夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

Yesterday after $LAPTOP went live, the truly outrageous part wasn’t “it fell 99%,” but the valuation in the first few minutes after the open.

On-chain data shows that two minutes after LAPTOP launched, the price briefly surged to over $300. According to The Block, the corresponding market cap even temporarily reached around $300 billion; Arkham’s data, however, indicates the liquidity in the pool was only about $4.8 0万.

This means the sky-high market cap you saw yesterday wasn’t a valuation built up by normal capital buying in step by step.

Liquidity was too thin, and with no mature price “anchor” at the opening, a large number of bots and early traders pushed the price to an extreme level. Then in less than an hour, the price fell from nearly $300 to around $4, and later in the afternoon it dropped further to about $2—retracing nearly 99% from the high.

Some people even snapped up chips at the open and sold them for about $1.18 million within minutes; on the other side, others put in around $200,000 near the highs, and after an hour their position was left with less than $3,000.

So this time my feeling about $LAPTOP is very clear:

Celebrities can instantaneously generate attention, but attention doesn’t equal consensus.

A market where the market cap is inflated to tens of billions or even hundreds of billions by extremely low liquidity at the open, and then completes a 99% drawdown within minutes—I basically won’t touch it.

#Laptop

$IOST At this kind of position, I’m actually more willing to start laying in traps

$IOST Now it’s around $0.0018, already an extremely low market-cap range.

Recently I looked back into IOST again—not because it suddenly added some new narrative, but because it’s now redirecting its focus toward RWA and payments.

The biggest advantage of an established old chain isn’t that the technology is so new. After several market cycles, its trading depth, exchange coverage, and market recognition are still there.

When bull-market capital rotates later on, it often seeks out coins like this—prices low enough, market cap small enough, and yet not completely unknown.

So I’ll hold a bit of IOST.

Not a core position, but the odds I’m getting at this spot— I think it’s worth waiting for one more round of catch-up gains in older coins.

$SC What I’m looking at is an old-school storage coin

An opportunity to be repriced again

$SC is now roughly around $0.001.
In this AI market cycle, everyone is buying compute power and chips, but I’ve always felt that later on, there’s going to be a direction that slowly gets brought back into trading again—storage.

The more data there is, the bigger the models become; the need for storage itself won’t disappear.

Siacoin has been doing decentralized storage for many years. Its biggest problem has never been the lack of products; it’s that the market in the past simply wasn’t willing to value such an old project.

So when I look at SC now, the logic is actually pretty simple:
As AI continues to expand, the storage narrative comes back, and on top of that, in a bull market, old coins rotate back in.

$WLD finally back to 0.43
My dip-buying position has arrived

When $WLD surged toward the $0.50 area earlier, I didn’t chase. Now it’s back to $0.43, and this level is actually the one I’ve been waiting for.

My assessment of WLD hasn’t changed because of this pullback.
What’s truly worth paying attention to with World right now is the “real person identity” demand that becomes increasingly important in the AI era. The more AI Agents there are, the more valuable it will be to prove that an account behind it is a human being—and without needing to disclose complete identity information publicly. The value of that will only keep growing.

And one of the biggest pressures WLD faced earlier is the release of token supply (i.e., chips being distributed). The market has been trading this issue for a long time already.

Why do I feel like $牛来
has a chance to become the next $币安人生 ?

Actually, it’s not because it’s listed on Binance today, but because I really like the way the chips were accumulated before it.

It’s not the kind of insider-game that suddenly appears—where a small group gets the full allocation early and then uses news to push the price up.

Before the bull run, the momentum comes from the community building it up bit by bit—people step by step buying in. I’d rather give a higher expectation to a Meme like this, because its consensus wasn’t created by a single announcement out of nowhere.

That’s also why I see it alongside Binance Life.

Today Binance listed $牛来

I think there’s a chance it could become the next $币安人生

Yesterday I mentioned on a Binance livestream to everyone that they should buy a little. Today they directly announced the listing on Binance spot. Now its market cap has already been pulled to nearly $100 million.

But at this level, I won’t chase.

