The price of Bitcoin exceeded the $42,000 mark for the first time this year, further stimulating optimism about the mid- to long-term prospects of the crypto market. However, at the same time, due to the reduction of liquidity due to the closure of major markets during the Christmas holiday, the market is worried about the approaching Christmas. Concerns about a short-term pullback are growing.
According to PANews statistics, the Bitcoin trend in the week before and after Christmas from 2014 to 2022 (December 22 to December 28), the performance in these years was approximately – 4.1% (2014), -3.5% (2015). , 13.7% (2016), 6.9% (2017), -6.7% (2018), 1.5% (2019), 15.7% (2020), 3.3% (2021), and – 0.7% (2022).
Judging from the above data, the probability of Bitcoin price falling is 44.4%, with an average decline of -3.7%; the probability of rising is approximately 55.6%, with an average rise of 8.2%. In other words, even if Bitcoin falls, the decline will be limited.
Judging from this year's market conditions, institutions' overweight holdings have boosted market confidence to a great extent.
