The current market is no longer a place for ordinary people to play; it is a venue for professional institutions conducting data analysis and harvesting. Only by quietly engaging in quantitative strategies can one secure returns and achieve compound growth.
📊 Cumulative Net Value: 9.22 📊 Annualized Return Rate: 91.11% 📊 Maximum Drawdown: -13.71% The strategy is continuously running, with data dynamically updated. Quantitative empowerment in investment, pursuing outstanding returns adjusted for risk.
The biggest event this week is the FOMC interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. A rate cut is already a "done deal," with a probability of 89% for a cut of around 25 basis points.
My short-term inclination is that there may be a significant rebound from the end of December to mid-January. Due to Christmas, there will be no decision to crash the market. What we are now looking forward to is a strong rebound after the Federal Reserve meeting to welcome Christmas!
First of all, from a broader perspective, according to the latest market analysis, we are in a 'consolidation rebound' phase, and Q1 will truly determine the long-term trend. However, regarding Q4, there is a very clear signal: a significant bottom has already formed!
Hardcore evidence of bottom support: We believe that the range of $80,000 to $85,000 is at least a very solid support level for one month. Why do we say this? 1. Explosive volume: When Bitcoin's price previously fell to around 80,000, we saw the largest daily trading volume in history for IBIT (ETF), which strongly supported the judgment of a 'falling pointer.'
The latest interpretation of policies to prevent illegal activities such as virtual currency has arrived!
$BTC $ETH
比特羊btc
--
Bullish
Recently, the risk warning from the China Internet Finance Association and seven other departments has been making waves, but I believe there is no need for excessive interpretation.
If you look closely at the document, you'll find the key points are quite simple: The crackdown is on air coins, illegal stablecoins, illegal issuance of RWA, pyramid schemes, and cross-border money laundering, which are all inherently illegal activities.
Moreover, if you look back at history, you'll find that the risk warnings in 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 all occurred during periods when concepts were overheated and scammers began to emerge.
For ordinary people, the significance of such documents is singular: stay away from scams, avoid air coins, and do not get involved with CX organizations.
The ones that truly need to be cautious are those dealing with air coins (such as the highlighted π coin), OTC U traders, pyramid mining, etc.
Bitcoin around $80,000 has formed a solid downward resistance level. This judgment is confirmed by multiple data points: 1. Volume Verification: IBIT has seen the largest daily trading volume in history. 2. Institutional Movements: MSTR's stock price has released a massive volume again. 3. Options Support: The Q4 quarterly options have a huge scale, with solid support guidance in the $80,000 to $85,000 range (the December options have a massive open interest at $85,000).
(Q4): Focus on high selling and low buying around the $80,000 to $100,000 area. Time Span: Short-term trading mainly focuses on before December 26.
Our current analysis leans towards short cycles (within a month), and the long-term trend for Q1 will be evaluated later.
Hawkish Shock After Federal Reserve Rate Cut, When Can We Buy the Dip?
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected. However, in the subsequent speech, Powell frequently released hawkish signals, which directly led to the collapse of the entire crypto market. Powell mentioned that more and more Federal Reserve officials wish to postpone rate cuts, and without new information, there would be reasons to slow down rate cuts, with the rate cut in December still uncertain. As a result, traders have reduced the probability of another rate cut in December from nearly 90% to less than 50%. Market Retracement and Liquidation Hawkish remarks have led to a significant pullback in risk assets. Bitcoin fell to a low of 110,000 USD, and Ethereum also dropped below 4,000 USD, with a low point even returning to 3,840 USD. Nearly 430 million USD in long positions were liquidated in the market within 12 hours, with over 300 million USD liquidated in just half an hour after Powell's speech.