夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

Today I’m specifically picking three
I think you can pay attention to the following knockoffs

$ROBO 、$HOME 、$PENGU
Exactly three completely different directions.

$ROBO is currently around $0.0134, with a market cap of about $30 million. I think it’s mainly along the AI robot track; Fabric Protocol is doing things like robots, AI agents, and on-chain payments. The key point is that these knockoffs have already risen in a round recently—it hasn’t really moved much instead.

$HOME is currently around $0.0064. I bought this earlier. What’s interesting is that the protocol uses 80% of its revenue to buy back HOME every week, and since the price has now returned to the bottom range again, I still think there’s room for a catch-up rally.

$PENGU is currently around $0.0098. In the past 7 days it’s already risen by more than 60%. Pudgy Penguins itself has an IP, physical retail, and recent IPO expectations—if the meme sector keeps running, it’s one I’m relatively optimistic about.

One AI robot, one low-market-cap DeFi, and one meme IP—those three are the ones I specifically singled out to keep an eye on recently.

SpaceX slips back near its IPO
I still think the valuation is expensive

SpaceX has recently fallen back to around $137, and it’s now very close to the $135 IPO price.

But even after the drop, I still don’t think it’s cheap.

Based on the current share price, the equity value of SpaceX is still close to $1.86 trillion. At the same time, on August 20, about 319 million shares entered a state where they can be sold, and more lock-up periods will continue to expire through 2027.

The company’s growth is indeed extremely strong—its Q2 revenue hit $7.8 billion, nearly doubling year over year, but capital expenditures were as high as $18.4 billion.

So the biggest issue for SpaceX right now has never been whether the company is good.

Of course the company is great; the problem is that the market has already priced in a lot of the growth for many years ahead.

From $225 down to $137, I still don’t think the valuation is cheap. If you really want me to start feeling it’s good value, I’ll keep waiting.

$SPCX $SPCXB

The US hits Iran hard, but crude oil actually falls

This time, the US has launched a new round of economic pressure on Iran. Nearly 60 Iran-related entities have been sanctioned, and it has even warned that countries and companies continuing to do business with Iran may be cut off from the dollar system.

Normally, when news like this comes out, oil prices should rise.

Instead, WTI fell by 2.4% to around $85, and Brent also dropped to around $92.

I think what the market is pricing right now is quite interesting.

People may be starting to believe that, as the US shifts from military pressure to broader economic sanctions, it could actually increase the chances of renewed talks and a cooling of the situation afterward. So some of the geopolitical risk premium is being unwound first.

Iran risk hasn’t disappeared, but oil prices are becoming less sensitive to bearish news. This change is worth watching.

$CL $XAU $BTC

MicroStrategy took a rather unusual action this week.

Last week, the company sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock, but it didn’t buy a single BTC. Instead, it set up a cash pool of about $1.59 billion. Currently, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $75.4 billion.

I don’t think this means Strategy doesn’t want to buy BTC anymore.

The official filings have explained very clearly that this money can be used in the future to keep buying BTC, repurchase shares, or for other corporate purposes—basically preparing ammunition in advance.

Now that BTC has just broken back above $80,000, Strategy has chosen to hold cash first.

I’m actually quite curious: when BTC experiences a big pullback next time, will those $1.6 billion directly turn into buying pressure?

$MSTRB $BTC $CRCLB #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点

$BTC After it recently surged to a high level, it started to range.
But what I think is even more worth watching than the price is the capital flows.

Behind this round of rally, net inflows into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have clearly reappeared, which shows that this time it’s not only the futures market forcing a short squeeze—spot capital is also coming in.

BTC has risen a lot and still been able to stay at a high level—by itself, that’s a sign of strength.

Right now, I actually don’t want it to keep spiking up every day. If BTC moves sideways here for a while, allowing the chips to change hands again, it’s healthier for the whole market.

Especially since many altcoins are only just getting back up from their bottoms.
As long as BTC doesn’t fall back sharply again, the real room for upside later is likely still with the altcoins.

