MosleyMogul

Lie, still in love with you

#比特币收复6.4万美元关口 $BTC

$HOME short selling,

Typical Physics AI Project $ROBO
Friends interested in AI can follow; I’ve already built my position
#Aİ #物理AI

#特朗普取消打击伊朗待协议
Trump’s cancellation of strikes against Iran immediately eased market nerves, and oil prices and risk assets were repriced accordingly.

But I won’t directly equate “cancelling strikes” with “peace taking hold.” This is more like a tactical move that temporarily switches a military confrontation into a game of negotiation. What ultimately determines market direction is whether the talks can be sustained—and whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to stable, uninterrupted passage.

The headline arrives quickly; the agreement, slowly.

#伯克希尔股价创八个月新高
Berkshire’s stock hits a new eight-month high. I’d rather see it as a re-pricing of capital toward a “prudent balance sheet,” not merely as a tribute to a legendary investor.

High cash reserves, insurance operations, and diversified business make it a safe harbor in uncertain times. But a new stock high doesn’t automatically mean the valuation is cheap; what comes next will depend on operating profits, the quality of insurance underwriting, and how cash is deployed.

#原油开盘跌逾8%
At the open, crude oil fell more than 8% at one point. On the surface, it looks like a plunge in oil prices; underneath, however, it is that the geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out quickly.

The market is pricing in expectations that Trump may temporarily hold off on strikes against Iran, pursue negotiations, and that the Strait of Hormuz may possibly reopen. What is “predictable” here is not supply, and negotiations are not an agreement. If the strait does not truly resume passage, the drop in oil prices may only reflect the unwinding of the risk premium—not that the energy crisis has ended.

#日本三个月减持960亿美元美债
Three months after reducing holdings by about $96 billion in U.S. Treasuries, Japan—markets may find it easy to interpret this as “Japan no longer trusts the United States.” But I don’t think it’s that simple. Faced with pressure from yen depreciation, Japan may need to use its dollar-denominated assets to intervene in the exchange rate; the sales may be part of an FX defense and reserve management strategy.

What’s really worth watching is whether U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. dollar liquidity, and the yen carry trade will change in sync.

#BTC与LTC持有者被盗2.82亿美元 2.82 billion dollars’ worth of BTC and LTC were stolen. The most striking thing isn’t the number, but that it again reminds us: a hardware wallet isn’t absolute security. Many attacks don’t need to break the blockchain—they go after fake customer service, seed phrases, device processes, and people’s trust.

What really needs to be upgraded is the security system of holders: layered wallets, multi-signature, offline backups—and never disclose your seed phrase to anyone.

#BTC

#ADA涨近10% ADAA single-day move nearing a 10% gain is certainly eye-catching, but I won’t rush to label it a trend reversal. Meme coins often see capital rotation when BTC is stable. The first big bullish candle is what most effectively ignites sentiment and most easily attracts FOMO buyers.

Next, I care more about whether the trading volume can continue, whether the price can hold the breakout level, and whether the Cardano ecosystem has actually seen real incremental growth.

Let’s look at sustainability first, then talk about the new cycle.

Last night I was watching Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) for @BabylonLabs_io , and what I find most interesting isn’t simply “moving” BTC to Ethereum, but instead keeping BTC on the Bitcoin network. Through Taproot scripts and cryptographic proofs, BTC is used as collateral for Ethereum DeFi without relying on traditional bridging, wrapped assets, or third-party custody.

I think this could be an attempt to move BTCFi from a “wrapped-asset narrative” toward “native collateral infrastructure.” Of course, TBV is still running on Bitcoin Signet and Ethereum testnets for now, so the test funds have no real value. The next thing worth watching is whether native BTC can participate in DeFi scenarios like lending and borrowing with fewer trust assumptions. And as for $BABY , the native token in the Babylon ecosystem, its network governance, security, and ecosystem coordination are also worth monitoring over time.

#baby $BABY

Suppose there is a beauty pageant. The contest isn’t really about asking you to pick the person you personally think is the prettiest—it’s about making you guess: “Who will most people think is the prettiest?”

So you can’t just study the asset itself; you also need to study:
1. What kind of people are “others”?
2. What are the different decision-making logics of “others”?
3. Who do “others” think other people will choose?
4. What are the market funds prepared to hype up?
5. When will holders sell out due to panic, liquidation, or unlocking?

$RE The brain can’t see, and the eyes won’t see either