According to CNBC, JPMorgan said the U.S. midterm elections could reshuffle stock market winners depending on which party controls Congress, with strategists calling the vote one of the year's most anticipated political catalysts. The bank said the equity impact across outcomes is likely to be more nuanced and to favor stock picking, and it highlighted baskets of stocks that could benefit from either a split Congress or a Democratic sweep.

JPMorgan said a gridlock scenario, in which Congress is split, would likely be the most favorable because it would limit policy risk. The bank said congressional gridlock has been associated with positive S&P 500 returns since 1950, with the index rising 21% over the two-year congressional term after elections that produced gridlock, versus 18% under single-party control. It also said the S&P 500 is up about 60% from the start of the presidential cycle, which could limit some upside. Stocks JPMorgan flagged for a gridlock outcome included Gilead Sciences, Oracle, Meta Platforms and Sherwin-Williams.

For a Democratic Blue Wave, JPMorgan said hospitals, Medicaid-focused managed care, municipal water and environmental-services providers, and renewable-exposed utilities could benefit. In a lower-probability Red Wall scenario, where Republicans keep control of Congress, the bank said the policy backdrop would be most supportive for the AI infrastructure buildout and would favor data centers, traditional energy, nuclear power, financials, defense and cybersecurity. JPMorgan said AI capex momentum is expected to remain intact after the midterms and strengthen in 2027 and 2028.