Nonfarm payrolls plunged to 29,000, with the unemployment rate rising back to 4.2%, quickly throwing the previous interest-rate pricing logic into disarray. US stocks—especially the Nasdaq and the S&P—gapped higher at the open. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly pulled back to around 5.2%, and the long-overdue easing expectations in an instant triggered a pulse of buying in risk assets.
In this cross-market linkage, the crypto tape proved especially sensitive. $BTC had previously completed a clean and decisive sweep of losses with sharp up-and-down wicks between $87,200 and $85,200. It then followed the rebound in US equities, swinging back to the $86,000 area in a tight tug-of-war. Behind the violent swings is the tug-of-war between shifting macro expectations and intermittent outflows of spot ETF capital.
The sentiment boost from US equities is still unfolding, but the repeated whipsaws in long-end Treasury yields are a reminder that forward inflation has not been fully cooled. Whether price can build an effective support level above $86,000 depends not only on how strongly liquidity from US equities is absorbed, but also on whether subsequent inflation data can truly confirm the rate-cut path.
In this cross-market linkage, the crypto tape proved especially sensitive. $BTC had previously completed a clean and decisive sweep of losses with sharp up-and-down wicks between $87,200 and $85,200. It then followed the rebound in US equities, swinging back to the $86,000 area in a tight tug-of-war. Behind the violent swings is the tug-of-war between shifting macro expectations and intermittent outflows of spot ETF capital.
The sentiment boost from US equities is still unfolding, but the repeated whipsaws in long-end Treasury yields are a reminder that forward inflation has not been fully cooled. Whether price can build an effective support level above $86,000 depends not only on how strongly liquidity from US equities is absorbed, but also on whether subsequent inflation data can truly confirm the rate-cut path.