Solana tests $100 this Tuesday, 10/27, right at its 200-day exponential moving average. $SOL was trading at $99.69 on Binance at 09:43 UTC, with a daily low of $99.46.
The idea circulating for two weeks was that Alpenglow would give SOL a boost. The numbers tell a different story.
- Alpenglow has been active since 10/21. Closing price that day: $106.97. Since then: -6.8%.
- Since the 9/27 close ($121.99), SOL is down 18.3%. Over the same period, $BTC is down 5.6% (Binance closing prices).
- US spot SOL ETFs saw $58.6M in outflows between 10/08 and 10/26, according to Farside, with outflows in 11 of 13 sessions, mostly via Bitwise BSOL. Cumulative inflows since launch remain positive at $1.52B.
- SOL funding on OKX is at +0.01%, so neutral. No visible panic—more like demand is fading.
What matters now is the $99.5–$100 zone. The 200-day EMA, calculated using Binance closing prices, is at $99.80. And SOL hasn't closed a day below $100 since 9/16.
In my view, a technical upgrade doesn't replace inflows. As long as ETFs are seeing outflows and BTC remains under pressure ahead of the Fed on 10/28, SOL remains the weakest link among the majors this month.
Two near-term paths. A daily close below $99.5 would open the way toward $95.82, the low from 9/15. Conversely, reclaiming $102.73 (the high over the past 24 hours) would put the 50-day EMA near $105.7 back in play.
Question: In your view, is $100 for SOL still holding as support, or is it a level the market will eventually break after the Fed?
#Solana #SOL
The idea circulating for two weeks was that Alpenglow would give SOL a boost. The numbers tell a different story.
- Alpenglow has been active since 10/21. Closing price that day: $106.97. Since then: -6.8%.
- Since the 9/27 close ($121.99), SOL is down 18.3%. Over the same period, $BTC is down 5.6% (Binance closing prices).
- US spot SOL ETFs saw $58.6M in outflows between 10/08 and 10/26, according to Farside, with outflows in 11 of 13 sessions, mostly via Bitwise BSOL. Cumulative inflows since launch remain positive at $1.52B.
- SOL funding on OKX is at +0.01%, so neutral. No visible panic—more like demand is fading.
What matters now is the $99.5–$100 zone. The 200-day EMA, calculated using Binance closing prices, is at $99.80. And SOL hasn't closed a day below $100 since 9/16.
In my view, a technical upgrade doesn't replace inflows. As long as ETFs are seeing outflows and BTC remains under pressure ahead of the Fed on 10/28, SOL remains the weakest link among the majors this month.
Two near-term paths. A daily close below $99.5 would open the way toward $95.82, the low from 9/15. Conversely, reclaiming $102.73 (the high over the past 24 hours) would put the 50-day EMA near $105.7 back in play.
Question: In your view, is $100 for SOL still holding as support, or is it a level the market will eventually break after the Fed?
#Solana #SOL
