Nasdaq fell 2.86% overnight, but $BTC held 76,300 and recovered to 77,500 | October 31 morning
First, the most counterintuitive point: U.S. stocks really did fall last night, but $BTC really didn’t follow them all the way down.
At the October 30 close, the Nasdaq was down 2.86% at 25,437, its lowest level in three months. The S&P 500 fell 1.82%, the Dow Jones 1.09%, and the semiconductor index 7.2%. Intel plunged 28.58% in a single day, its worst day since the 1970s. The trigger was weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance, combined with the market reassessing returns on AI spending. That same night, $BTC dipped to a low of 76,326 at 2 a.m. Beijing time, but the 7 a.m. hourly candle closed at 77,368, and it was around 77,500 this morning, up about 0.3% over 24 hours. While U.S. stocks fell nearly 3%, Bitcoin had essentially recovered to where it started overnight: its decline didn’t keep pace, and it didn’t break its low.
My take is straightforward: this isn’t decoupling; it just withstood the first wave. Last night I was saying “expiration brought no direction, and the center of gravity is shifting lower.” The overnight low held and the price recovered by the close, so I’ll amend that statement—but the big picture hasn’t changed. Not a single hourly candle closed back above 80,000 yesterday, and October is all but certain to finish down about 8%. That would be the second consecutive year October has ended in the red, so stop comforting yourself with “October always goes up.”
Today, keep an eye on three price levels and two events. On price: below, watch the overnight low of 76,326; technical levels cited by the media are also around 76,000–76,200. Above, watch the 24-hour high of 78,804. A close above that would be a sign of recovery; if it can’t break above, we’re still just grinding around 77,000. $ETH is around 2,249 and $BNB around 709. Both are holding up better than the broader market, but neither has made an independent move, so don’t read too much into them.
Neither of the two events is breaking news; they’re old commitments coming due today. First, Binance’s proof-of-reserves snapshot: the second official update said it would be done within 12 hours, with results published before November 2. Based on the update issued overnight, that puts the deadline this afternoon. Second, the roughly 34-hour window for gradually resuming withdrawals, which falls around the afternoon of November 1. Withdrawals are still paused, so don’t jump to conclusions based on rumors. One quick note on altcoins: today is the LSK original-chain shutdown date. The 8 a.m. hourly candle spiked intraday to 0.2550 on volume more than ten times usual, but the candle hasn’t closed yet. And the shutdown is a structural event that was scheduled long ago, not new good news today—wait for the 9 a.m. close before chasing it. TRX remains below 0.34; that overnight breakout still hasn’t held by today.
Let’s be clear about the invalidation level: if an hourly candle for $BTC closes below 76,326, then my comment above that it “held up” is off the table, and I’ll reassess the 75,000–77,000 range. If it closes above 78,804, then we can talk about a rebound and recovery. This is just my personal market view, not investment advice; the market could prove me wrong either way.
Which side are you on today: A, 76,300 held, so look for 78,804 during the day; or B, the U.S. market aftershocks aren’t over, and $BTC will test below 76,000 again?
#BTC #美股 #Binance #LSK
First, the most counterintuitive point: U.S. stocks really did fall last night, but $BTC really didn’t follow them all the way down.
At the October 30 close, the Nasdaq was down 2.86% at 25,437, its lowest level in three months. The S&P 500 fell 1.82%, the Dow Jones 1.09%, and the semiconductor index 7.2%. Intel plunged 28.58% in a single day, its worst day since the 1970s. The trigger was weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance, combined with the market reassessing returns on AI spending. That same night, $BTC dipped to a low of 76,326 at 2 a.m. Beijing time, but the 7 a.m. hourly candle closed at 77,368, and it was around 77,500 this morning, up about 0.3% over 24 hours. While U.S. stocks fell nearly 3%, Bitcoin had essentially recovered to where it started overnight: its decline didn’t keep pace, and it didn’t break its low.
My take is straightforward: this isn’t decoupling; it just withstood the first wave. Last night I was saying “expiration brought no direction, and the center of gravity is shifting lower.” The overnight low held and the price recovered by the close, so I’ll amend that statement—but the big picture hasn’t changed. Not a single hourly candle closed back above 80,000 yesterday, and October is all but certain to finish down about 8%. That would be the second consecutive year October has ended in the red, so stop comforting yourself with “October always goes up.”
Today, keep an eye on three price levels and two events. On price: below, watch the overnight low of 76,326; technical levels cited by the media are also around 76,000–76,200. Above, watch the 24-hour high of 78,804. A close above that would be a sign of recovery; if it can’t break above, we’re still just grinding around 77,000. $ETH is around 2,249 and $BNB around 709. Both are holding up better than the broader market, but neither has made an independent move, so don’t read too much into them.
Neither of the two events is breaking news; they’re old commitments coming due today. First, Binance’s proof-of-reserves snapshot: the second official update said it would be done within 12 hours, with results published before November 2. Based on the update issued overnight, that puts the deadline this afternoon. Second, the roughly 34-hour window for gradually resuming withdrawals, which falls around the afternoon of November 1. Withdrawals are still paused, so don’t jump to conclusions based on rumors. One quick note on altcoins: today is the LSK original-chain shutdown date. The 8 a.m. hourly candle spiked intraday to 0.2550 on volume more than ten times usual, but the candle hasn’t closed yet. And the shutdown is a structural event that was scheduled long ago, not new good news today—wait for the 9 a.m. close before chasing it. TRX remains below 0.34; that overnight breakout still hasn’t held by today.
Let’s be clear about the invalidation level: if an hourly candle for $BTC closes below 76,326, then my comment above that it “held up” is off the table, and I’ll reassess the 75,000–77,000 range. If it closes above 78,804, then we can talk about a rebound and recovery. This is just my personal market view, not investment advice; the market could prove me wrong either way.
Which side are you on today: A, 76,300 held, so look for 78,804 during the day; or B, the U.S. market aftershocks aren’t over, and $BTC will test below 76,000 again?
#BTC #美股 #Binance #LSK
