of rate cuts will face "realization and correction" pressure, and gold prices may quickly fall back, with the primary test at the support level of 4185. If it fails to hold, it will further test the key support at 4163!
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储官员集体发声
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Dissecting the Logic of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts: Once the Core Framework is Clarified, It is Actually Not Complex
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are always anchored in the U.S. domestic context, with only two core objectives—ensuring full employment and maintaining price stability. All considerations revolve around the fundamentals of the domestic economy, without regard for the operating conditions of other global markets, and it is impossible to alleviate the housing market difficulties of other countries through the release of liquidity.
Currently, inflation in the United States has not yet fallen back to the policy target line of 2%, and the pressure of high inflation has not been completely alleviated, which fundamentally undermines the core premise for interest rate cuts. At the same time, the U.S. economy shows considerable resilience, with demand in the labor market consistently strong. The issue is not a lack of job supply, but rather a gap in employment willingness among certain segments of the workforce, which gives the Federal Reserve enough confidence to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation. Even if interest rate cuts stimulate businesses to expand capacity and increase hiring, it will be difficult to effectively entice this segment of the workforce back into the market, and the actual policy effectiveness of interest rate cuts will be significantly diminished.
Currently, inflation in the United States has not yet fallen back to the policy target line of 2%, and the pressure of high inflation has not been completely alleviated, which fundamentally undermines the core premise for interest rate cuts. At the same time, the U.S. economy shows considerable resilience, with demand in the labor market consistently strong. The issue is not a lack of job supply, but rather a gap in employment willingness among certain segments of the workforce, which gives the Federal Reserve enough confidence to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation. Even if interest rate cuts stimulate businesses to expand capacity and increase hiring, it will be difficult to effectively entice this segment of the workforce back into the market, and the actual policy effectiveness of interest rate cuts will be significantly diminished.
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Gold faces a critical juncture next week! The Federal Reserve's decision will set the direction.
Gold is about to change dramatically next week! It is currently stuck at a key node of high-level fluctuations, with all eyes focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision—this is highly likely to break the sideways pattern and directly trigger significant volatility!
The market has mostly digested the 25 basis point rate cut, and what can truly influence the gold price now is the wording of the statement after the decision and Powell's press conference. If the Federal Reserve sends a more dovish signal, suggesting that there will be further rate cuts, gold prices could directly rush to the 4264 resistance, and even break new highs is possible; but if the statement is hawkish and suggests pausing rate cuts, then gold must be cautious as the positive news might lead to a correction!
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储降息预期升温 $BTC $ETH
Gold is about to change dramatically next week! It is currently stuck at a key node of high-level fluctuations, with all eyes focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision—this is highly likely to break the sideways pattern and directly trigger significant volatility!
The market has mostly digested the 25 basis point rate cut, and what can truly influence the gold price now is the wording of the statement after the decision and Powell's press conference. If the Federal Reserve sends a more dovish signal, suggesting that there will be further rate cuts, gold prices could directly rush to the 4264 resistance, and even break new highs is possible; but if the statement is hawkish and suggests pausing rate cuts, then gold must be cautious as the positive news might lead to a correction!
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储降息预期升温 $BTC $ETH
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Technical Insights: Core Logic of Fundamental Analysis in Gold/Oil/Forex, Easily Grasping Market Pulse
Fundamental analysis is an indispensable core analytical system in gold, oil, and foreign exchange trading. The core logic is to penetrate the superficial aspects of the market and focus on the underlying factors that drive market fluctuations—by interpreting global macroeconomic dynamics, accurately predicting asset price trends and exchange rate variation patterns.
Exchange rate fluctuations may seem random, but they actually follow core economic logic: when a country's economic fundamentals strengthen, its currency's intrinsic value and stability increase simultaneously, and the exchange rate often presents an upward trend; conversely, when the economy falls into a downward cycle, monetary credit support weakens, depreciation pressure becomes evident, and the exchange rate will also come under pressure and decline.
Exchange rate fluctuations may seem random, but they actually follow core economic logic: when a country's economic fundamentals strengthen, its currency's intrinsic value and stability increase simultaneously, and the exchange rate often presents an upward trend; conversely, when the economy falls into a downward cycle, monetary credit support weakens, depreciation pressure becomes evident, and the exchange rate will also come under pressure and decline.
