夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

$TRUMP has returned to around $2.6
Trump’s narrative is back again

$TRUMP is currently trading around $2.58, up about 7% in the past 24 hours.

After the recent big surge in BTC, market risk appetite has clearly come back. On top of that, Trump has been continuously pushing the CLARITY Act these days, so U.S. crypto policy is once again the market’s focus.

With this kind of coin, you don’t really need to research too complicatedly—the biggest narrative has always been Trump himself.

If the meme coin rally continues to spread, coins like $TRUMP —which have attention/flow and strong recognizability—I think are worth keeping an eye on.

ZEC reclaims the $500 level; the privacy-coin trend is still very strong

$ZEC is already above $500 and even touched around $523 today.

Recently, Zcash itself has had plenty of catalysts: the Ironwood upgrade has just been implemented, and with the market continuing to trade privacy coins and expectations for institutional capital, $ZEC has clearly outperformed many older “low-cap alts” in this period.

So $ZEC no longer seems to be purely just following BTC to catch up.

If $500 can keep holding, I think this privacy-coin theme may still have room to be traded further by the market.

$TRB is starting to catch up
This kind of old coin usually doesn’t move too slowly once it starts

$TRB was still grinding around the teens earlier, but now it’s clearly accelerating. The latest price, converted, is around $23. The 24-hour gain is over 40%.

This is the most noticeable change in the recent altcoin market.
BTC goes up first, and then funds start looking everywhere for old coins that have fallen far enough and haven’t fully recovered yet. A low-market-cap, high-volatility asset like $TRB naturally gets noticed by the money.

When it hadn’t moved before, no one was paying attention. Now that it moves, it’s tens of percent.
If the altcoin season continues, I think we’ll keep seeing this kind of catch-up rally again and again.

$PEPE single-day surge up 34% — meme coins really are starting to take the baton

Just the other day, I said it might be time to start paying attention to $PEPE , and now it’s really moving.
$PEPE is currently around $0.0000043, up about 34% in the past 24 hours. Trading volume has already expanded to over $1.2 billion.

This is exactly the logic I’ve been talking about earlier.
Usually after BTC pulls market sentiment back, capital won’t stay in BTC forever. Eventually it will start looking for something with more elasticity, and meme coins are typically among the first to kick off.

Now $PEPE has started running. Next, I’ll keep watching other meme coins that haven’t fully launched yet.

$ENS One day sees a surge of over 30%; copycat “laggard catch-up” is really starting to spread

$ENS also suddenly accelerated today. The price is now around $6.2, up more than 30% in 24 hours, and trading volume has noticeably increased.

This really says a lot about what’s happening in the market right now.
First BTC surged, then ETH and meme coins moved. Now even older projects like ENS, which have been down for a long time, are starting to pull up 20%–30% in a single day.

This is the clearest sign of capital beginning to spread into copycat altcoins.

Next, I’ll actually keep looking for those older altcoins that haven’t had a big move yet, but are already starting to see increased volume. The next round of catch-up could be in there.

$ENS

Next, I arranged $SCR into this position and went straight in

$SCR

Takeoff $BB

Go find the sh*ll coins that haven’t pumped yet.
The next round might be when they catch up.

Recently, $BTC has surged from around 60k all the way past 70k. In this round, Bitcoin was the first to move, but now the sh*ll coins are starting to follow along slowly.

Yesterday, coins like ETH, XRP, and HYPE showed clear catch-up pumps. Some saw over 20% gains in 24 hours, which suggests that capital is starting to spread from BTC into higher-volatility assets.

So lately, instead of constantly chasing coins that have already pumped hard, I’ve been looking for sh*ll coins that dropped deeply earlier, haven’t really been moving much these past few days, and whose trading volume has started to pick back up.

That’s usually how the market works: BTC first pulls market sentiment back, then the major altcoins start moving, and only after that does capital begin to spread into mid/small caps and meme coins.

$KAITO and $BB are already starting to move. Next, there should be more and more catch-up pumps appearing in the market.

