One of the recent market focuses is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in July. After the release of non-farm and unemployment data last week, the CPI data to be released this week has also attracted widespread attention. The forecast value is 3.1%, which is lower than the previous value of 4%, which means that inflationary pressure may be weakened.
However, despite the downward revision of the forecast for CPI data, the Fed seems ready to raise interest rates. According to the latest data, the probability of a 25% rate hike in July is as high as 92.4%. This shows that the Fed is ready to act regardless of whether the CPI data meets expectations or not.
In addition, the performance of the US economic and employment data also gave the Fed confidence to raise interest rates. Although inflation has decreased, economic and employment data still show strong growth momentum. Therefore, although the CPI data is an important game point, the market generally believes that there is not much suspense about the interest rate hike in July.
Judging from the market trend, the current market also reflects the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike. This is bad news for the market, resulting in a relatively weak market. In addition, the stimulus effect of some large institutions applying for ETFs has gradually weakened, and liquidity has begun to decline. The market needs some important news to boost sentiment and attract more funds to enter the market.
In this cold winter cycle, protecting the principal and avoiding losses as much as possible is the most important thing. In the trading market, those who can really make money are often long-termists who buy valuable assets at reasonable prices and hold them for a long time. Of course, this strategy may lack the fun brought by speculation. For those short-term speculators who are looking for quick wealth, trading with a position of 10-20% is also acceptable. By continuously making profits and gradually increasing speculative positions, this is a relatively reasonable trading method.
Pay attention to the layout opportunities in the market and the stocks that are worth layout in the bull market.
The first is fixed asset investment, especially Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). These two cryptocurrencies have always attracted much attention and are seen as trustworthy and long-term holding assets. They have performed well in the past market cycles, and many investors continue to be optimistic about their development potential.
The second is the second-layer solution, such as ARB. With the upgrade of Ethereum and the development of L2 technology, the second-layer solution will expand capacity and reduce transaction costs. As a leader in L2, ARB has been widely recognized by the market. Its excellent ecosystem and excellent user experience make it a popular choice for investors.
In addition, Bitcoin's second-layer solution ORDI is also worth paying close attention to. In recent years, Bitcoin's second-layer solution has faced many problems, but this also means that there are opportunities for improvement and development. Considering the participation of Bitcoin miners and other stakeholders, I believe there will be more innovations and improvements in the future to improve the usability and performance of Bitcoin.
