From the low of $80,394 on Oct 8, $BTC it rebounded to $83,054 two days later. Looking only at the price chart, it seems selling pressure has eased.

But volume tells a completely different story. On the two days when prices fell the most (Oct 7–8), BTC trading volume reached 20,838 and 21,677 BTC, far above the usual tens of thousands of BTC traded per day.

Then, on the two days when prices rebounded (Oct 9–10), volume fell back to 12,302 and then 6,324 BTC. It dropped by nearly half in just one day, to less than a third of the volume seen during the sharpest sell-off.

This isn’t the first time this pattern has appeared. The previous rally, from $84,754 to $86,530 on Oct. 3–4, also played out on very low volume, with just 6,890 and 7,993 BTC traded per day.

Three days after that weak rally, the price turned around and fell in one straight run, shedding more than $6,000 to hit a low of $80,394. A rally with little participation came before a sharp decline.

This is where volume tells a different story from price. When the price falls and volume rises, it means a lot of people are selling at once. That selling pressure is real, not just a few scattered orders.

When the price rises while volume gradually declines, the opposite is true. If fewer and fewer people are pushing the price up and it still climbs, it’s usually because sellers have temporarily stepped back—not because fresh money is flowing in to buy.

That’s the old principle of price-volume analysis. A trend backed by volume is more credible; a trend moving against volume may be a fake rebound. The market has just shown us an example of that this week.

The two-day rebound in $BTC fell right into that suspicious category. The price rose, but market participation thinned out rather than growing.

Of course, this isn’t an absolute rule, and I could be wrong this time. If the price keeps rising over the next few days and volume rises along with it, or volume stays high as the price retests the $85,550–$86,530 zone—the highs before the recent decline—that would signal that fresh money has genuinely returned.

On the other hand, if the price reaches that zone while volume is still trickling in like it has over the past two days, this is most likely just another technical rebound before turning back down, like the move on Oct. 3–4.

A level to keep an eye on: watch volume whenever the price approaches $85,550–$86,530 again. A surge in volume there means one thing; limp volume means something entirely different. This week’s price action offers a very recent example to compare against.

Are you just looking at the green candle and forgetting to glance at the volume bars underneath?

Personal observation, not investment advice

#TheoDõiFOMC #TinFed #BTC