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【On the trading path, giving up is the real zero!】
The most grinding aspect of trading is not the market's ups and downs, but the confusion of trial and error during fluctuations—clearly having a favorable direction, just when you stop loss, it reverses; holding onto positions, yet being washed in and out repeatedly, countless times thinking, "Forget it, I'm done."
But you must remember: in trading, before giving up, the possibility of success will never be zero. Just like recently with silver, after peaking at $58.84 it plummeted, how many people cut losses at $56.5 and missed the subsequent opportunity for a rebound; gold tested the 4240 mark multiple times, some got off midway, ultimately missing the breakthrough market.
A true trading expert is not someone who never makes mistakes, but someone who doesn't easily give up in confusion and finds the right rhythm in persistence. The market is always fluctuating, opportunities are always brewing, and every loss and every hardship you experience is paving the way for the next profit.
Don't let a momentary setback negate all your efforts. As long as you haven't given up, as long as you are still summarizing experiences and optimizing strategies, you will eventually wait for your own trend market.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
The most grinding aspect of trading is not the market's ups and downs, but the confusion of trial and error during fluctuations—clearly having a favorable direction, just when you stop loss, it reverses; holding onto positions, yet being washed in and out repeatedly, countless times thinking, "Forget it, I'm done."
But you must remember: in trading, before giving up, the possibility of success will never be zero. Just like recently with silver, after peaking at $58.84 it plummeted, how many people cut losses at $56.5 and missed the subsequent opportunity for a rebound; gold tested the 4240 mark multiple times, some got off midway, ultimately missing the breakthrough market.
A true trading expert is not someone who never makes mistakes, but someone who doesn't easily give up in confusion and finds the right rhythm in persistence. The market is always fluctuating, opportunities are always brewing, and every loss and every hardship you experience is paving the way for the next profit.
Don't let a momentary setback negate all your efforts. As long as you haven't given up, as long as you are still summarizing experiences and optimizing strategies, you will eventually wait for your own trend market.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
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PCE data is the most core inflation observation indicator for the Federal Reserve and is the only inflation guide before the December monetary policy meeting. Its published results will directly impact the gold price trends, with the core logic revolving around "Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations → USD/Treasury yield → gold valuation" transmission:
1. Data exceeds expectations (inflation stickiness exceeds expectations)
If core PCE or overall PCE year-on-year/month-on-month is higher than market expectations, it indicates that the pace of inflation cooling is slower than expected, and the market will weaken expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate cuts, even expecting high interest rates to be maintained for a longer period. This will push the USD index and Treasury yields higher, while gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, will lose its attractiveness, and prices are likely to be under pressure to decline. Furthermore, due to the increased weight of this data, the decline may be more significant.
2. Data below expectations (inflation cooling aligns with/exceeds expectations)
If the PCE data is below expectations, it will strengthen the market's bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates next year, even triggering expectations for "dovish signals from the December meeting." The USD and Treasury yields are likely to weaken, and the anti-inflation + safe-haven attributes of gold will be amplified, with prices likely to rise, and the momentum for short-term surges will be stronger than in regular periods.
3. Data meets expectations
Short-term fluctuations are relatively mild, but the market will deeply analyze sub-item data (such as service PCE and core PCE month-on-month). Gold is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation; however, due to the uniqueness of the "only inflation guide," funds will still cautiously speculate, and the market is prone to repeated tug-of-war.
Additionally, before the release of this data, the market has already priced in the increased attention brought by the "CPI absence," and the volatility of gold will significantly rise before and after the data release, easily leading to gaps, sharp rises, and falls. On the trading side, stricter control over stop-loss and position management is necessary.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC
1. Data exceeds expectations (inflation stickiness exceeds expectations)
If core PCE or overall PCE year-on-year/month-on-month is higher than market expectations, it indicates that the pace of inflation cooling is slower than expected, and the market will weaken expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate cuts, even expecting high interest rates to be maintained for a longer period. This will push the USD index and Treasury yields higher, while gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, will lose its attractiveness, and prices are likely to be under pressure to decline. Furthermore, due to the increased weight of this data, the decline may be more significant.
