Honestly, net outflows hit $3.6 billion on the first day withdrawals resumed. That figure gave me a bit of a shock when I first saw it. But then I took another look at the market, and BTC was actually a little higher than the day before.
First, Binance’s official figures: Between 14:00 and 23:30 on November 1 (Beijing time), it processed about $4.65 billion in withdrawals and about $1.01 billion in deposits, for net outflows of around $3.64 billion, or about 2.1% of the platform’s total assets. Binance said withdrawal volume has fallen back after a brief spike. All 15 networks and assets in the first phase have been restored, while the rest are still being tested. The ZK reserve proof is expected to be released tomorrow.
My take: most of the people who wanted out probably left yesterday. The price didn’t collapse afterward, and that itself is a signal. Last night I said nobody was rushing for the exits. Looking at it now, I overstated that—some people did leave, but there was no panic selling 😅
BTC is now around $78,000, up 0.7% over 24 hours. This week, it’s traded between $76,338 and $81,840, with the low coming during the sell-off on the night of the hack. I’m treating $79,000 as the first hurdle. If it holds above that, then I’ll look at $81,800. To the downside, watch $76,300; if that breaks, the 120-day moving average near $74,000 comes into view.
ETH is at $2,272, up 0.75% over 24 hours, but still down 2.8% over 7 days. It’s the same old problem: it’s been grinding right around the 120-day moving average (about $2,256), and U.S. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive trading days. The stolen funds the hacker swapped into ETH are still hanging over the market, too. My take on ETH: it’s not weak, but there’s no reason to be first to make a move.
There’s a pretty clear divergence among altcoins. A few that stand out:
- TRUMP is at $1.69, up 7% over 24 hours. I looked around but couldn’t find any positive news specific to the token. It looks more like sentiment recovering after withdrawals resumed, plus positioning around tomorrow’s U.S. midterm elections. It’s a pure sentiment play—quick to rise and quick to fall.
- HYPE is at $87.70, up 14% over 7 days. It’s rising while the broader market falls, but a core contributor unlock is scheduled for November 6. I’ll be watching the team’s wallet addresses this week.
- RUNE is at $0.54, down 11.6% over 24 hours. On October 30, it jumped 14% to $0.70 without any news. I was already skeptical then, and it’s given back more than 20% in three days. That’s how these news-free rallies usually end.
- SOL is at $94, down 6.9% over 7 days—the weakest among the major coins. At $94, I’m not too keen on buying the dip.
Sentiment-wise, the Fear and Greed Index has climbed from 30 to 37. It’s still in fear territory, but heading upward.
There are just two things to watch today: the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 23:00 tonight (one hour later now that daylight saving time has ended), and tomorrow’s proof of reserves and the U.S. midterm elections. I care more about the proof of reserves—it’s the step that will truly put this incident behind us.
Curious what everyone’s doing: now that withdrawals have resumed, have you withdrawn your coins over the past couple of days, or deposited them back in? 🤔
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets involve risk, so manage your own positions carefully.