$TRUMP $HYPE

October may be when the main surge wave really starts; this is just the warm-up before the bull market

Lately, I’ve been increasingly feeling that what’s truly worth looking forward to may be October.

BTC rebounded from around $58,000 all the way to nearly $80,000. ETF funds have begun flowing back into the market, the U.S. Treasury has expanded its long-term Treasury bond repurchase program, and the rate-hike expectations that the market is most worried about have started to cool off. On the other hand, Trump continues to push for the CLARITY Act, and the U.S.’s regulatory direction toward crypto is clearly more friendly than in the past few years.

And October has always been one of BTC’s strongest months in history. Since 2013, most Octobers have ended higher, which is why there’s also a term: “Uptober.”

What’s more interesting now is that BTC has already pulled market sentiment back up, but many altcoins are still stuck down at low levels.

If BTC can hold steady in September, and once capital starts spreading from BTC into ETH, altcoins, and meme coins, October may be when this rally truly turns crazy.

$BTC $ETH $PENGU

$SPK I started paying attention—DeFi with real money backing is actually easier to overlook.

Recently I’ve been looking for altcoins that haven’t been pumped too high yet, and I think $SPK can be added to my watchlist.

Spark is no longer just a pure lending protocol. It’s moving toward becoming an on-chain capital allocation platform, deploying capital into DeFi, CeFi, and RWA. According to the official data right now, SparkLend TVL is about $3.55 billion, the Liquidity Layer is about $1.15 billion, and the Savings side still has roughly $2.36 billion.

There’s also one change in August that I’m particularly interested in: Spark is starting to tilt its direction toward B2B stablecoin infrastructure—aiming to build the underlying yield and liquidity tools for fintech companies.

This kind of coin may not be the most likely to get pumped in the short term, but at least the fundamentals have something behind them.

As capital starts rotating through altcoins, I think projects like this—ones with TVL, a stablecoin narrative, and that haven’t been wildly overhyped by the market—are worth taking a closer look at, like $SPK .

$PENGU Recently started moving, and I feel this round of meme coins shouldn’t be missed

$PENGU has clearly seen money returning over the past few days. On August 23, it briefly surged by nearly 14%, and the trading volume expanded rapidly.

I think the biggest difference between PENGU and a typical pure meme coin is that there’s truly an IP behind it that’s already moved beyond the crypto circle.

Pudgy Penguins’ plush toys entered Target stores nationwide across the U.S. in July this year. Before that, they had also consistently pushed physical merchandise, cards, and offline events. Recently, the NFT side has also become active again—weekly trading volume at one point grew month-over-month by about 244%.

So if a second wave of copycats really starts next, I think $PENGU could be brought back into the spotlight easily.

PEPE is purely about memetics, while $PENGU adds another layer: the story of an IP and a consumer brand.

Once something like this meets a meme market, its upside usually isn’t small.

$PENGU

Recently $ENA has truly started moving.

The price has already moved to around $0.18. From the earlier $0.08 range, that’s roughly doubled. In the past week, the increase at one point topped 60%, and trading volume has also clearly expanded.

There’s something behind this rally as well. Ethena just teamed up with FalconX to roll out a $1 billion secured financing arrangement, allowing USDe’s reserve assets to enter institutional loans with excess collateralization. In other words, compared to the previous model that relied on funding rates and basis yields, this adds another source of returns.

Arthur Hayes has also recently publicly reiterated his bullish view on ENA, even mentioning a potential 5x upside. Over the past couple of days, the market has clearly been rehashing and re-trading this narrative.

That said, the short-term move has gotten quite overheated. The 4-hour RSI at one point approached 94, so I wouldn’t directly go heavy chasing at this level.

I’d rather wait for a pullback to look for an opportunity. In this round, ENA has gone from being a coin nobody was watching to returning to the spotlight for capital flows.