2. Data below expectations (inflation cooling aligns with/exceeds expectations)
If the PCE data is below expectations, it will strengthen the market's bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates next year, even triggering expectations for "dovish signals from the December meeting." The USD and Treasury yields are likely to weaken, and the anti-inflation + safe-haven attributes of gold will be amplified, with prices likely to rise, and the momentum for short-term surges will be stronger than in regular periods.
3. Data meets expectations
Short-term fluctuations are relatively mild, but the market will deeply analyze sub-item data (such as service PCE and core PCE month-on-month). Gold is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation; however, due to the uniqueness of the "only inflation guide," funds will still cautiously speculate, and the market is prone to repeated tug-of-war.
Additionally, before the release of this data, the market has already priced in the increased attention brought by the "CPI absence," and the volatility of gold will significantly rise before and after the data release, easily leading to gaps, sharp rises, and falls. On the trading side, stricter control over stop-loss and position management is necessary.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC
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Gold Trading Reminder: Gold prices hold up against the rising pressure of U.S. Treasury yields, will the PCE data be the "decisive factor"? Is the bottom-fishing opportunity here?
This week, gold prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range at high levels. Despite facing the dual pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar, strong support from medium to long-term dip buying and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy prospects have kept the gold market relatively stable. Particularly, as the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for September is about to be released, investors are holding their breath, as this inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will directly impact the decision-making direction of the December policy meeting.
Spot gold rose slightly by 0.13% on Thursday (December 4). Although the intraday fluctuations were not severe, they fully reflected the market's cautious sentiment: gold prices once dipped to around $4175, indicating the presence of short-term selling pressure, but then rebounded to a high of $4219, demonstrating that buying interest remains active, ultimately closing at $4208.60 per ounce. With the U.S. PCE data set to be released soon, market sentiment is increasingly cautious, and trading space has noticeably shrunk. On one hand, the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has exerted pressure on gold prices, as higher yields often attract funds to flow into the bond market, weakening gold's appeal; on the other hand, the dollar index has slightly rebounded after hitting a one-month low, but its overall weak trend provides a buffer for gold. On Friday (December 5) in the Asian market's early session, spot gold is narrowly fluctuating, currently trading around $4205 per ounce.
Marex analyst Edward Meir pointed out that higher yields have somewhat limited gold's upside potential, while the weakness of the dollar has made it easier for overseas buyers to afford gold, thus maintaining market balance. Overall, this subtle fluctuation in gold prices reflects investors' cautious positioning during the data vacuum period, making significant breakthroughs difficult in the short term. However, the intervention of medium to long-term buyers suggests potential rebound momentum.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美国初请失业金人数
This week, gold prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range at high levels. Despite facing the dual pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar, strong support from medium to long-term dip buying and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy prospects have kept the gold market relatively stable. Particularly, as the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for September is about to be released, investors are holding their breath, as this inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will directly impact the decision-making direction of the December policy meeting.
Spot gold rose slightly by 0.13% on Thursday (December 4). Although the intraday fluctuations were not severe, they fully reflected the market's cautious sentiment: gold prices once dipped to around $4175, indicating the presence of short-term selling pressure, but then rebounded to a high of $4219, demonstrating that buying interest remains active, ultimately closing at $4208.60 per ounce. With the U.S. PCE data set to be released soon, market sentiment is increasingly cautious, and trading space has noticeably shrunk. On one hand, the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has exerted pressure on gold prices, as higher yields often attract funds to flow into the bond market, weakening gold's appeal; on the other hand, the dollar index has slightly rebounded after hitting a one-month low, but its overall weak trend provides a buffer for gold. On Friday (December 5) in the Asian market's early session, spot gold is narrowly fluctuating, currently trading around $4205 per ounce.