After a new coin is listed on spot, the first round of token/chip swapping usually gets pretty intense. I’d rather wait for the hype to cool off a bit and see if there’s an opportunity to get back to a $30–40 million market cap.

If it really gets to that range, I’ll buy back.

$币安人生 currently still has a market cap of around $500 million. If the bull run can later hold onto the hype of the Chinese Meme, $30–40 million is a very comfortable odds range for me.

September 11 U.S. inflation data
I think it will directly affect Bitcoin’s short-term direction

The previous nonfarm payrolls were clearly higher than expected. Now the market’s probability for the Fed to hike rates in September is already around 60%, so this CPI will be especially important.

If core inflation comes in below expectations and rate-hike expectations cool off, Treasury yields should fall as well—this would be a fairly direct positive for $BTC . Conversely, if inflation again exceeds expectations, there will definitely be pressure in the short term.

But overall, I’m still bullish on Bitcoin.

As I said earlier, I think there shouldn’t be too much of an issue as long as it’s above $76,000.

Instead of seeing the volatility caused by CPI as purely negative, I view it as a test. As long as $76,000 holds, I’ll continue to trade in line with the long (bullish) structure.
$ETH $SOL

$ZEC missed out on $1,240?
I started looking for the next one—maybe it's $ZEN

With this round, ZEC has already fully hyped up the privacy track, but what’s really interesting is that capital is starting to spread into the lower-market-cap privacy coins further down the line.

Over the past couple of days, ZEN has clearly begun to surge in volume. Its 7-day gain is already over 50%, but the current price is still only around $7, and its market cap is just over $100 million.

That’s why I started paying attention to it.

Horizen itself is also an established privacy project, and it’s been upgraded to Horizen 2.0—shifting to privacy L3s on Base, continuing to build zero-knowledge proofs and privacy infrastructure.

ZEC has already proven that this narrative can be priced aggressively by the market.

If capital starts looking for the “next ZEC,” then a low-market-cap old coin like ZEN is actually the easiest to get targeted.

I can’t say it’s definitely going to replicate ZEC, but if it really does succeed, then at where $ZEN is now, what the market is likely to trade for won’t just be a 2x.

It could be dozens of times—maybe even 100x.

$牛来 target 1u

Yesterday during the Binance livestream, I happened to mention $牛来 , and I immediately felt like this coin was worth laying in a position a bit.

I didn’t expect that today Binance would officially announce it directly—$牛来 is going to be listed for spot trading, with a seed tag added.

From Alpha to the contracts, and now to spot trading as well—this route has basically been completed.

After reviewing the earnings of major protocols over the past 7 days
I’m increasingly valuing one thing about DeFi coins:

Whether the money earned by the protocol actually has any connection to token holders.

In this regard, the most direct approach is from $HYPE : over the past 7 days, about $12.1 million was used for buybacks. For PONS, it was about $6.35 million; $UNI about $5.07 million; and $PUMP about $4.3 million. Basically, they send protocol revenue back to the token through buybacks or burning.

Especially PONS—it directly buys back and burns about 80% of its revenue. The project has been live for only two months, and recently, its daily protocol revenue even surpassed PUMP for a time.

That’s also why I’m liking it less and less when people only look at “how much the protocol earned.”

Even if project revenue is high, if the token can’t capture the value, then eventually the project team gets rich and the protocol metrics keep looking better and better—while token holders can only wait for the market to eventually decide to assign a valuation. I’m becoming less interested in coins like that.

CAKE does have buybacks and burns, and it has been net deflationary for 35 straight months. LINK also started using revenue to buy LINK into the Reserve, so it’s not that they’ve done nothing.

But compared with more direct value-capture models like HYPE, PUMP, UNI, and PONS, I still prefer the latter.

Making money for a project in a bull market isn’t unusual. What matters to me when choosing DeFi now is whether they’re willing to truly feed the money they earn back into the tokens.

$RAY is currently around $1.35. Even though the increase over the past week is still more than 40%, I don’t think RAY will just be judged by that segment of gains.

Raydium’s biggest value is still its position in Solana’s trading ecosystem. As long as Meme, Launchpad, and on-chain trading on Solana continue to stay active, Raydium remains one of the most direct protocols to capture trading demand.

