Hormuz is off the table again—$BTC should we really panic this time?
A few days ago, Iran floated a plan to reopen Hormuz in 7 days. Oil prices once fell below $100, and the market quickly traded the narrative of “war cooling, inflation easing, risk assets catching a breather.” Now that Trump has rejected the proposal, the script has taken another turn.
But BTC hasn’t seen a panic sell-off and is still hovering around $84,000. What’s more interesting is that in the past few days, BTC futures OI has actually dropped by about $1.7 billion, showing leverage is fading; at the same time, spot ETFs have seen seven straight days of net inflows totaling about $2.98 billion, so spot money is still providing support.
Right now, the market is watching not just whether Hormuz stays open, but whether oil prices will move back up, and whether high oil prices will reignite inflation and rate expectations. At the moment, BTC’s structure actually doesn’t look that fragile: ETF money is coming in and leverage is declining. If oil prices suddenly surge again while ETF inflows weaken at the same time, that would be when things get truly uncomfortable.
A few days ago, Iran floated a plan to reopen Hormuz in 7 days. Oil prices once fell below $100, and the market quickly traded the narrative of “war cooling, inflation easing, risk assets catching a breather.” Now that Trump has rejected the proposal, the script has taken another turn.
But BTC hasn’t seen a panic sell-off and is still hovering around $84,000. What’s more interesting is that in the past few days, BTC futures OI has actually dropped by about $1.7 billion, showing leverage is fading; at the same time, spot ETFs have seen seven straight days of net inflows totaling about $2.98 billion, so spot money is still providing support.
Right now, the market is watching not just whether Hormuz stays open, but whether oil prices will move back up, and whether high oil prices will reignite inflation and rate expectations. At the moment, BTC’s structure actually doesn’t look that fragile: ETF money is coming in and leverage is declining. If oil prices suddenly surge again while ETF inflows weaken at the same time, that would be when things get truly uncomfortable.