Recently $ZEC has been疯狂炒作

I thought of another interesting person: Naval Ravikant from The Naval Ravikant series.

Naval has actually been an investor in Zcash for a long time—he participated as early as the project's initial fundraising.

In a 2017 interview, he also stated explicitly that if you truly care about privacy, Zcash and Monero would provide privacy protection to a level that Bitcoin and Ethereum have not achieved.

By 2025, he even directly threw out a line that was later wildly spread by the market:
“Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin.”
The meaning is simple: BTC is insurance against the fiat system, while ZEC is insurance against BTC’s transparency.

Even more extreme is that after this line reignited the ZEC narrative again in October 2025, the price later surged from the 70-plus dollar range all the way to above $600.

So lately, I’ve been increasingly feeling that the core of what this market cycle labeled $ZEC is trying to push isn’t just “privacy coins.”
It’s being repackaged into a different digital-currency narrative—other than $BTC .

$TRUMP has returned to around $2.6
Trump’s narrative is back again

$TRUMP is currently trading around $2.58, up about 7% in the past 24 hours.

After the recent big surge in BTC, market risk appetite has clearly come back. On top of that, Trump has been continuously pushing the CLARITY Act these days, so U.S. crypto policy is once again the market’s focus.

With this kind of coin, you don’t really need to research too complicatedly—the biggest narrative has always been Trump himself.

If the meme coin rally continues to spread, coins like $TRUMP —which have attention/flow and strong recognizability—I think are worth keeping an eye on.

ZEC reclaims the $500 level; the privacy-coin trend is still very strong

$ZEC is already above $500 and even touched around $523 today.

Recently, Zcash itself has had plenty of catalysts: the Ironwood upgrade has just been implemented, and with the market continuing to trade privacy coins and expectations for institutional capital, $ZEC has clearly outperformed many older “low-cap alts” in this period.

So $ZEC no longer seems to be purely just following BTC to catch up.

If $500 can keep holding, I think this privacy-coin theme may still have room to be traded further by the market.

$TRB is starting to catch up
This kind of old coin usually doesn’t move too slowly once it starts

$TRB was still grinding around the teens earlier, but now it’s clearly accelerating. The latest price, converted, is around $23. The 24-hour gain is over 40%.

This is the most noticeable change in the recent altcoin market.
BTC goes up first, and then funds start looking everywhere for old coins that have fallen far enough and haven’t fully recovered yet. A low-market-cap, high-volatility asset like $TRB naturally gets noticed by the money.

When it hadn’t moved before, no one was paying attention. Now that it moves, it’s tens of percent.
If the altcoin season continues, I think we’ll keep seeing this kind of catch-up rally again and again.

$PEPE single-day surge up 34% — meme coins really are starting to take the baton

Just the other day, I said it might be time to start paying attention to $PEPE , and now it’s really moving.
$PEPE is currently around $0.0000043, up about 34% in the past 24 hours. Trading volume has already expanded to over $1.2 billion.

This is exactly the logic I’ve been talking about earlier.
Usually after BTC pulls market sentiment back, capital won’t stay in BTC forever. Eventually it will start looking for something with more elasticity, and meme coins are typically among the first to kick off.

Now $PEPE has started running. Next, I’ll keep watching other meme coins that haven’t fully launched yet.

$ENS One day sees a surge of over 30%; copycat “laggard catch-up” is really starting to spread

$ENS also suddenly accelerated today. The price is now around $6.2, up more than 30% in 24 hours, and trading volume has noticeably increased.

This really says a lot about what’s happening in the market right now.
First BTC surged, then ETH and meme coins moved. Now even older projects like ENS, which have been down for a long time, are starting to pull up 20%–30% in a single day.

This is the clearest sign of capital beginning to spread into copycat altcoins.

Next, I’ll actually keep looking for those older altcoins that haven’t had a big move yet, but are already starting to see increased volume. The next round of catch-up could be in there.

$ENS

Next, I arranged $SCR into this position and went straight in

$SCR

Takeoff $BB