Recently, LaunchLab has also generated new hotspots of capital. STONK’s market cap is already around $140 million; and the Sunrise plugin from MoonPay PayBox has started routing the first-day liquidity of new assets directly to Raydium.

So $RAY , I’ll look at separately from $SOL .

The SOL I bought is essentially the whole chain, while the RAY I’m buying is the on-chain trading activity. If a memecoin season on Solana keeps spreading and Solana trading volume gets amplified again, I think a DeFi asset like RAY that can truly benefit from trading activity is a better fit for me than simply chasing a bunch of small Solana coins.

$WLD This time returning to around 0.45, I actually prefer to keep watching the upside.

$WLD Yesterday’s high still surged to $0.5059, and today it has already fallen back to around $0.45—there’s a pretty noticeable single-day pullback.

But when I went back over this rally again, what truly makes me keep holding isn’t the short-term price increase; it’s that WLD is now showing two changes at the same time.

On one side, World ID itself is continuing to move forward into real identity-verification scenarios. As AI becomes more widespread, how to prove that “you are a real person” will become increasingly important. On the other side, the supply pressure that the market has criticized most about WLD in the past has also started to enter a stage that’s easier to digest.

So this time, moving from 0.50 back to 0.45, I’d rather see it as a normal retracement.

As long as World ID usage continues to expand and institutional holdings keep increasing, my medium-term view on $WLD won’t change just because it drops a few percentage points in a day.

Also, from the perspective of price structure, around 0.45 is itself the trading zone that was re-broken in these past few days. Going forward, what I care about more is whether a new support can form here, rather than chasing the acceleration above yesterday’s 0.50.

If this bull market in DeFi is going to be positioned,
I would choose $CAKE and $UNI .

$CAKE is currently about $2.28, and $UNI is about $6.8. Compared with many DeFi coins that have been repackaged with new narratives, I’d rather buy something that already has real trading volume and whose token itself has started to clearly capture protocol value.

The most obvious change for CAKE over the past two years is on the supply side. PancakeSwap has achieved net deflation for the 35th consecutive month as of July. From September 2023 to now, it has cumulatively burned more than 57 million CAKE tokens through net destruction. At the same time, PancakeSwap’s cumulative trading volume on BNB Chain has already surpassed $400 billion, and tokenized RWA trading volume has also exceeded $1 billion.

UNI’s changes are even more direct.

Starting from late 2025, Uniswap protocol fees are officially used to burn UNI. Now the protocol fees generated by all v2 pools and some v3 pools will feed into this mechanism. Over the past year, the on-chain recorded UNI amount burned has already exceeded 100 million tokens.

So if DeFi becomes the direction that bull-market funds rotate back into later on, I won’t spend too much time trying to guess which small protocol suddenly goes 100x.

CAKE and UNI—one rides the trading ecosystem of BNB Chain, the other rides the long-term growth of on-chain DEXs.

For DeFi that already has scale and revenue, while the token supply is also decreasing, I would be more willing to position early.

Even today, Biden’s son is also going to launch a meme coin 😂

Hunter Biden has confirmed that he will release his own Meme coin $LAPTOP today, September 9. The name comes from the long-simmering “Hunter Biden laptop” scandal from back then.

This time, it’s not just a random project trying to ride market hype with some cheap “dog” coin—Hunter Biden himself is involved in founding it. $LAPTOP will be issued on Base, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. Of that, 30% will be allocated to the founding team, with a lock-up period of the first 6 months, followed by gradual release.

The funniest part is that the project even makes a point of referencing $TRUMP .

20% of the tokens will be used for airdrops, including a batch of wallets that lost money on TRUMP; another 30% is tied to real-world events—for example, whether the Democratic Party can win the 2028 presidential election, whether BTC can make new all-time highs, and whether the LAPTOP market cap can surpass TRUMP. If the conditions are met, the corresponding tokens will be burned; otherwise, some will be redirected to charity.

To some extent, political figures launching meme coins has started to look like a standardized playbook.

