2024.5.4 Macro Analysis

Yesterday, the non-farm data and unemployment rate were unexpectedly cold, which led to the resurgence of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and a sharp rebound in the cryptocurrency market.

Are there any risks in the future? What do you think of the market?

First of all, this decline has helped the cryptocurrency market to build a solid bottom,

cleared the profit-taking, and brought the price back to the 90-day moving average, bringing those who bought in the past three months to the same starting line, reducing the risk and facilitating further growth.

After the rebound, the market will continue to fall, and value coins should be bought in batches.

But this is a time of trouble, and there are three black swans that must be guarded against:

(1) Beware of the return of inflation data

After the data was released last night, we will look at

May 15: April CPI data

May 31: April core PCE

If the data is still higher than expected, the cryptocurrency market will fall again

(2) Beware of the expansion of the war between Israel and Iran

Israel may attack Rafah (Hamas' last base in Gaza) in May to expand the conflict with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Currently, Israel and Iran are at war, and this war will continue. As long as the two sides continue to clash, the logic of the conflict will tend to escalate.

Since ancient times, politicians have tended to ignite wars in order to increase their political survival and support. It is ridiculous to say that the fate of mankind is actually concentrated in the hands of dozens of politicians. If some lunatics click the nuclear button, the Third World War will begin.

Iran is getting closer and closer to making nuclear bombs, and Israel may take preemptive action against Iran's nuclear program. Once the war breaks out, BTC will still lead to a sharp drop in the currency circle.

(3) Beware of Mentougou releasing a large amount of BTC

After Mentougou collapsed, BTC worth $9 billion will be paid to these creditors.

The deadline is October. In April, some people said that they received legal currency compensation. Therefore, it is likely that the compensation will be completed this year. These people who received the currency will most likely sell it. Regardless of whether they sell it or not, the market will definitely fall in panic.

As the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the market rebounded due to positive factors, especially those who are fully invested can reduce their positions. The pressure level is around 64,000. After the rebound, it will definitely go down. At present, it is still a rebound, not a reversal. It needs a long time to build a bottom before the main upward wave can start!#美国4月非农就业人口增加不及预期