Marex analyst Edward Meir pointed out that higher yields have somewhat limited gold's upside potential, while the weakness of the dollar has made it easier for overseas buyers to afford gold, thus maintaining market balance. Overall, this subtle fluctuation in gold prices reflects investors' cautious positioning during the data vacuum period, making significant breakthroughs difficult in the short term. However, the intervention of medium to long-term buyers suggests potential rebound momentum.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美国初请失业金人数
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World Gold Council 2026 Outlook: Three Scenarios Determine Gold Price Trends, Net Positions Expected to Rise Significantly
The World Gold Council states that, compared to the suppressive effects on gold prices, slowing growth, accommodative monetary policy, and persistent geopolitical risks are more likely to drive gold prices higher. Investment demand, central bank purchases, and gold recycling can provide additional support, but uncertainty remains high, and significant unfavorable factors still exist.
On Friday (December 5), during the early Asian market, spot gold fell about 0.24%, trading around $4,200 per ounce, still at a relatively high annual price.
World Gold Council analysts pointed out in the "2026 Gold Outlook" report that gold performed brilliantly in 2025, setting more than 50 historical highs with an increase of over 60%. They stated: "Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and positive price momentum collectively supported this performance. Both investors and central banks increased their gold allocations in search of diversification and stability."
Looking ahead to 2026, they believe that geopolitical economic uncertainty will continue to affect the gold outlook. Analysts noted: "Gold prices generally reflect broader macroeconomic expectations. If the current situation persists, gold prices may remain in a range. However, based on this year's circumstances, 2026 is likely to continue to be surprising.
If economic growth slows and interest rates further decline, gold may experience a slight increase. If a more severe economic recession triggered by rising global risks occurs, gold may perform strongly. Conversely, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration yield remarkable results, accelerating economic growth and reducing geopolitical risks, it will lead to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar, causing gold prices to decline."
They added: "Other factors such as central bank demand and trends in gold recycling may also affect the market. Most importantly, in a context of ongoing market volatility, gold's role as a tool for portfolio diversification and a source of stability remains crucial." #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
The World Gold Council states that, compared to the suppressive effects on gold prices, slowing growth, accommodative monetary policy, and persistent geopolitical risks are more likely to drive gold prices higher. Investment demand, central bank purchases, and gold recycling can provide additional support, but uncertainty remains high, and significant unfavorable factors still exist.
On Friday (December 5), during the early Asian market, spot gold fell about 0.24%, trading around $4,200 per ounce, still at a relatively high annual price.
World Gold Council analysts pointed out in the "2026 Gold Outlook" report that gold performed brilliantly in 2025, setting more than 50 historical highs with an increase of over 60%. They stated: "Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and positive price momentum collectively supported this performance. Both investors and central banks increased their gold allocations in search of diversification and stability."
Looking ahead to 2026, they believe that geopolitical economic uncertainty will continue to affect the gold outlook. Analysts noted: "Gold prices generally reflect broader macroeconomic expectations. If the current situation persists, gold prices may remain in a range. However, based on this year's circumstances, 2026 is likely to continue to be surprising.
If economic growth slows and interest rates further decline, gold may experience a slight increase. If a more severe economic recession triggered by rising global risks occurs, gold may perform strongly. Conversely, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration yield remarkable results, accelerating economic growth and reducing geopolitical risks, it will lead to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar, causing gold prices to decline."
They added: "Other factors such as central bank demand and trends in gold recycling may also affect the market. Most importantly, in a context of ongoing market volatility, gold's role as a tool for portfolio diversification and a source of stability remains crucial." #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐
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12.5 Morning Outlook, yesterday gold prices showed a trend of initial decline followed by a rise, and have not yet broken through the current stalemate. In the short term, it is recommended to follow the market rhythm, mainly focusing on flexible layout with short positions.
Do not rush to enter the market, wait until the market pattern becomes clear next week to plan accurately, which avoids the risk of fluctuations and allows for better grasp of clearer trend movements.
Suggestion: 4215-4225 range, target 4180-4200, stop loss at 4235
(Personal opinion for reference only, everything is based on the actual market!)
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政
Do not rush to enter the market, wait until the market pattern becomes clear next week to plan accurately, which avoids the risk of fluctuations and allows for better grasp of clearer trend movements.
Suggestion: 4215-4225 range, target 4180-4200, stop loss at 4235
(Personal opinion for reference only, everything is based on the actual market!)
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政
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The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has hit a nearly two-year low: short-term bearish for gold
1. Not only is the initial jobless claims figure impressive this time, but the continuing claims have also decreased to 1.939 million, and the insured unemployment rate remains low at 1.3%. The four-week moving average has also significantly declined, confirming the solid foundation of the U.S. labor market from multiple dimensions.
