$MET 月 line dropped from 1.71 to 0.0941, down 94%, then it sideways for two months at the bottom before rebounding 30%. It looks like a base is being built, but in reality the chip (position) structure has already changed.
If you check the allocation table: 48% of the tokens were unlocked directly on the TGE day. The remaining 52% from the team and reserves starts from the month after the TGE and is released linearly over six years. A fixed 22 million tokens are released each quarter. More importantly, there was a group of on-chain addresses that collectively held 72% of the supply. Once that concentration starts reducing holdings, the market simply can’t absorb it.
There’s also a fundamental figure worth a closer look. The protocol’s 30-day fee revenue is $20.3 million, but after the sell pressure driven by spot outflows of $256 million, it still shows net inflows—meaning someone is using the revenue numbers to distribute (sell) into the market. During the 18% rally on September 11th, the momentum came from perpetual contracts and news, not from genuine spot buying. Once the incentive campaign ends, the reason for holding disappears.
On the technical side: above the 0.38 area, a dense成交 volume zone from 0.45 to 0.60 is sitting like overhead supply—that’s the trapped long/locked-in positions from when it fell from 1.71. When the rebound reaches this range, every layer is sell orders for people breaking even.
Short directly from 0.38 to 0.40, place the stop loss above 0.50. First target: 0.18. If it breaks down, look for 0.09。
If you check the allocation table: 48% of the tokens were unlocked directly on the TGE day. The remaining 52% from the team and reserves starts from the month after the TGE and is released linearly over six years. A fixed 22 million tokens are released each quarter. More importantly, there was a group of on-chain addresses that collectively held 72% of the supply. Once that concentration starts reducing holdings, the market simply can’t absorb it.
There’s also a fundamental figure worth a closer look. The protocol’s 30-day fee revenue is $20.3 million, but after the sell pressure driven by spot outflows of $256 million, it still shows net inflows—meaning someone is using the revenue numbers to distribute (sell) into the market. During the 18% rally on September 11th, the momentum came from perpetual contracts and news, not from genuine spot buying. Once the incentive campaign ends, the reason for holding disappears.
On the technical side: above the 0.38 area, a dense成交 volume zone from 0.45 to 0.60 is sitting like overhead supply—that’s the trapped long/locked-in positions from when it fell from 1.71. When the rebound reaches this range, every layer is sell orders for people breaking even.
Short directly from 0.38 to 0.40, place the stop loss above 0.50. First target: 0.18. If it breaks down, look for 0.09。
