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Just now: Because Iran refused to make concessions on the terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump also refused those terms, Brent crude oil prices broke above $106 and continued to climb.
Trump’s mouth—really taking it to the extreme... Can $BTC hold on?
Many people are shouting that it’s a must-pull for National Day—let’s first look at the data!
ETFs have absorbed for 6 straight days, with nearly 2.8 billion entering the market, but the bid side is weakening day by day. The structure hasn’t broken, but the momentum is fading; liquidation on both the near end and both sides still has fuel. In plain terms, it’s not yet a one-way squeeze, nor a one-direction massacre chart. In a ranging market, you have to trade in waves.
BTC Options: Last Friday was the biggest options expiry of the year. Volatility wasn’t nearly as wild as imagined. What to watch next: ➫ Oct 30 (monthly) about $9.86 billion, extremely bullish positioning, Max Pain around 74k ➫ Dec 25 (quarterly) about $10 billion, Max Pain around 76k From the futures perspective, it’s still a ranging market.
BTC Liquidation Map: 🔹 80,500–80,800 ➥ Currently the densest cluster. Among it, multiple positions around 80.7w on the HL chain are liquidated at about $100 million 🔹 79,500–79,700 ➥ Long positions liquidated cumulatively about $330 million. After it breaks through 80.05万, it will keep providing fuel 🔹 75,500–75,600 ➥ Long positions liquidated cumulatively about $680 million—the thickest layer of gains 🔹 85,500–85,700 ➥ Cumulative short liquidation about $98 million, with HL seeing a single liquidation around 85.6 at about $18 million 🔹 88.1–88.2万 ➥ Short liquidations about $150 million—this is the move to prevent a fake-breakdown 🔹 90,000–97,000 ➥ Short liquidations cumulatively about $1.0 billion (HL chain large whale single liquidations: 92.7w about $12.9 million, 94w about $11.4 million, 95w about $50.18 million, 95.8w about $6.2 million)
BTC Technicals The daily price is still above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. RSI is pulling back with a neutral-to-weak bias. For short-term resistance, it’s around 85.3k–87.4k. The bulls’ consensus support is near 80k.
If $BTC breaks below 80,000 and can’t get back up, this leg of the bulls is basically over.
Lastly, a little easter egg: there’s a huge whale order at 63.7k hanging for an enormous lot. That looks like it’s trying to get the bulls to die—stay alert and watch for the next few days to see how it plays out.
A great river flows eastward, and the stars in the sky revolve around the Big Dipper……
I just saw that Mr. Liu Huan has passed away—he was 63. My first reaction wasn’t that a King of Songs is gone; it was, damn it—he didn’t even make it past 65.
My social security deductions have been taken out from my 20s until now. Deductions have worn down my waist, my stomach— and even my sleep. The account still says: “Just endure a few more years, and you’ll be able to collect at 65.”
Who the hell came up with the idea of delaying pensions? That’s the typical “draw you a carrot-on-a-stick” for cattle and horses. First they say, “Just pull the cart for two more years—then the grass will be yours.” Then they say, “Pull it for three more years—work a bit harder.” “Pull it for five more years……” In the end, the grass is still dangling there, swaying in place— and the beast has already collapsed.
For ordinary cattle and horses like us, how many people actually have their liver, lungs, and stomach still in decent shape……?
U.S. Treasuries suffer the worst selloff in nearly 18 months, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a new 2007 high
The U.S. Treasury market has experienced its worst selloff in nearly 18 months, as the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5.11%, the highest level since 2007.
This chart is screaming: the bulls are going to die! The near end isn’t extreme—the far end is where the money is made.
Looking at the liquidation chart, you can feel the panic in the chrysanthemums—so when are they going to smash it?
Break below 82K: major CEX bull liquidations are about 2.73 billion. Climb above 90.7K: short liquidations are about 1.12 billion.
At 85.5k, one poke—that’s only a small wipeout; 82k and 78k are the big liquidation traps. The 87k above is a thin pocket for shorts; only 90–95k has enough “real” short meat.
This week, the real gravity isn’t on the liquidation chart—it’s on Friday. BTC options expiry is about $15.7 billion, which is the biggest single ticket this year: Calls about $9.2 billion, Puts about $6.5 billion. Most max pain figures are still around 72,000–76,000, far below the current price.
If you hold 83k, the fatter meat is at 90.0–96.0k. If it breaks below 83k: the liquidation chart is when it starts talking—first 82k (on the order of ~2.7 billion), then 78k (the biggest long-bull zone—the big pile on HL).
One last logic point: I still don’t believe the market is turning bullish. In the medium-term, after the election, Trump wants the U.S. stock market pushed up. With that amount of money, where do you think they’ll pull liquidity from to make markets in the U.S. stocks? $BTC $ETH