陈小晖

Apple reports earnings tomorrow at 6 a.m. Hopefully, hardware price increases won’t be passed on to consumers and trigger another pullback in the AI sector.

The market is skittish right now; the slightest news can set off a chain reaction. But there are two sides to everything.

Lately, other AI stocks have plunged twice on concerns about capital spending and growth, as well as expectations that results will fall short.

If anything comes in above expectations, that could give this rebound a lot more momentum. If you don’t want to bet on an uncertain outcome, you can wait until the 4th to add to your position.

Once the uncertainty has passed, see how the market reacts. There’s no rush to add until the trend turns upward.

#Apple

SanDisk’s $SNDK 20 stock split, 1-for-8. Before that, they pushed the share price down, and the funds are also more focused on next quarter’s returns. After the split, it’ll be much easier to unload the shares. Selling at over 1,000 per share was possible when there was enough hype, but there isn’t enough hype now.

It’ll become 150 per share, then they’ll lure buyers in, push it above 200, and start steadily unloading shares as the price drifts down. Who knows—maybe we really will be able to buy SanDisk for around 50 later 😂.

#闪迪

The second giant this year, Anthropic, is set to go public in the middle to latter part of next month, and is going to pull another $1.5–2 trillion out of the market. But right now, enthusiasm for the AI sector is cooling off way too quickly. Going public toward the tail end of the market hype is still pretty stressful. It’s hard to expect a very large gain.

Let’s run the numbers another way: even if the share price doesn’t rise, the company still gets the money it borrowed and can keep operating. The financing costs are close to 10% a year, and aren’t affected by market movements. It’s a win-win for Wall Street and Anthropic, plus there are orders tying all the big players together.

It’s like pumping up trading volume: after the IPO, if the stock goes up, you can use it as collateral; if it plunges right away, you collect the interest. Either way, the orders are still there, and the company has money.

For us, there’s still not much opportunity to get involved. The meat has long since been divided up among the capitalists.

Let’s just wait a little longer.
$ANTHROPIC #anthropic

For now, there's no need to rush into a very large position. Once all the earnings reports are out tonight, if there's another sharp drop, then we can go in big.

Let's get past this period of uncertainty first. There's not much to worry about now. This time, Google has also brought down everyone's expectations for AI growth.

That could be a good thing. Over the next 1–2 weeks, on November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will undergo a 3-for-1 split, which should increase buying demand.

And if oil prices pull back a bit during this period, along with some positive news to give things a boost, the rally could come quickly.

$SOXL still needs to churn around 100 for a while, shaking out profit-takers and rebuilding the uptrend.

#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘

This time, $SKHYNIX ’s earnings came in, and instead we got a short squeeze.

Microsoft and Google earnings, along with the interest rate decision, are also coming tonight. If it pulls back from here and then continues higher, there’s still some room for a rebound.

Based on the price action over the past few days, expectations are already being priced in ahead of the election. The rebound could last until the election is over, after which the downtrend may resume following a period of consolidation.

There’s still one week to trade the rebound.

In the short term, wait for a pullback and a wick. $SOXL is consolidating around 100. If it pulls back but quickly recaptures 100, then 123 is the next level to watch.

The 28th is going to be exciting: the Fed will announce its rate decision. But I don't think they'll raise rates this time, since the election is on November 4. There's no need for another hike before the election, and employment and the economy are holding up for now. Oil is driving inflation a bit higher, but you win some, you lose some—the growth in U.S. oil exports has been pretty incredible. Inflation is one thing, but they're making a fortune; even buyers in the Middle East and Europe now have to book oil years in advance.

There are a huge number of short sellers lately. And now we're heading into earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Any sign of trouble, and tech stocks could tank right before your eyes. At these levels, if their capital growth meets expectations and their earnings are decent, it'll trigger a short squeeze.

I still think the real risk comes after the midterm elections. The big crash hasn't happened yet. For now, I'll keep watching to see when the last two uptrends start to weaken. That's when everything will collapse.

#谷歌 $GOOGLB $MSFTB

Volatility is still likely to be high this week. Oil has pulled back a little, but it's still around 100. Right now, too much money is choosing to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries rather than gold. There's not quite enough liquidity in the pool.

On top of that, uncertainty surrounding the rate decision meeting in the early hours of the 29th has most people sitting on the sidelines and seeking safety.

If a rebound starts early this week, it means expectations are being priced in ahead of time—pull back after the rebound. If there's no rebound and prices continue to swing, we'll have to wait for the negative news to be priced in. We also need to test the short-term bottom.

I can't be sure this level will hold, so the only option is to build a position gradually on the left side. For very short-term trades, buy a little during an oversold dip and sell the same day.

#股票财报季

$SKHYNIX Earnings reports are due out soon, and market expectations are already sky-high. Once the news is out, I’m afraid we’ll still have to test the short-term bottom.

Bull markets tend to see sharp drops, while bear markets tend to grind lower. What’s worrying now is that things could start to feel half-dead.

After this wave of selling, the rebound has been weak. Even if we get another decent bounce, I still think we’ve entered the first stage of a downtrend: a sharp drop followed by consolidation and a slow decline. There aren’t many right-side opportunities to take advantage of.

If you’re going long, the only play is an oversold rebound. In the short term, there’s no way to trade the trend.

For shorts, wait for each weak rebound before starting to build a position. The grind lower shouldn’t be too rapid—that’s when distribution is truly getting underway.

#SK海力士据报拟派特别股息

$SNDK The AI chain needs more time to stabilize and rebound. Although time is on the bulls’ side, my view remains unchanged: we’re still within a downtrend. After the rebound, it’s probably best to exit or reduce your position as much as possible.

Now it’s just a matter of when the Magnificent Seven $NVDA really stop retesting their previous highs, and the uptrends in pharmaceutical and energy stocks come to a complete end. Only then will the real sell-off arrive. The current decline isn’t enough to truly put us into a bear market, but we’re getting close.

For this rebound, set your stop-loss at the new low. If that level breaks, stay on the sidelines for now, even if there’s another rebound afterward.

Start building short positions.

To everyone who got liquidated or took losses this time: I hope you can pick yourselves up again. One failure is nothing. Losses are the best gift on the path to becoming a better trader.

So far, the U.S. stock market has seen two rebound waves that fell short of expectations. Give it three chances, and if the third wave is still a weak rebound, then the strength of this rebound has to be questioned.

The market’s price action is right there in front of us. If it’s still this weak, it doesn’t really matter what explanation the market comes up with. Oil? AI falling short of expectations? Those are just explanations after the fact.

At least this proves one thing: for the major players, this level still isn’t a psychological price point.

Let’s wait for one last wave. If it’s time to get out, then get out—no looking back.

Might as well see tonight which stocks survive the sell-off and which get completely wiped out. We need to judge the flow of funds before placing our next trades.

#soxl

At this level, it all depends on whether the rebound that starts at tonight’s market open can continue. If it holds up through the close, that would be a relatively strong sign. But if we see another pattern like the past few days—spiking early and then pulling back into continued volatility—that wouldn’t be great. If the rebound lasts a couple of days, I’d first watch for signs that the rally is losing steam, then look for an exit.

There are also earnings reports and the interest rate meeting still ahead.

I still think this move in the AI supply chain is an oversold rebound within a downtrend, so it’s only suitable for a short-term trade.

Sentiment has rebounded sharply in the short term. The market could rally for a few days, but a pullback is also needed. Only if it pulls back without breaking support can we consider the possibility of a trend reversal. It’s too early to tell right now.

#StockEarningsSeason