XMR upgrade timeline revisited | FCMP discussed for version 0.20 | Waiting for the official roadmap
My approach is to verify first, then participate. In the minutes of the Monero community’s October 26 technical meeting, someone asked whether the next version, 0.19, would be the FCMP hard fork. Maintainer selsta replied, “FCMP will be v0.20.” Participants also discussed releasing a non-hard-fork 0.19.x version first. The next technical meeting, scheduled for November 2 at 18:00 UTC, is listed in the official meta repository. The status of this information matters: it is a statement about the version direction made at a public developer meeting. It is not an official upgrade announcement, much less a confirmed activation date. The latest official software version currently listed on the Monero website is still 0.18.5.4, released on October 16.
FCMP++ is worth watching because it relates to Monero’s future privacy architecture and wallet compatibility. The meeting minutes also mention that developers are continuing to address review comments on the integration pull request, preparing a GUI program for the stress-test network, and emphasizing that some design details may still change in response to feedback. So the version number can help inform research into the roadmap, but what really affects users is code review, the test network, wallet support, the official release, and the network upgrade height. Interpreting “targeted for 0.20” as “the mainnet has already switched” conflates the development phase with production.
For the XMR market, I’m watching two transmission channels. One is that technical delivery could improve long-term privacy and usability; the other is whether users, miners, and exchanges can upgrade smoothly. If compatibility risks increase, that could actually add uncertainty in the short term. Binance Square’s current trending topics are mainly about Binance security and reserves, with no directly relevant, accurate trending tag for FCMP. Nor does Binance’s notice about stolen assets provide evidence that “funds have already flowed into XMR.” We can’t infer demand for privacy coins automatically from a security incident, much less frame a scheduled meeting as a realized catalyst.
As for the market reaction, at the time of writing, Kraken’s XMR/USD was around $605.65, with a 24-hour low of $588.50 and a high of $609.88. That’s slightly above the opening price of $599.03, but still below the intraday high. This shows a short-term rebound, but does not prove that the meeting minutes drove it. I’d treat around $610 as a confirmation level and around $588 as a risk level. If the price falls below $588 and fails to recover on a retest, the rebound thesis is invalidated. If it breaks above $610, I’d still wait for official updates on the code, testing, and release timeline rather than chase the price based on a single meeting discussion.
If I were trading this myself: I wouldn’t enter now. I’d only consider a small spot position on the long side, with no leverage. I’d open a test position equal to 2% of my total capital only if the price holds above $610 and then retests it without breaking below, and a subsequent official meeting or repository update provides a verifiable FCMP milestone. If either condition is missing, I’d remain in cash. The first target is $625, where I’d reduce the position by half; the second target is $640, where I’d close the rest in stages. I’d set the initial stop below $588, or act sooner if the loss reaches 0.3% of account capital. If the price falls back below $610 and stays there after entry, or the development team explicitly changes the upgrade path, I’d close the remaining position early. If the conditions aren’t met, there’s no trade—and I make no claim of profit.
Sources: Monero meta repository technical meeting #191 and next meeting #192; Monero official 0.18.5.4 release page; Kraken XMR/USD. #XMR
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My approach is to verify first, then participate. In the minutes of the Monero community’s October 26 technical meeting, someone asked whether the next version, 0.19, would be the FCMP hard fork. Maintainer selsta replied, “FCMP will be v0.20.” Participants also discussed releasing a non-hard-fork 0.19.x version first. The next technical meeting, scheduled for November 2 at 18:00 UTC, is listed in the official meta repository. The status of this information matters: it is a statement about the version direction made at a public developer meeting. It is not an official upgrade announcement, much less a confirmed activation date. The latest official software version currently listed on the Monero website is still 0.18.5.4, released on October 16.
FCMP++ is worth watching because it relates to Monero’s future privacy architecture and wallet compatibility. The meeting minutes also mention that developers are continuing to address review comments on the integration pull request, preparing a GUI program for the stress-test network, and emphasizing that some design details may still change in response to feedback. So the version number can help inform research into the roadmap, but what really affects users is code review, the test network, wallet support, the official release, and the network upgrade height. Interpreting “targeted for 0.20” as “the mainnet has already switched” conflates the development phase with production.
For the XMR market, I’m watching two transmission channels. One is that technical delivery could improve long-term privacy and usability; the other is whether users, miners, and exchanges can upgrade smoothly. If compatibility risks increase, that could actually add uncertainty in the short term. Binance Square’s current trending topics are mainly about Binance security and reserves, with no directly relevant, accurate trending tag for FCMP. Nor does Binance’s notice about stolen assets provide evidence that “funds have already flowed into XMR.” We can’t infer demand for privacy coins automatically from a security incident, much less frame a scheduled meeting as a realized catalyst.
As for the market reaction, at the time of writing, Kraken’s XMR/USD was around $605.65, with a 24-hour low of $588.50 and a high of $609.88. That’s slightly above the opening price of $599.03, but still below the intraday high. This shows a short-term rebound, but does not prove that the meeting minutes drove it. I’d treat around $610 as a confirmation level and around $588 as a risk level. If the price falls below $588 and fails to recover on a retest, the rebound thesis is invalidated. If it breaks above $610, I’d still wait for official updates on the code, testing, and release timeline rather than chase the price based on a single meeting discussion.
If I were trading this myself: I wouldn’t enter now. I’d only consider a small spot position on the long side, with no leverage. I’d open a test position equal to 2% of my total capital only if the price holds above $610 and then retests it without breaking below, and a subsequent official meeting or repository update provides a verifiable FCMP milestone. If either condition is missing, I’d remain in cash. The first target is $625, where I’d reduce the position by half; the second target is $640, where I’d close the rest in stages. I’d set the initial stop below $588, or act sooner if the loss reaches 0.3% of account capital. If the price falls back below $610 and stays there after entry, or the development team explicitly changes the upgrade path, I’d close the remaining position early. If the conditions aren’t met, there’s no trade—and I make no claim of profit.
Sources: Monero meta repository technical meeting #191 and next meeting #192; Monero official 0.18.5.4 release page; Kraken XMR/USD. #XMR
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