At this time, the most important thing is to identify opportunities early—don’t wait until a huge bullish candle of 30% or 50% shows up and then realize it.

$BOME $DOGE

Urgent: Bitcoin Breaks $79,000 — This Rally Has Fully Accelerated

$BTC has just broken through $79,000.
These past few days the market has been rising way too fast. It surged back up from around $60,000. Today in the Asian session it only just crossed $75,000, and now it has directly charged up to $79,000—market sentiment has been completely flipped back.

The initial trigger for this move was still the U.S. Treasury expanding the size of its long-term Treasury repurchases. The market immediately interpreted it as a liquidity-positive development. Then Trump also met with crypto industry executives at the White House, continuing to urge Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, and U.S. regulatory expectations warmed up as well.

And the money really has come back. The latest U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, the largest single-day inflow in about three and a half months. The prior rally was no longer just short-covering.

I’ve been saying before that if Bitcoin at $60,000 can’t drop despite all these bearish factors, it’s likely this is the key bottom of the current cycle.

Now it has surged from $60,000 all the way to $79,000. The next $80,000 is the most direct hurdle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

$BB I think this position is a good place to start buying a little.
Recently I looked back at BounceBit. $BB is now trading at around $0.0095. It has rebounded about 13% over the past 24 hours. It has already gone through a very deep round of declines, and the project’s total market cap is now only around $12 million.

I think it’s worth paying attention to again, mainly because there’s been some recent progress on the fundamentals.

On August 19, BounceBit launched Borobudur, bringing in Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund BENJI. Users can use this kind of yield-bearing RWA as collateral, borrow BB, and at the same time maintain exposure to the returns of the original assets. And currently, the borrowing interest rate is set to 0%.

BounceBit’s own assets under management are still about $243 million. The business has expanded from the early days of simply generating BTC yield to stablecoins, RWA, on-chain credit, and CeDeFi. In the partnerships the official has disclosed, the ecosystem also includes Franklin Templeton, Circle, Centrifuge, Superstate, and others.

So for $BB , this is a position I personally like: the token price has already dropped very low, but the project is still continuing to build products—and recently catalysts have started appearing again.

Risks for small-cap coins are definitely higher. I wouldn’t buy a lot at once, but around $0.01 I think it’s a good time to start slowly building a position. If the market continues to recover, then we’ll see whether it can have another valuation correction cycle.

Bitcoin suddenly surged, and Trump pushed from behind again

This time, BTC abruptly jumped from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000. Trump indeed added another spark.

On August 19, Trump met with several executives in the crypto industry directly at the White House, and publicly urged Congress to move forward with the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. The U.S.’s stance of continuing to embrace cryptocurrencies has become very clear.

However, what truly ignited this rally was the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term Treasury bond buybacks. Once Treasury yields fell, market expectations for liquidity shifted immediately.

On top of that, after BTC broke through, shorts were liquidated in succession, and ETF inflows returned. Several positive catalysts appeared at the same time, directly pushing BTC back to $70,000.

So this round isn’t just Trump calling for a rise. It’s a convergence of policy, liquidity, capital, and short-squeeze pressure all resonating together. If Trump continues to advance crypto regulatory legislation afterward and $70,000 can hold, then I think this market cycle really can start to look further ahead.

$XRP $BTC $ETH

Recently you can start paying attention to $PEPE 、$BOME $DOGE meme coins

The reason is simple: usually when a market cycle is just coming up from the bottom, money most likes to go after things with high “elasticity” and the most direct emotional impact. Similar situations have happened before. Earlier this year, when the market first began to rebound in January, $PEPE surged more than 70% in a few days, and the meme coin sector clearly outperformed the broader market.

Now BTC is back around the $70,000 level, and market sentiment is starting to recover. If capital continues to spread from BTC into altcoins, I think meme coins are very likely to become one of the first groups to be actively traded up again.