2. This data contrasts sharply with the previous November ADP employment figure, which showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs; however, initial claims, as an official weekly data point, have stronger timeliness and remain an important indicator for the market's judgment of the labor market.
3. However, the bearish impact of this data on gold is likely to be short-term and limited. The current market bets on a near 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December, and future assessments will also consider more comprehensive data, such as the delayed release of the non-farm payroll report to determine the policy path. The gold trend will ultimately be influenced by a combination of multiple data points.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察
1. Not only is the initial jobless claims figure impressive this time, but the continuing claims have also decreased to 1.939 million, and the insured unemployment rate remains low at 1.3%. The four-week moving average has also significantly declined, confirming the solid foundation of the U.S. labor market from multiple dimensions.
2. This data contrasts sharply with the previous November ADP employment figure, which showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs; however, initial claims, as an official weekly data point, have stronger timeliness and remain an important indicator for the market's judgment of the labor market.
3. However, the bearish impact of this data on gold is likely to be short-term and limited. The current market bets on a near 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December, and future assessments will also consider more comprehensive data, such as the delayed release of the non-farm payroll report to determine the policy path. The gold trend will ultimately be influenced by a combination of multiple data points.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察
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The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has hit a near two-year low: short-term bearish for gold
1. Not only were the initial jobless claims impressive this time, but the continuing claims also dropped to 1.939 million, and the insured unemployment rate remained low at 1.3%. The four-week moving average has also significantly declined, confirming the solid foundation of the U.S. labor market from multiple dimensions.
2. This data contrasts with the previous November ADP employment figure, which showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, but initial claims are a more timely official weekly data point and remain an important barometer for the market's assessment of the labor market.
3. However, the bearish impact of this data on gold is likely to be short-term and limited. Currently, the market is pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and future assessments will incorporate more comprehensive data such as the delayed non-farm payroll report to determine the policy path. Ultimately, gold prices will be influenced by multiple data points.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察
1. Not only were the initial jobless claims impressive this time, but the continuing claims also dropped to 1.939 million, and the insured unemployment rate remained low at 1.3%. The four-week moving average has also significantly declined, confirming the solid foundation of the U.S. labor market from multiple dimensions.
2. This data contrasts with the previous November ADP employment figure, which showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, but initial claims are a more timely official weekly data point and remain an important barometer for the market's assessment of the labor market.
3. However, the bearish impact of this data on gold is likely to be short-term and limited. Currently, the market is pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and future assessments will incorporate more comprehensive data such as the delayed non-farm payroll report to determine the policy path. Ultimately, gold prices will be influenced by multiple data points.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察
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The stock market is optimistically warming up, and risk assets and safe-haven gold can coexist without conflict.
The rise in the U.S. stock market has provided indirect support for the gold market. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, closing at 47882.90 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 0.30%, closing at 6849.72 points; the Nasdaq index rose by 0.17%, closing at 23454.09 points. This rebound is driven by economic data that boosts expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, although the decline in Microsoft’s stock price has limited the gains. The record 43-day government shutdown had made it difficult for investors to access official data, but the backlog is gradually being cleared, with non-government channels such as ADP and ISM reports becoming the focus.
Keith Buchanan, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, stated that the market is reacting positively to this data, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in light of weak labor data. Whether this tone continues as data continues to be released will determine the market's direction. The optimism in the stock market does not mean a weakening of safe-haven demand; rather, under expectations of rate cuts, risk assets and gold can coexist without conflict, as loose monetary policy often stimulates the stock market while enhancing gold's appeal.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金
The rise in the U.S. stock market has provided indirect support for the gold market. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, closing at 47882.90 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 0.30%, closing at 6849.72 points; the Nasdaq index rose by 0.17%, closing at 23454.09 points. This rebound is driven by economic data that boosts expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, although the decline in Microsoft’s stock price has limited the gains. The record 43-day government shutdown had made it difficult for investors to access official data, but the backlog is gradually being cleared, with non-government channels such as ADP and ISM reports becoming the focus.