Trump has TRUMP, Melania has MELANIA, and now even Hunter Biden has turned his most controversial past directly into a laptop—LAPTOP.

That said, I’m going to treat coins like this purely as an attention trade. The project’s own disclosures are also very clear: LAPTOP has no governance rights, no entitlement to profits, and no real-world utility. Plus, before the official launch, a large number of counterfeit tokens with the same name already appeared. So if you really want to participate today, the most important thing is to first confirm the official contract address on Base. Don’t rely on the news—make sure you’re buying the correct coin.

#Laptop

$ZEC and $ZEN — I’m very satisfied with how things have been moving these past two days.

A couple of days ago, $ZEC pulled back from around $1,248, briefly dipping to a low of 1,118. At the time, I said that 1,130–1,150 could be a buy zone. The following day, the price climbed back up to around 1,248, and the pullback was basically quickly recovered. Today intraday volatility expanded again, but for now the trend structure of this leg that started from over $800 hasn’t changed.

Also, ZEC can’t be judged by the candlestick chart alone anymore.

About two weeks after the ZCSH listing, its asset size has already surpassed $500 million. It holds more than 550,000 ZEC—roughly 3% of the circulating supply. This number is still increasing. That means that every time the market pulls back, there is a real spot-demand source behind it.

Zen is a similar situation.

It rose from around $5 to $8.07, and then after several consecutive returns to the $6.8–7 area, there was still consistent buy support. Today it came back again to around $7.17. Over the past seven days, it’s still up more than 30%. Earlier, I said that $6.8–7 is the boarding zone, and that view hasn’t changed.

So right now, I’m keeping these two clearly separate:

One has already shown ETF-like continuous absorption of circulating supply, while the other’s market cap is currently only around $130 million. If the privacy sector continues to be the main narrative of this cycle, I don’t think there’s any need for these two positions, because normal pullbacks would just keep causing back-and-forth churn.

$BTC has now returned to around $78,000. After pulling back from last week’s high of $82,164, things on the short-term chart do indeed look ugly, but I don’t think we’ve reached the point where the structure needs to be broken or judged as damaged.

What I’m really focused on now is $76,000.

Before this round of上涨, $BTC had already completed a clear transfer of positions around $76,000. Strategy’s current overall average cost for its holdings is also already at $75,412 across 845,000 BTC. In other words, the $75,000–$76,000 area isn’t just a technical level—it’s also a very important cost zone for the market right now.

Now macro pressure definitely exists. Oil prices are moving back toward $100, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is around 4.8%, and the market’s pricing for a rate hike in September has risen again to nearly 60%. In this kind of environment, a pullback of BTC from $82,000 is, in my view, completely understandable.

So my assessment is very simple:

As long as $BTC can hold steady above $76,000, I don’t think there’s much of a problem.

Short-term back-and-forth consolidation between $78,000 and $80,000 is acceptable. What would make me re-evaluate this current move isn’t normal fluctuations of a few thousand dollars—it’s a meaningful breakdown and effective drop below $76,000.

$SOL is currently about $103–104. After dropping to around $97 near the beginning of the month, it has now reclaimed the $100 level again.

I’ve continued to watch SOL for a very specific reason: Alpenglow is getting closer and closer to the mainnet launch stage.

Based on the current mainnet upgrade progress for Agave 4.3, Alpenglow is expected to enter the activation process starting September 28. It’s not simply stacking more TPS—it directly changes Solana’s consensus mechanism, with the goal of pushing finality down to sub-second levels.

For $SOL , I think the significance of this is more important than just another Meme hotspot.

One of Solana’s biggest past issues is that while performance is high, during periods of heavy load the stability and finality/confirmation experience still needed ongoing improvement. If Alpenglow ultimately runs according to its design, then Solana is actually continuing to strengthen the most core part of its infrastructure.

So around $100, I’m still leaning bullish.

I’m buying $SOL not as a gamble—I think this round of Solana has already proven itself: it has users, trading volume, stablecoin activity, and DeFi activity. And even the underlying consensus layer is still being upgraded.

If all of these are continuing to grow, I see no reason to turn bearish on SOL just because BTC has pulled back over the past few days.