$PEPE is currently around $0.00000319, and it’s still roughly 90% away from its all-time high. $BOME has also experienced a very deep drawdown.

So I’ve started paying attention to these two recently.

If this round of the crypto bull market truly gets restarted, meme coins usually won’t be absent—especially old coins like these that already had market recognition in the last cycle and enough liquidity.

Bitcoin stabilizes around $70,000—this time I’m starting to feel more optimistic.

$BTC After pulling back from around $60,000, it has now regained and is once again trading above $70,000. During the day it even pushed through $71,000, and the single-day gain briefly reached 11%, the highest level in more than two months.

I’ve been saying all along that around $60,000 is worth watching. During this period, all these negative factors never truly managed to drag it down. Now, instead, it’s directly rebounding back to $70,000, which suggests that the support below is stronger than I expected.

Of course, this move is also driven by a large amount of short-covering, so I won’t just outright call a brand-new bull market.

Next, I’m watching one key level: $70,000.
As long as it can hold up on any pullback, I’ll start treating the area around $60,000 as a very important bottom for this round. Above that, there’s also resistance near the 200-day moving average around $71,500. If it can break through together, then the market will be different for real.

$BTC $ETH

The “copycat season” might be coming back

Lately, looking at the market, I think it might be time to start taking “copycat coins” again.
For a while, the market was basically only focused on BTC, and most altcoins had fallen so much that nobody wanted to touch them. But recently, capital has started to shift.

ETH has already surged to around $2,270, reaching a high point since May; SOL, XRP, and some small- to mid-cap coins have also begun to bounce back. The total market cap of altcoins has once again broken above $1 trillion.

However, we still can’t directly say that a full-on copycat season has arrived.
The recent Altcoin Season Index is still around 45. Under the traditional definition, it usually needs to be above 75 to count as a true altcoin season. Also, BTC’s market share is still over 56%.

But I actually think this phase is more worth paying attention to. Because by the time everyone confirms, “Altcoin season is here,” many coins may have already finished the first leg of their run.

So right now, I’m going to start gradually looking for altcoins that have fallen deep enough, still have solid fundamentals, and whose narratives haven’t died—and set up positions early. $KAITO is the most recent trade I’ve started entering.
$SOL $BNB

The crypto market’s bull run may really be coming back

Recently, I’ve started to turn more bullish on the crypto market again.

$BTC has surged all the way back from around 60,000. Yesterday, it broke back above $70,000, and its high has already approached about $71,500. In just two days, it’s gained more than 10%. At the same time, ETH has also reclaimed the $2,200 level. Overall risk appetite across the market has clearly started to return.

Most importantly, this time it’s not just BTC going up.

The day before, the entire crypto market’s total market cap increased by more than $110 billion. ETH and SOL have started to move together. Even smaller coins that had been hit badly earlier have begun to see rebounds as well.

I’ve long believed that around $60,000 might be the key bottom for BTC in this cycle, and now the market is starting to gradually validate that idea.

If, going forward, BTC can truly hold above $70,000, I think this move won’t be just a one- or two-day bounce.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

Time flies so fast this year.

Be sure to cherish your time, okay?
$NVDAB $AAPLB $NVDA.US

$KAITO Dropped to $0.327—I officially went all-in on the dip
A few days ago, I was already waiting for $KAITO to keep getting hammered lower. Today, the price is around $0.327, so I officially entered and bought the dip here.

From the high point at the end of July, $KAITO has already dropped more than 70% in a short time. Market sentiment has basically been driven to rock bottom. On top of that, there’s the pressure from recent token unlocks—there are clearly fewer and fewer people willing to buy.

But at this kind of level, it actually starts to fit my buy point.
The project itself is still moving forward: Kaito Studio, Capital Launchpad, staking—these products are still running. I’m willing to take a chance on the recovery from here using this current price.

Of course, $0.327 may not be the absolute lowest point, so I’ll still keep some funds.

My first buy at $0.327 is already in. If there’s an even deeper hole later, I’ll keep adding.
$KAITO