Keith Buchanan, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, stated that the market is reacting positively to this data, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in light of weak labor data. Whether this tone continues as data continues to be released will determine the market's direction. The optimism in the stock market does not mean a weakening of safe-haven demand; rather, under expectations of rate cuts, risk assets and gold can coexist without conflict, as loose monetary policy often stimulates the stock market while enhancing gold's appeal.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金
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The US dollar is under pressure, hitting a new low in over a month.
The fluctuations in the global currency market have also injected positive factors into the gold market. On Wednesday, the euro against the US dollar reached a nearly seven-week high, closing up 0.43% at 1.1673 dollars, with an intraday high of 1.1677 dollars, marking the highest point since October 17. This appreciation is attributed to the eurozone's business activity expansion in November, which grew at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with strong performance in the services sector offsetting weakness in manufacturing. Steve Englander, the global G10 foreign exchange research head at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that there is an increasing amount of good data from Europe, and the market is beginning to pay attention to this trend. Meanwhile, the strengthening of other European currencies might indicate optimism regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially as the Kremlin stated that Putin accepted part of the US's suggestions to end the war and is ready for unlimited negotiations.
In contrast, the US dollar index fell 0.45% on Wednesday, closing at 98.87, with an intraday low of 98.82, the lowest since October 29. Following the release of the ADP employment report, the dollar briefly extended its decline, which is related to market speculation that Hasset will succeed as chairman of the Federal Reserve and promote further interest rate cuts. US Treasury Secretary Basant expressed optimism about the economic outlook for next year, but noted that interest rate cuts are still necessary due to weaknesses in areas such as housing. These factors collectively pressured the dollar, making it easier for gold to rise in an environment of a weakening dollar, as gold is priced in dollars and a depreciation of the dollar enhances its relative value. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, believes that the current movement of the dollar is mainly a correction, and technical factors may also support the euro, further pushing down the dollar. #美联储重启降息步伐
The fluctuations in the global currency market have also injected positive factors into the gold market. On Wednesday, the euro against the US dollar reached a nearly seven-week high, closing up 0.43% at 1.1673 dollars, with an intraday high of 1.1677 dollars, marking the highest point since October 17. This appreciation is attributed to the eurozone's business activity expansion in November, which grew at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with strong performance in the services sector offsetting weakness in manufacturing. Steve Englander, the global G10 foreign exchange research head at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that there is an increasing amount of good data from Europe, and the market is beginning to pay attention to this trend. Meanwhile, the strengthening of other European currencies might indicate optimism regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially as the Kremlin stated that Putin accepted part of the US's suggestions to end the war and is ready for unlimited negotiations.
In contrast, the US dollar index fell 0.45% on Wednesday, closing at 98.87, with an intraday low of 98.82, the lowest since October 29. Following the release of the ADP employment report, the dollar briefly extended its decline, which is related to market speculation that Hasset will succeed as chairman of the Federal Reserve and promote further interest rate cuts. US Treasury Secretary Basant expressed optimism about the economic outlook for next year, but noted that interest rate cuts are still necessary due to weaknesses in areas such as housing. These factors collectively pressured the dollar, making it easier for gold to rise in an environment of a weakening dollar, as gold is priced in dollars and a depreciation of the dollar enhances its relative value. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, believes that the current movement of the dollar is mainly a correction, and technical factors may also support the euro, further pushing down the dollar. #美联储重启降息步伐
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The decline in bond market yields strengthens the attractiveness of gold
The response of the U.S. Treasury market also provides solid support for gold. On Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 4.059%, the 30-year yield dropped by 1.6 basis points to 4.725%, and the two-year yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.486%. This mild bull steepening pattern of the yield curve mainly reflects the market's expectation of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields maintaining around 57 basis points, reaching a high of 58.3 basis points in early trading, the widest level since September.
The decline in yield directly reduces the attractiveness of bonds, while enhancing the relative value of gold as a non-yielding asset. The market expects that the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve — White House economic advisor Hasset — may be more inclined towards dovish policies, further amplifying this effect.
The decline in yield directly reduces the attractiveness of bonds, while enhancing the relative value of gold as a non-yielding asset. The market expects that the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve — White House economic advisor Hasset — may be more inclined towards dovish policies, further amplifying this effect.
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